Red China is begging Taiwan to take the first shot.
The world should beg Taiwan not to take the bait.
War "has been coming" to the Taiwan Strait since at least 1949, when the ChiComs chased Chiang Kai-shek to the sea, but couldn't swim fast enough to catch his boats heading for Taipei. Chairman/President Chiang held on to the island, along with the free Chinese, and "has been coming" since.
One of these days, the ChiComs on the mainland tell us, we're going to have to remove those scare quotes.
Last week, Beijing sent 39 planes and three ships across the Taiwan Strait in what amounted to the largest show of force against the self-ruled island in decades, the wire services report. Apparently the CCP felt the world needed a reminder that it intends to make good on its promises to force Taiwan officially back into the fold. Or under the fold.
U.S. senior military officials have long expected conflict if not outright war with Communist China and its massive People's Liberation Army (PLA). For many military analysts, the only question related to potential U.S.-Chinese conflict is when. Let's hope they are wrong. War between the United States and Red China would be a catastrophe for the world. It would not be a local, focused conflict like the war in Ukraine.
This latest ChiCom bait/flex/provocation included firing missiles over the island that ended up scaring some fish in Japanese waters. Reports from the Taiwanese military say 30 of the Chinese planes crossed the median of the Taiwan Strait, which has served as an unofficial boundary.
The planes, which included J-16 fighter jets and H-6 bombers, flew to the island's southwest and then horizontally to the island's southeast coast before doubling back, according to diagrams of the flight patterns from the Taiwanese military.
Taipei said it monitored the moves through its own navy and land-based missile systems. Fortunately, none of those systems were activated.
But if it comes to war over Taiwan, former CIA analyst and Atlantic Council senior fellow John Culver writes, it would be hard for the ChiComs to completely surprise the world. That is, Red China would have to do some prep work. And, just as with the lead-up to Putin's War, the mainland's actions in the strait would reveal some tells. Among them:
• China would have already started surging production of ballistic and cruise missiles and other weapons systems at least a year before "D-Day."
• China would take visible steps to insulate its economy, military and key industries from disruptions and sanctions.
• Rapid liquidation and repatriation of Chinese assets held abroad.
• Chinese elites and high-priority workers would also face international travel restrictions.
• Six or 12 months before a prospective invasion, Red China probably would implement a PLA-wide stop loss, halting demobilizations of enlisted personnel and officers.
• Three to six months out, the PLA would also halt most regular training and perform maintenance on virtually all major equipment.
Because of these factors and many more, Mr. Culver thinks any planned invasion wouldn't remain a secret for long. And he suggests the many downsides to invasion of Taiwan from the CCP side alone may yet influence party leadership.
Many downsides? Including, we hope everyone remembers, the prospect of a global war between two heavily armed (and nuclear armed) adversaries. Yes, that seems a downside.
Let's hope Mr. Culver and our other spooks are right. And last week's bait was only that. And Taiwan doesn't have a taste for it.
In the meantime, Red China continues to flex. And the rest of the world keeps nervous watch.