Those of us who follow demographic trends in Arkansas had a sense of where things were going when it came to the 2020 census.
The only surprise was just how dramatic the numbers were as most parts of rural Arkansas bled population. Northwest Arkansas remains one of the fastest-growing areas of the country. The Little Rock metropolitan area and what I now call the Jonesboro-Paragould corridor are seeing solid growth. Those three areas will be the population growth engines in Arkansas for years to come.
Some highlights:
• Benton and Washington counties grew by 105,800 people during the decade since the 2010 census. Benton County's population increased by 62,994. That's 28.5 percent. Washington County's population grew by 42,806. That's 21.1 percent.
• Fayetteville passed Fort Smith as the state's second-largest city. Fayetteville grew from 73,580 to 93,949 (27.7 percent). Fort Smith grew from 86,209 to 89,142 (3.4 percent).
• Jonesboro grew from 67,263 to 78,576 (16.8 percent). Paragould grew from 26,113 to 29,537 (13.1 percent).
• The six-county Little Rock metro area came in at 748,031, a growth rate of 6.9 percent. Pulaski County is still the state's largest county with 399,125 people, having grown 4.3 percent.
• Faulkner County had 123,498 residents, and Saline County had 123,416. Saline County grew 15.2 percent, and Faulkner County grew 9.1 percent.
• Little Rock passed the 200,000 mark for the first time at 202,591. Its growth rate was 4.7 percent.
• North Little Rock and Conway were almost identical in population. North Little Rock had 64,591 residents, and Conway had 64,134. The growth rates were 3.7 percent for North Little Rock and 8.9 percent for Conway.
• Of the state's 75 counties, 53 lost population. Phillips County fell from 21,757 to 16,568. That's a 23.8 percent drop. The county seat of Helena declined in population from 12,282 to 9,519 (a 22.5 percent decline).
• Delta population losses weren't confined to Phillips County. St. Francis County lost 18.3 percent, Lee County lost 17.5 percent, Monroe County lost 16.6 percent, Woodruff County lost 13.7 percent and Chicot County lost 13.5 percent.
• Most counties in south Arkansas also lost population. Dallas County lost 20.1 percent, Lafayette County lost 17.5 percent, Ouachita County lost 13.3 percent, and Jefferson County and Cleveland County each lost 13.1 percent.
My greatest frustration during the years I spent with the Delta Regional Authority--which does economic and community development in parts of eight states--was dealing with local leaders stuck in what I refer to as the 1960s and 1970s industrial development mode. You know, chasing smokestacks.
After World War II, many areas of the rural South began rapidly losing population due to the mechanization of agriculture. The massive research and development initiatives that were part of the war effort changed everything. If you were on a cotton plantation that had required 200 sharecroppers and tenant farmers before the war, you could raise a crop of cotton a few years after the war with no more than 20 people.
The mechanical cotton picker, improved seed varieties, and better insecticides and herbicides were developed. Now, in the 21st century, a landowner can farm that same amount of property with two or three people and achieve record yields.
In the American boom years after World War II, these former Southern sharecroppers and tenant farmers found work in the steel and automobile factories of the Upper Midwest. They deserted the South for places such as Chicago, Cleveland and Detroit.
In an attempt to stem this outmigration, business and civic leaders in Southern states tried to attract manufacturing facilities that took advantage of low-skilled labor. These were often cut-and-sew operations.
One can drive across rural Arkansas and see abandoned buildings on the edges of towns; structures that once housed shirt or shoe factories. These manufacturing jobs left years ago for Central America or southeast Asia. Yet too many people still have as their idea of economic development the building of industrial parks.
I want to scream at them that economic and community development is far different in the knowledge-based economy of the 21st century. It's no longer about attracting smokestacks. It's about attracting talented people.
For years, economic development was based on luring a factory that would bring hundreds of jobs and help a town grow larger. We must get past the idea that bigger is better. I don't see most Arkansas towns outside northwest Arkansas, the Little Rock metro area, or the Jonesboro-Paragould corridor getting larger in the next decade. But that doesn't mean they can't be better.
I once asked a prominent Arkansas historian what advice he would give Arkansans if he could go back in time a century or more.
"Move to town," he answered.
Many small Arkansas towns were based on the sharecropping and tenant farming system. They were close to thousands of farm workers. These communities were where those people came to shop and entertain themselves. The farm workers are long gone, and the towns will continue to shrink since there's no economic reason for them to exist. That's the hard economic reality for rural Arkansas. Urbanization is speeding up.
When I was at DRA, we identified what we called critical mass communities. These are towns with amenities such as hospitals and institutions of higher learning that remain critical in areas that otherwise are losing population.
How do you ensure that the place you live is a critical mass community? Some suggestions:
• Elect the best public officials possible. Too many of the issues we debate at the state and local levels these days have nothing to do with efficient government. We must rid the Arkansas Legislature, county quorum courts and city councils of those who gum up the works for personal gain and replace them with people whose interest is spending our tax dollars efficiently. The Washington wars should stay in Washington. What matters at home is that we elect educated, competent people who love their city, county and state more than they love their political careers.
• Establish leadership development programs. With most Arkansas counties losing population, it's vital that we find better ways to produce the next generation of business and government leaders.
• Emphasize broadband development. Broadband is to rural Arkansas in the 21st century what electricity was in the 20th century; the difference between having a chance to make a living where you want to live or having to move.
• Make local school districts as good as they can possibly be. Even those with children in private schools must recognize the importance of quality public education. Continued population loss in rural counties also will require a new round of school consolidation in the next decade to ensure quality and efficiency.
• Understand that it's about far more than industrial parks in 2021. There must be revitalized downtowns, unique shops, restaurants and maybe a craft brewery or two in order to convince well-educated young people to stay put.
• Enhance outdoor recreational opportunities. You recruit talent with quality-of-life amenities. They want places where they can hunt, fish, cycle, hike and paddle streams.
• Vote for legislative candidates who will focus on properly funding higher education after years of starving our colleges and universities. Understand that a K-12 education is no longer enough. In the years ahead, manufacturing jobs will even require at least an associate's degree.
We also need far more people with bachelor's and advanced degrees. Until that happens, we're not going to increase per capita incomes in Arkansas. There's no way around that fact.
Rex Nelson is a senior editor at the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette.