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Rick Lee's Oaklawn selections and analysis

by Rick Lee | March 25, 2021 at 2:27 a.m.

LEE'S LOCK Warrior's Charge in the eighth

BEST BET Sir Brahms in the fifth

LONG SHOT Unherdof in the sixth

SUNDAY'S RESULTS 5-10 (50%)

MEET 82-255 (32.2%)

CONFIDENCE RATINGS

* * * * confident choice

* * * plenty to like

* * things to like

* educated guess

1 Purse $27,000, 6 furlongs, 3-year-olds and up, Arkansas-bred, maiden claiming $10,000

PAPA STAR* * * finished a close second just two races back at a higher claiming price, and the class dropper appears to be the controlling speed. GENTLE KNIGHT was a fast-closing third after a slightly troubled start in an encouraging career debut. Moreover, he is taking a drop in claiming price. JESSE JONES was forwardly placed in a fifth-place return from a long layoff, and he is likely to be closer to the early leaders in this race.

PP HORSEJOCKEYTRAINERODDS

5 Papa StarCabreraStuart7-2

7 Gentle KnightHarrCline5-2

2 Jesse JonesWDe La CruzMartin9-2

1 Spirit SoulMojicaMartin5-1

9 Daddy JackEramiaPetalino8-1

10 Rock City RocketTohillMartin6-1

6 Moonshine MomentArrietaDeville15-1

8 Fire Two Point OWalesWestermann15-1

4 Cyber ShoesCamachoSoto15-1

3 My Kinda TetonMoralesRhea30-1

2 Purse $27,000, 6 furlongs, 4-year-olds and up, claiming $6,250

ALL SHACKED UP * * has raced close to the pace in consecutive second-place sprint finishes. He is taking a drop in class and may lead this field past every pole. LOOKIN FOR EIGHT earned a strong Beyer figure in a one-turn mile at Churchill. He is back sprinting and adding blinkers after a pair of one-paced route races. KID'S MISCHIEF pushed a fast pace going two turns in his 2021 debut, and he is cutting back to a sprint. He is switching from an apprentice to a leading rider.

PP HORSEJOCKEYTRAINERODDS

5 All Shacked UpTohillHartman3-1

6 Lookin for EightCabreraBroberg4-1

1 Kid's MischiefCohenMcKnight15-1

8 Sharp ArtMoralesVance5-2

7 RecountLoveberryMartin9-2

2 FirehornCanchariMorse10-1

4 Baquero FliesCourtLukas5-1

3 Seek N JusticeMojicaLitfin15-1

3 Purse $93,000, 1 1/16 miles, 3-year-olds and up, maiden special weight

SUPER CONSTITUTION * * is having blinkers removed after a useful front-running sprint effort. He is likely the pace-setter, and he is bred to carry his speed this far. ENID finished fourth in an unusually fast race when making his career debut, and he is bred top and bottom to improve at route distances. SAQEEL has finished with energy in a pair of recent in-the-money finishes, and his two-turn experience may be the difference.

PP HORSEJOCKEYTRAINERODDS

2 Super ConstitutionCanchariRobertson7-2

4 EnidTalamoMorse4-1

5 SaqeelGerouxPeitz3-1

3 Hype ManSantanaAsmussen9-2

1 Kid ShelleenArrietaContreras5-1

6 Quality RunWDe La CruzMartin6-1

7 My Favorite UncleVazquezLukas12-1

4 Purse $27,000, 6 furlongs, 3-year-olds and up, Arkansas-bred, maiden claiming $10,000

CINCO CATALINA * * trained well up to his debut, but tired after being forwardly placed. He has recorded a good subsequent breeze and deserves another chance while dropping to the bottom of the local maiden ranks. LOU'S ARROW has worked well up to his first race, and trainer Tim Martin gets his "go-to" rider David Cabrera. RUBIGINOUS may have tipped his hand on a speedy 4-furlong gate workout Feb. 28.

PP HORSEJOCKEYTRAINERODDS

3 Cinco CatalinaSantanaSadler3-1

10 Lou's ArrowCabreraMartin8-1

6 RubiginousCanchariMorse5-1

2 Warning LabelHarrCline4-1

8 Cyber MondayGonzalezGreen6-1

7 My Fortunate SonLoveberryMartin9-2

9 Stomping HotrodHamiltonMason15-1

5 DucktailWDe La CruzStuart8-1

4 Unbridled ShoesHebertWilliams30-1

1 Lucky SuspectMoralesHornsby20-1

5 Purse $105,000, 1 1/16 miles, 3-year-olds and up, Arkansas-bred, allowance

SIR BRAHMS* * * finished second in a fast and key sprint race when returning from vacation time. He has proven route ability and a class advantage. SUNDAY SERMON lost all chance at the break in his 2021 return, but he has recorded two strong subsequent breezes. He can steal this race with a good break from the gate. IMPLICATOR finished second in three of four races last season at Oaklawn, and he may not have cared for a sloppy track in his first start at the 2021 meet.

