New-case tally on rise; UAMS warns of risk for virus surge

Emily Parker, left, 15, of Russellville gets her first dose of the Pfizer covid vaccine Thursday May 13, 2021 in Little Rock from Physicians Assistant Rafael Rodriguez at the University of Arkansas for Medical Sciences vaccination clinic at the Centre at University Park. (Arkansas Democrat-Gazette/Staton Breidenthal)
Emily Parker, left, 15, of Russellville gets her first dose of the Pfizer covid vaccine Thursday May 13, 2021 in Little Rock from Physicians Assistant Rafael Rodriguez at the University of Arkansas for Medical Sciences vaccination clinic at the Centre at University Park. (Arkansas Democrat-Gazette/Staton Breidenthal)

Arkansas posted its largest increase in coronavirus cases in almost a month on Tuesday as a report from the University of Arkansas for Medical Sciences warned of the potential for a surge of infections fueled by faster-spreading variants and summer gatherings.

The 313 cases that were added to the state's tallies marked the first one-day jump that topped 300 since April 21.

Already at its highest level since May 4, the number of people hospitalized in the state with covid-19 rose by two, to 188.

The death toll from the virus, as tracked by the state Department of Health, rose by nine, to 5,805.

"With over 300 new cases today, we're reminded of the importance of getting vaccinated," Gov. Asa Hutchinson said in a tweet.

"COVID-19 is still present in our state and communities, but we have plenty of vaccine doses to put this pandemic behind us. Why risk COVID-19 when you can get vaccinated?"

A Health Department report also showed that the number of students at public elementary and secondary schools who have tested positive since June had surpassed 30,000 as of this week, although the number of active cases among students and employees had fallen since early last week.

In their latest forecast report, released Tuesday, researchers with UAMS' Fay W. Boozman College of Public Health said the state "has made great progress in its effort to vaccinate the public" but "may not be vaccinating enough people fast enough."

"There is a real danger Arkansas could once again be entering a period when the state will be on the upside of an exponential growth curve," the researchers wrote.

They noted that the number of new infections identified each day, while still well below the level it reached in early January, has trended slightly upward since early April, after the removal of the statewide mask mandate.

"Indeed, if we compare May 2020 to May 2021, the number of cases and the growth curves are remarkably similar," the researchers wrote.

A slowdown in testing means the state "is likely missing significant numbers of infections in young adults and children," the researchers wrote.

They described the United Kingdom coronavirus variant, which is thought to be more lethal as well as more transmissible than the original strain, as "the predominant variant in the state" and said the variant from Brazil is also "gaining a foothold."

"We are approaching the first of the summer holidays," the researchers wrote.

"Experience has taught us, when it comes to COVID-19, holidays are dangerous times. People congregate to enjoy family, friends, and the good weather. This is the time when the virus spreads easily."

The researchers continued to suggest offering discounts on products and other incentives to persuade people to get vaccinated.

Large employers should also "seriously discuss" making vaccinations mandatory once a vaccine is approved -- rather than being cleared on an emergency basis -- by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration, the researchers wrote.

The report predicted that the cumulative number of cases in the state will increase by more than 25,000 by July 15, with the total number of deaths rising by 50.

Act 977, signed by Hutchinson last month, prohibits state and local government agencies, aside from medical facilities owned or controlled by the state, from requiring coronavirus vaccinations.

Act 1030, which takes effect in late July, prohibits state and local governments from requiring proof of covid-19 vaccination "for any purpose."

NUMBERS 'CONCERNING'

The increase in cases on Tuesday was the first one in four days that was larger than the one a week earlier.

It came despite daily testing numbers that were lower than what the Health Department reported the previous Tuesday.

The 1,603 polymerase chain reaction, or PCR, test results that were reported were down by 71 from the number reported a week earlier, and the 802 antigen tests that were reported were down by 409.

State Epidemiologist Jennifer Dillaha said the percentage of tests in the state that are positive has been "inching up."

For tests performed during the week ending Monday, it was 4.9%, she said.

Hutchinson has said he wants to keep the percentage below 10%.

The number of the state's virus patients who were on ventilators rose Tuesday for the third straight day, going from 31 as of Monday to 32.

