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Climate change sets up potential rise in migration

Conditions forecast to uproot as many as 200 million people by The Associated Press | September 14, 2021 at 4:13 a.m.
FILE - In this Aug. 7, 2011 file photo, Somali refugees herd their goats at the Ifo refugee camp outside Dadaab, eastern Kenya, 100 kilometers (62 miles) from the Somali border. Climate change could push more than 200 million people to move within their own countries in the next three decades and create migration hotspots unless urgent action is taken in the coming years to reduce global emissions and bridge the development gap, a World Bank report has found. The report published on Monday, Sept. 13, 2021 examines how long-term impacts of climate change such as water scarcity, decreasing crop productivity and rising sea levels could lead to millions of what the report describes as “climate migrants” by 2050. (AP Photo/Jerome Delay, File)

BARCELONA, Spain -- Climate change could push more than 200 million people to leave their homes in the next three decades and create migration hot spots unless urgent action is taken to reduce global emissions and bridge the development gap, a World Bank report has found.

The second part of the Groundswell report published Monday examined how the impacts of slow-onset climate change such as water scarcity, decreasing crop productivity and rising sea levels could lead to millions of what it describes as "climate migrants" by 2050 under three different scenarios with varying degrees of climate action and development.

Under the most pessimistic scenario, with a high level of emissions and unequal development, the report forecasts up to 216 million people moving within their own countries across the six regions analyzed. Those regions are Latin America; North Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Eastern Europe and Central Asia; South Asia; and East Asia and the Pacific.

In the most climate-friendly scenario, with a low level of emissions and inclusive, sustainable development, the world could still see 44 million people being forced to leave their homes.

The findings "reaffirm the potency of climate to induce migration within countries," said Viviane Wei Chen Clement, a senior climate change specialist at the World Bank and one of the report's authors.

The report didn't look at the short-term impacts of climate change, such as the effects of extreme weather events, and did not look at climate migration across borders.

In the worst-case scenario, Sub-Saharan Africa -- the most vulnerable region due to desertification, fragile coastlines and the population's dependence on agriculture -- would see the most migrants, with up to 86 million people moving within national borders.

North Africa, however, is predicted to have the largest proportion of climate migrants, with 19 million people moving, equivalent to roughly 9% of its population, due mainly to increased water scarcity in northeastern Tunisia, northwestern Algeria, western and southern Morocco, and the central Atlas foothills, the report said.

In South Asia, Bangladesh is particularly affected by flooding and crop failures, accounting for almost half of the predicted climate migrants, with 19.9 million people moving by 2050 under the pessimistic scenario.

"This is our humanitarian reality right now, and we are concerned this is going to be even worse, where vulnerability is more acute," said Prof. Maarten van Aalst, director of the International Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, who wasn't involved with the report.

Many scientists say the world is no longer on track to the worst-case scenario for emissions. But even under a more moderate scenario, van Aalst said many impacts are now occurring faster than previously expected, "including the extremes we are already experiencing, as well as potential implications for migration and displacement."

The report also warns that migration hot spots could appear within the next decade and intensify by 2050. Planning is needed both in the areas where people will move to, and in the areas they leave to help those who remain.

Among the actions recommended were achieving "net zero emissions by mid-century to have a chance at limiting global warming to 1.5° degrees Celsius" and investing in development that is "green, resilient, and inclusive, in line with the Paris Agreement."