PP HORSEJOCKEYTRAINERODDS

4 Sir BrahmsArrietaContreras5-2

7 Sunday SermonLoveberryHornsby8-1

3 ImplicatorCabreraMoquett7-2

5 Private LakeWDe La CruzMartin6-1

6 C H JayCourtLoy6-1

1 Jimmie TQuinonezVon Hemel5-1

2 Cinnamon VictoryGarciaMedina9-2

8 Trophy DaddyMoralesAntwine20-1

6 Purse $27,000, 6 furlongs, fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up, maiden claiming $12,500

UNHERDOF* is an unraced filly with a winning female family. She had an encouraging gate work March 11, and winning trainer Doug Anderson has his best local success with today's rider aboard. JUST LIFE raced five wide in a photo-finish defeat against similar opposition, and she has a winning trainer-rider team. UNDECIDEDCERTAINTY earned the fastest last-race Beyer figure in a fifth-place finish against better, and she likely needed the race after a four-month freshening.

PP HORSEJOCKEYTRAINERODDS

6 UnherdofCanchariAnderson8-1

3 Just LifeGonzalezBarkley5-2

8 UndecidedcertaintyHarrCline8-1

10 PerfectiontodetailBowenMason8-1

11 She's an AngelCabreraBroberg8-1

5 Lil RespectEramiaMilligan5-1

1 Wicked ChocolateFletcherLoy15-1

9 X Marks the SpotArrietaBarkley7-2

4 Oreo GirlBorelBaker15-1

2 AnotherinthefireMoralesDeville8-1

7 Carrillo StreetHebertWilliams30-1

7 Purse $105,000, 1 mile, 3-year-olds, allowance optional claiming

SCARRED * * showed speed and promise in two races as a juvenile at Churchill Downs. The experienced two-turn runner may not have taken to a muddy track as a beaten post-time favorite in his 3-year-old debut. COUSIN LARRY is a steadily improving route runner who was beaten only a head at this level March 5. GERSHWIN tracked the leaders before drawing off to a 3-length sprint victory at Fair Grounds, and the lightly raced and improving colt is bred to improve at the distance.

PP HORSEJOCKEYTRAINERODDS

8 ScarredSantanaAsmussen3-1

6 Cousin LarryTorresJones5-2

7 GershwinGonzalezStidham9-2

5 Causeway JonesArrietaHollendorfer4-1

4 Stayin' Out LateGerouxAsmussen6-1

1 NotaryCourtLukas12-1

2 Lizard KingCabreraMoquett8-1

3 Sound the ChargeRoccoVon Hemel12-1

8 Purse $107,000, 1 mile, 4-year-olds and up, allowance

WARRIOR'S CHARGE * * * * has won three of six races at Oaklawn, including the Grade III Razorback Handicap. Furthermore, he is the controlling speed and ships fresh from Fair Grounds. MY SIXTH SENSE was a two-time winner last season at Oaklawn while earning competitive Beyer figures and showing a versatile running style. GUEST SUITE finished fourth with a less than ideal trip in a deceptive sprint tune-up, and he was a two-turn stake winner last winter at Oaklawn.

PP HORSEJOCKEYTRAINERODDS

6 Warrior's ChargeGerouxCox8-5

2 My Sixth SenseGarciaHobby4-1

4 Guest SuiteArrietaContreras5-2

5 Final JeopardyCabreraMorey6-1

1 Mailman MoneyCohenCalhoun4-1

3 Home BaseMojicaContreras8-1

9 Purse $27,500, 1 mile, fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up who have never won two races, claiming $10,000

MOONSHINE DANCING* * * rallied to second at this level just two races back sprinting, and she is back at a proper level after a one-paced route effort against much better. COMPETITIVE FIRE rallied from far back in a clear second-place route finish at this price March 11, and she keeps top veteran rider Joe Talamo. MS FALSETTO has sprinted well in three races at the meeting, and she is bred to route. Trainer Karl Broberg is beginning to heat up.

PP HORSEJOCKEYTRAINERODDS

10 Moonshine DancingGonzalezBarkley7-2

3 Competitive FireTalamoHolthus3-1

11 Ms FalsettoCabreraBroberg6-1

9 UnburntQuinonezSwearingen6-1

5 FlamingTorresVillafranco4-1

7 Some Would SayLoveberryRosin12-1

2 Dixieland CandyWDe La CruzStuart12-1

1 Peek a Boo I See UCanchariMoysey12-1

8 Kiss On FireRomanJacquot20-1

4 Get Off My TailMoralesMcKnight15-1

12 Western AttireHarrCline15-1

13 I'm ExceeLoveberryJacquot15-1

6 Lady PriestCourtDeatherage20-1

EXOTIC POSSIBILITIES

The fourth race starts a Pick-3 and the race should come down to my top three selections. The fifth race has a likely favorite in SIR BRAHMS, but SUNDAY SERMON has dangerous early speed and must be used. The sixth race is wide open, and spreading out in hope of a big price is recommended. The eighth race has a late double and should come down to MY SIXTH SENSE and WARRIOR'S CHARGE. In the ninth, I will single MOONSHINE DANCING.

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