Views diverge on status of economic recovery

WASHINGTON -- As the U.S. economy is recovering from the effects of the coronavirus pandemic, conflicting views between the Biden administration and Republicans are shaping the political debate over President Joe Biden's infrastructure and jobs proposals, which would inject another $4 trillion into the economy, offset by tax increases on corporations and high-earners.

Republicans look at the economy and see a political liability for the Biden administration. Inflation is taking off, they warn, and worker shortages are threatening the viability of long-suffering small businesses.

Biden and his advisers assess the same set of conditions and reach a vastly different conclusion. The dislocations that are causing prices to rise quickly are likely to be temporary, they say. And while both the speed of the economic snapback and the power it has conferred on workers have come as something of a surprise, White House economic officials see a lot to like in the evolving trends.

Four months into Biden's term, Republicans say his economic agenda is already failing the country. The president's team says the state of the economy shows how he can deliver for workers.

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Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve sees its policies -- rock-bottom interest rates and monthly purchases of government-backed debt that are fueling lending and spending -- as helping heal the labor market and the overall economy.

Its top officials have maintained that the period of higher inflation expected this year will be temporary. And while policymakers have been surprised by some recent data points, they emphasize that is to be expected: After all, nobody has reopened the economy from a pandemic before.

Critics, including some liberal economists, look at the confidence coming from the White House and the Fed and see a risk: that policymakers will be too slow to change course in the face of a fast-changing backdrop. If companies continue to struggle to find workers and if prices shoot even higher, the critics warn, then the economy could overheat, hurting businesses and consumers and maybe even leading to another recession.

Republicans are faulting the White House for not ending a more generous unemployment benefit that they say is keeping workers on the sidelines, citing anecdotes from business leaders around the country. At least 21 Republican-led states have already announced that they will cease offering the $300 supplement.

"We should be on track for a fantastic American comeback summer, full steam ahead," Sen. Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, the Republican leader, said this month on the chamber floor. "From vaccinations to job growth, the new Biden administration inherited favorable trends in every direction."

"But in several important ways, the decisions of elected Democrats have contributed to slowing the return to normalcy," he added.

Critics have also questioned the wisdom of the Fed's commitment to keeping interest rates low and buying bonds even as prices begin to rise. Sen. Pat Toomey, R-Pa., said last month that while the Fed "maintains that this bout of inflation will be mild and temporary," it "may be time for the central bank to consider the alternative."

Biden's aides say they continue to monitor the threat that consumer prices could spiral upward, forcing a rapid policy response that could slam the brakes on economic growth. They say that those risks remain low and that they see no reason to change course on the president's agenda, including proposed infrastructure and social programs that Biden asserts will bolster the economy for years to come. That agenda could prove a more difficult sell, even among congressional Democrats, if job growth continues to disappoint and inflation soars higher than expected.

Fed officials also remain undaunted. They've shown no sign of raising interest rates soon and are continuing to buy $120 billion in government-backed bonds each month. Officials have given only the earliest hints that they might begin to tiptoe away from that emergency policy setting. They argue that their job is to manage risks and that the risk of withdrawing help early is bigger than the risk that the economy will overheat.

Voters give Biden high marks for his economic stewardship thus far, polls show. But recent financial data has created an uncomfortable moment for the White House -- and the Fed -- and has sharpened the political and economic risks if Biden's advisers are proved wrong.

The Consumer Price Index surprised economists by rocketing 4.2% in April from a year earlier as technical data quirks, supply bottlenecks and resurgent demand combined to push the data point far above the 3.6% gain that analysts had expected. Airfares and hotel rates jumped as demand for travel rebounds, and used-car prices picked up sharply as shortages of semiconductors and other parts limit vehicle production.

Businesses added 266,000 net jobs in April, far short of the 1 million that economists had predicted. That came as hiring slowed across many sectors and as the number of jobs in employment categories including couriers, temporary help workers and grocery store employees actually declined.

Reasons for the slowdown remain a matter of dispute. Companies surveyed by the Fed have cited various reasons for the worker shortage, including health concerns, early retirements, child care responsibilities and the increased unemployment benefits.

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