Dillaha called the increase in cases, hospitalizations and deaths "concerning" and said she suspected that the United Kingdom variant was at least partly to blame.

In the past week, the number of cases in the state that were identified as having been caused by the variant increased by 31, to 102.

The total number of cases caused by such variants is unknown because only a small percentage are tested to determine that.

Dillaha said it's "very possible" that activity over Memorial Day weekend later this month will lead to an uptick in cases.

"Of course, people who are fully vaccinated can safely go without wearing masks," Dillaha said. "My concern is that people who are not vaccinated will also go without wearing masks and increase risk not only to themselves but to others."

Along with the increase in cases found to have been caused by the United Kingdom variant, the Health Department reported that the number of cases identified as having been caused by variants from California rose by two, to 25, over the past week.

The number of cases confirmed to have been caused by the variant from Brazil grew by four, to 11, while those found to be caused by a variant first identified in the United Kingdom and Nigeria in December rose from one, to two.

Boone, Faulkner, Hot Spring and Pope counties joined Benton, Lonoke, Miller, Phillips, Poinsett, Pulaski and Washington counties on the list of counties where five to 20 cases have been found to have been caused by variants of concern.

The number of counties where between one and four such cases have been found fell from 25 to 22.

SCHOOL CASES

Among students at public elementary and secondary schools, the cumulative number of cases since June 15 grew by 187, to 30,071, from May 10 to Monday, according to Health Department reports.

The latest report listed 279 active covid-19 infections among students and staff members, down slightly from the 284 a week earlier.

Those totals are both below the level seen just before spring break week, when a March 18 report listed 302 active cases.

The state has a total enrollment of 479,432 students from pre-kindergarten through 12th grade, according to the state Department of Education.

School district data has often differed from case counts listed in Health Department reports.

For example, the department's report on Monday lists a cumulative number of 1,482 cases among students and staff members at the Bentonville School District, one of the state's largest districts.

But the district's website listed a total of 961 covid-19 cases.

"It is possible that schools have different reporting and analysis methodologies from ADH; therefore, direct comparison between ADH reports and reports from non-ADH sources may result in variations," Health Department spokeswoman Danyelle McNeill said in an email.

Cumulative public school cases totaled 44,425 as of Monday, including 11,939 among staff members and others not categorized as either student or staff cases, according to the Health Department data.

Among colleges and universities, the number of active cases among students and employees fell by 28, to 45, from May 10 to Monday.

McNeill said schools have done a good job communicating new cases to the Health Department.

"Schools are to report all cases they are aware of in all staff and students that attend their school. Schools have done an excellent job of verbally reporting cases to ADH when they find out about them," McNeill said.

She said a phone hotline set up specifically for school leaders to talk with health officials has served as an "early warning system" of sorts.

"It has also allowed ADH to know about these cases quickly so case investigation/contact tracing can work faster; this is a more active case finding system than simply waiting for reports to get sent in from labs and health care providers," McNeill said.

Other states, including Mississippi, have schools report covid-19 cases to health officials.

McNeill said no decision has been made about whether covid-19 reporting for schools will continue in the summer or the fall.

VACCINATION PACE SLOWS

Meanwhile, despite the authorization last week of the Pfizer vaccine for children age 12-15, Health Department figures have shown the pace of immunizations in Arkansas continuing to slow.

The average number of doses administered per day over a rolling seven-day period to people of all ages, including second doses of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines, fell from about 8,822 as of Monday to 8,573 as of Tuesday.

The number has mostly fallen since it peaked at more than 23,000 in early April.

Dillaha said most medical clinics are just getting started with vaccinations for the new age group.

She noted that the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention didn't post updated clinical guidance on its website until late Friday.

Also, the Health Department was still working this week to make Pfizer shots available to the 374 health care providers, including the department's 92 local health units, that participate in a federal program that provides free vaccinations for children.

McNeill said providers reported administering Pfizer shots to 3,918 children age 12-15 -- or about 2% of the estimated 160,000 Arkansans in that age group -- as of Tuesday.

At the Beebe High School Cafeteria, Augusta-based ARCare, a federally funded community health center, administered initial Pfizer doses on Tuesday to 116 students in grades six-12, Beebe School District spokeswoman Jessica Prothro said.

