WASHINGTON -- There's little doubt that Nancy Pelosi will be reelected House speaker when the new Congress convenes Sunday.
The only woman in history to serve as speaker, the California Democrat has a reputation as a formidable vote-counter and wily deal-cutter. Those skills have helped her fend off threats and cement her as leader of her party in the House since 2003, and seem likely to carry her on Sunday, when the Constitution requires the new Congress to begin.
"Yeah, I do," Pelosi told a reporter this week when asked if she had the votes wrapped up.
Pelosi told reporters Wednesday that Rep.-elect Mariannette Miller-Meeks, R-Iowa, will be sworn in, even as Democratic opponent Rita Hart's challenge to the election results remains under review by the House. Miller-Meeks is certain to vote against Pelosi to be speaker.
Even so, the terrain Pelosi faces will allow almost no margin for error.
The full House elects the speaker, and Democrats will have the chamber's smallest majority in 20 years in a vote in which Republicans are certain to vote unanimously against her, joined by a few Democrats. Democrats will have a 222-211 edge, with one race still undecided and one vacancy after Rep.-elect Luke Letlow, R-La., died Tuesday after battling covid-19.
The coronavirus pandemic, combined with routine illnesses and the usual risks of wintertime travel, could make attendance unpredictable for the first House roll call in months that lawmakers will have to attend in person. To avoid risks of exposure to covid-19, the House altered its rules this year to let its members vote by proxy from their homes, but that change dies with the old Congress.
"I'm fine," Pelosi said when asked if covid-19 absences are a concern.
The speaker's election, in which members traditionally vote verbally in alphabetical order, has long been the first vote taken by the new House. Because of covid-19 concerns, lawmakers will be voting in groups in a roll call expected to last three to four hours.
"It's extraordinarily tricky" for Pelosi, said Rep. Tom Cole, R-Okla., an 18-year congressional veteran. Still, he said, he expects her to prevail "because I don't see what the alternative is" for Democrats.
To make sure they're at full strength, both parties' leaders are urging lawmakers to take health precautions and return to Washington well ahead of Sunday to avoid travel snags.
In memos this week, Congress' chief physician, Dr. Brian Monahan, and House Sergeant at Arms Paul Irving told House members that any guests, including family members, will have to follow local District of Columbia requirements for covid-19 testing.
Pelosi retains the support of most Democrats, who revere her for leading their 2018 recapture of House control and their battles against President Donald Trump. She's kept her party's moderates and progressives largely united, and raised plenty of campaign cash.
But at 80, about the same age as her top two lieutenants, Pelosi remains a source of frustration for younger Democrats. Discontent and division have grown after expected gains in November's elections evaporated and 12 Democrats lost House seats, prompting calls for fresh messengers in response to criticism that party leaders did a poor job of campaigning on the country's deep economic problems.
No Democratic rival to Pelosi has emerged, greatly diminishing the odds she'll be toppled. Republicans are expected to back Rep. Kevin McCarthy of California for speaker, but he seems destined to become minority leader again.
