Bucs won't regret letting Winston go

TAMPA, Fla. -- No need for hindsight, scrutiny or reassessment around here.

The decision to go all-in and sign 40-something Tom Brady in March of 2020 was the right call no matter how you perceive the past or picture the future.

The calculus is simple. Brady won. Bucs fans won. Bruce Arians, Jason Licht, the Glazers, all won. From a Tampa Bay perspective, the Brady signing ranks with the hirings of Tony Dungy and Jon Gruden as axis-shifting moments in franchise history.

But that doesn't mean the book is totally closed.

There is still one final story to be told. One character whose fate has yet to be determined. Jameis Winston will face the Bucs this weekend in New Orleans with his career, reputation and destiny just as uncertain as they ever were during his five seasons in Tampa Bay.

He's a starter once again, but he's not yet a star. He's shown signs of growth, but we've seen that before. He seemingly still has the talent and determination to be a franchise savior, but it's unclear whether he has the subtle qualities that separate great quarterbacks from the rest.

Through six games as the Saints' starter, Winston has been mostly adequate. He had an outstanding day in the season opener against the Packers but was terrible the following week against Carolina.

It's true that, a little more than one-third into the season, Winston has the highest passer rating of his career at 102.4. He's also cut his interception rate by more than half from his final season in Tampa Bay, and he leads the NFL in the ratio of touchdown passes.

Still, it doesn't feel as if the world is sold on Winston. Even his own coach seems leery of his potential for mistakes. The Saints have attempted fewer passes per game than any team in the NFL.

New Orleans has been winning with a stellar defense and a ground game led by Alvin Kamara. Winston, at this point, is still playing a complementary role.

Earlier this season, former New Orleans star Drew Brees said the 2021 offense lacked tempo. It lacked rhythm. The Saints were hitting the occasional downfield throw but were struggling with the short, ball-control passing game that was a staple during the Brees era.

The analysts at Pro Football Focus tend to agree. Winston has one of the highest ratios of big-time throws in the league, but his overall grade is near the bottom.

On the Manning brothers simulcast of Monday Night Football, Brees suggested Winston's conservative start may even be self-imposed, which isn't a bad thing.

"I think he's come a long way. I think he recognizes the things in Tampa that got him in trouble; probably being over-aggressive at times," Brees said. "And listen, at times, that was just because he felt like he had to score 30-35 points a game."

It's probably overkill to say the Saints are 4-2 because of Winston, but it's certainly not fair to say they are 4-2 in spite of him. Winston's contributions are hard to define, which is a common theme in his career.

Eight quarterbacks in NFL history have thrown for more than 5,000 yards in a season. Eleven quarterbacks have thrown 30 or more interceptions. Winston is the only one on both lists.

"I think he's a really good quarterback in this league. He can make plays other guys can't make, he makes plays that very few people in this league can make," Bucs offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich said. "Always thought he was a special, unique guy, I feel the same way about him now."

So is there still a chance Winston could become a star? Yes. Is there a chance he could win a Super Bowl, maybe even more than one? Absolutely.

But is there a scenario where the Bucs regret cutting ties with Winston? Not a chance.

Even if Winston, 27, goes on to have a long career -- and becomes the fourth ex-Buc quarterback to win a Super Bowl -- there should be no regrets about losing the No. 1 pick in the 2015 draft.

What the Bucs did was swap Winston's still untapped potential for a chance to win right away in 2020. If that seemed risky 20 months ago, it's now an indisputable part of NFL and Tampa Bay lore.

The Bucs do not win last season's Super Bowl without Brady. And they're in better shape in 2021 because of Brady, too.

Now, there's a chance they could be looking longingly in Winston's direction in a few years, but that's the price you pay. Tampa Bay had a window of opportunity in 2020-21 and they pounced on it.

If Winston hits his prime in 2023 when Brady is retired and the team is in salary-cap purgatory, Bucs fans should not shed any tears. In fact, they should applaud a quarterback who worked hard to succeed here but just fell short.

The decision to toss Winston aside to sign Brady has worked out as well as anyone could have hoped in Tampa Bay. Will it one day work out for Winston, too?

That's still up to him.

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