FILE - In this May 4, 2016, file photo, a girl wearing her school uniform pulls a rope attached to a bucket as she tries to draw water after a tanker emptied water into a dried up well at Umber Maal village in Thane district in Maharashtra state, India.  Climate change could push more than 200 million people to move within their own countries in the next three decades and create migration hotspots unless urgent action is taken in the coming years to reduce global emissions and bridge the development gap, a World Bank report has found. The report published on Monday, Sept. 13, 2021 examines how long-term impacts of climate change such as water scarcity, decreasing crop productivity and rising sea levels could lead to millions of what the report describes as “climate migrants” by 2050. (AP Photo/ Rajanish Kakade, File)
FILE - In this May 4, 2016, file photo, a girl wearing her school uniform pulls a rope attached to a bucket as she tries to draw water after a tanker emptied water into a dried up well at Umber Maal village in Thane district in Maharashtra state, India. Climate change could push more than 200 million people to move within their own countries in the next three decades and create migration hotspots unless urgent action is taken in the coming years to reduce global emissions and bridge the development gap, a World Bank report has found. The report published on Monday, Sept. 13, 2021 examines how long-term impacts of climate change such as water scarcity, decreasing crop productivity and rising sea levels could lead to millions of what the report describes as “climate migrants” by 2050. (AP Photo/ Rajanish Kakade, File)
FILE - In this July 3, 2015 file photo, a farmer works in a rice paddy field at Reba Maheswar village, 56 kilometers (35 miles) east of Gauhati, India.  Climate change could push more than 200 million people to move within their own countries in the next three decades and create migration hotspots unless urgent action is taken in the coming years to reduce global emissions and bridge the development gap, a World Bank report has found. The report published on Monday, Sept. 13, 2021 examines how long-term impacts of climate change such as water scarcity, decreasing crop productivity and rising sea levels could lead to millions of what the report describes as “climate migrants” by 2050. (AP Photo/Anupam Nath, File)
FILE - In this July 3, 2015 file photo, a farmer works in a rice paddy field at Reba Maheswar village, 56 kilometers (35 miles) east of Gauhati, India. Climate change could push more than 200 million people to move within their own countries in the next three decades and create migration hotspots unless urgent action is taken in the coming years to reduce global emissions and bridge the development gap, a World Bank report has found. The report published on Monday, Sept. 13, 2021 examines how long-term impacts of climate change such as water scarcity, decreasing crop productivity and rising sea levels could lead to millions of what the report describes as “climate migrants” by 2050. (AP Photo/Anupam Nath, File)
FILE - In this July 31, 2016, file photo, a flood-affected family with their goats travel on a boat in the Morigaon district, east of Gauhati, northeastern Assam state, India.  Climate change could push more than 200 million people to move within their own countries in the next three decades and create migration hotspots unless urgent action is taken in the coming years to reduce global emissions and bridge the development gap, a World Bank report has found. The report published on Monday, Sept. 13, 2021 examines how long-term impacts of climate change such as water scarcity, decreasing crop productivity and rising sea levels could lead to millions of what the report describes as “climate migrants” by 2050. (AP Photo/Anupam Nath, File)
FILE - In this July 31, 2016, file photo, a flood-affected family with their goats travel on a boat in the Morigaon district, east of Gauhati, northeastern Assam state, India. Climate change could push more than 200 million people to move within their own countries in the next three decades and create migration hotspots unless urgent action is taken in the coming years to reduce global emissions and bridge the development gap, a World Bank report has found. The report published on Monday, Sept. 13, 2021 examines how long-term impacts of climate change such as water scarcity, decreasing crop productivity and rising sea levels could lead to millions of what the report describes as “climate migrants” by 2050. (AP Photo/Anupam Nath, File)
FILE - In this file photo taken Thursday, Jan. 16, 2020, a Samburu boy uses a wooden stick to try to swat a swarm of desert locusts filling the air, as he herds his camel near the village of Sissia, in Samburu county, Kenya. Climate change could push more than 200 million people to move within their own countries in the next three decades and create migration hotspots unless urgent action is taken in the coming years to reduce global emissions and bridge the development gap, a World Bank report has found. The report published on Monday, Sept. 13, 2021 examines how long-term impacts of climate change such as water scarcity, decreasing crop productivity and rising sea levels could lead to millions of what the report describes as “climate migrants” by 2050. (AP Photo/Patrick Ngugi, File)
FILE - In this file photo taken Thursday, Jan. 16, 2020, a Samburu boy uses a wooden stick to try to swat a swarm of desert locusts filling the air, as he herds his camel near the village of Sissia, in Samburu county, Kenya. Climate change could push more than 200 million people to move within their own countries in the next three decades and create migration hotspots unless urgent action is taken in the coming years to reduce global emissions and bridge the development gap, a World Bank report has found. The report published on Monday, Sept. 13, 2021 examines how long-term impacts of climate change such as water scarcity, decreasing crop productivity and rising sea levels could lead to millions of what the report describes as “climate migrants” by 2050. (AP Photo/Patrick Ngugi, File)

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