The shots were offered to all 1,700 students in those grades and administered to the ones who brought back consent forms signed by their parents, she said.

"We were happy with the student participation," Prothro said.

"We know lots of students may have already had their vaccine, so we weren't expecting huge numbers, but we were glad to offer it to the ones who wanted it or needed it today."

St. Bernards Healthcare in Jonesboro administered initial Pfizer doses to 107 children in grades seven through 12 who showed up for free sports physicals the health system performed on Saturday at Arkansas State University's First National Bank Arena, health system spokesman Mitchell Nail said.

He said other children got their shots on Friday at the health system's weekly vaccination clinic, at St. Bernards Auditorium, where the overall turnout was up from the previous week.

"We're pleased with the response that we're getting from individuals of that age group," Nail said.

In light of the overall slowdown in vaccinations, however, he said the clinic is moving this week from the auditorium to the St. Bernards Medical Center infusion center.

He said the move will eliminate the need to set up the temporary clinic in the auditorium each week while also freeing it up for other events.

'POP-UP' CLINICS

To encourage more people to get the shots, state officials announced plans earlier this month to hold "pop-up clinics" at festivals, rodeos and other events around the state over the next several months.

McNeill said 10 people received the single-shot Johnson & Johnson vaccine at one such clinic, at the Arkansas Made-Arkansas Proud Market on Saturday at War Memorial Stadium in Little Rock.

At the Arkansas Travelers game the same day in North Little Rock, 13 people received Johnson & Johnson shots at a clinic staffed by a Health Department nurse and volunteers with the Arkansas Medical Society.

That was up slightly from the 11 people who got Johnson & Johnson shots at a similar clinic during the Travelers' opening game, on May 4.

Mary Ann Mansfield, the Medical Society's administrative services director, said she wasn't disappointed with the response on Saturday.

Many people who stopped by the clinic said they'd already been vaccinated, she said. She said the volunteers, who included 11 UAMS medical students, gave out about 400 blue wristbands bearing the Medical Society's name and the message "got my shot."

"Anyone who had gotten a shot got a wristband, even if they had gotten it, obviously, someplace else," Mansfield said.

Other clinics are planned for Travelers games on May 27 and June 20.

Such events, Mansfield said, and the publicity for them help "normalize" the idea of getting the shots.

"I think the more ways that we can have people surrounded with it as just a normal part of life, or a good thing in life, to get this vaccine, I think it's great," Mansfield said.

According to the CDC, the number of Arkansans who had received at least one vaccine dose rose Tuesday by 3,860, to 1,138,400, or about 37.7% of the state's population.

The number who had been fully vaccinated rose by 3,115, to 886,519, or 29.4% of the population.

Among the states and District of Columbia, Arkansas continued to rank 44th in the percentage of residents who had received at least one vaccine dose.

It fell from No. 47 to No. 49, ahead of only Alabama and Mississippi, in the percentage of those who had been fully vaccinated.

Nationally, 47.7% of people had received at least one vaccine dose, and 37.5% were fully vaccinated.

ACTIVE CASES RISE

The average number of cases added to the Arkansas' tallies over a rolling seven-day period rose Tuesday by about 11, to 192.

That remained slightly below the average increase of 194 cases a day during the week that ended May 11.

The cases that were added Tuesday included 162 that were confirmed through PCR tests.

The other 151 were "probable" cases, which include those confirmed through less-sensitive antigen tests.

The state's cumulative count of cases rose to 339,162.

That comprised 265,148 confirmed cases and 74,014 probable ones.

The number of cases that were considered active rose by 49, to 1,970, as new cases outpaced recoveries.

Pulaski and Benton County tied for the largest number of new cases, with 43 each. Faulkner County had the next-highest number, 23, followed by Washington County, which had 18.

The Health Department didn't report any new cases among prison or jail inmates.

The state's death toll rose by eight, to 4,607, among confirmed cases and by one, to 1,198, among probable cases.

Among nursing home and assisted-living facility residents, the state's count of virus deaths rose by three, to 2,084.

Dillaha said all the deaths reported Tuesday happened within the past month.

The number of people who have ever been hospitalized in the state with covid-19 grew by 35, to 16,145.

The number of the state's virus patients who have ever been on a ventilator rose by two, to 1,647.

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