Bill and Hillary Clinton National Airport/Adams Field is sounding the alarm on the future of its coveted direct service between Little Rock and Washington, D.C.
The daily American Airlines flight isn't carrying the volume of passengers needed for the flight to be successful, according to data airport officials provided to the Little Rock Municipal Airport Commission. The service resumed in April after a hiatus brought on by the covid-19 pandemic.
The airline already has scuttled its Saturday service between Little Rock and Miami, which was inaugurated in May.
Rachel Bader, who manages air service development for Clinton National, said the airline has said it will resume the Miami flight in November and continue through June 4, 2022 under an incentive agreement. But she told the commission "this is subject to change."
In other words, if enough people don't purchase tickets for the route, it may not be re-started. The uncertain fate of the routes comes even as passenger travel continues to recover from the ravages of the pandemic at airports around the world, including Clinton National.
Both flights struggle with what is called passenger load factors, a key formula the airline industry uses to help gauge the success of a particular route.
The passenger load factor is calculated by dividing the number of paying passengers and the distance they traveled with the number of available seats and the distance they traveled and multiplied by 100 to obtain a percentage value.
The Washington service and the Miami service, according to Bader, had load factors of 64% and 66%, respectively, in 2021. Last year, the Washington service had a load factor of 29%, thanks to the dramatic drop in airline travel.
But the load factor in 2019, before the onset of the pandemic was 76%.
"In order for these markets to do well, we need the community to fly out of Little Rock and utilize these destinations so that we can show the airlines that we can sustain the service and they could need to add more," Bader told the commission at its monthly meeting Tuesday.
The passenger load factor is "low," particularly for the Washington service, which is a "valuable slot," said Michael Boyd, president of Boyd Group International, an aviation forecasting and consulting firm in Evergreen, Colo.
"Miami not so much, but Washington is a really valuable slot," he said. "They're going to [put] planes in places that can bring the most passengers. That's the challenge."
The Washington flight provides convenient access to the nation's capital for politicians, business executives and tourists alike.
"Direct air service from D.C. to Little Rock provides business leaders, outdoor recreation enthusiasts, and tourists an important gateway to central Arkansas and all the opportunities the Natural State has to offer," U.S. Rep. French Hill, R-Ark., said in an email. "I'm hopeful this important service remains available to Arkansans and those wishing to visit."
He also pointed out that American Airlines has "expanded their gates at Reagan [National Airport], making it an additional hub [in addition to] to DFW and Charlotte, offering more choices to Arkansas based travelers."
Boyd doesn't see what Little Rock could do to help sustain the service at Washington, Miami or any other destination where the demand isn't high. If one city has a 60% load factor and another has a 70% load factor, the airline is going to go with the latter city.
"It's not Little Rock failed," he said when the city loses a route. "It's the highest and best use of the airplane."