WASHINGTON -- The week before Christmas, Sen. Joe Manchin sent the White House a $1.8 trillion counteroffer to President Joe Biden's Build Back Better agenda, including substantial funds for climate, health care and education initiatives.
Weeks later, the West Virginia Democrat has made clear that he does not currently support advancing even that offer after a breakdown in negotiations between Manchin and the White House, three people with knowledge of the matter said.
Manchin said publicly last week that he was no longer involved in talks with the White House over the economic package. Privately, he has also made clear that he is not interested in approving legislation resembling the Build Back Better package and that Democrats should fundamentally rethink their approach, those with knowledge of his thinking said.
Senior Democrats say they do not believe that Manchin, at least at the moment, would support his earlier offer even if the White House tried adopting it in full. The people spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss private conversations.
Negotiations deteriorated quickly in December after a White House news release named Manchin as the obstacle to passing the legislation. Manchin then surprised the administration by criticizing the bill on Fox News, after which the White House released a statement calling his credibility into question. Manchin, who has drawn protesters' ire because of his opposition to the legislation, later said the decision to name him in the news release imperiled the safety of his family.
The White House has continued to project optimism that it will eventually secure Manchin's vote, and with it the approval of a major economic plan. And Manchin's $1.8 trillion counteroffer suggested that much common ground remained between the two sides. He said in recent days, for example, that he supports much of the administration's climate agenda.
But Democratic leaders in Congress have pivoted from trying to complete the economic package to addressing voting-rights legislation, leaving unclear the fate of the White House's effort to remake big parts of the U.S. economy and provide the biggest-ever investment in fighting climate change.
Administration allies, including several officials in the White House, have in recent days expressed confusion about how the administration could pass up on the potential for a $1.8 trillion deal that would amount to one of the most significant pieces of domestic policy in decades.
Manchin's offer included permanent funding for universal prekindergarten, an expansion of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, and hundreds of billions of dollars in climate-related spending -- measures staunchly opposed by congressional Republicans. His plan also included support for a tax on billionaires.
"A $1.8 trillion package along the lines of what Manchin offered last month would be one of the most transformative, progressive pieces of legislation in modern history," said Ben Ritz, a budget expert at the Progressive Policy Institute, a Washington, D.C., think tank. "The White House should absolutely take it if they can."
But it is unclear whether the White House could have accepted Manchin's plan even if it wanted to.
In addition to excluding the expanded child tax credit, a centerpiece of Biden's anti-poverty agenda, Manchin's offer included no funding for housing and no money for racial equity initiatives, two people familiar with the matter said, speaking on the condition of anonymity to reveal details of the private negotiations.
Numerous congressional Democrats have had other demands for the package, such as an expansion of Medicare benefits for senior citizens.
That and other provisions might have to be incorporated into a final plan to secure approval. To pass the bill, Democrats cannot afford to lose any senators or more than three House members.
Additionally, Manchin's offer included tax increases that Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, D-Ariz., had already ruled out, people familiar with the matter said.
Manchin's positions have been hard to pin down over the course of negotiations, leading to a fierce lobbying effort to swing his vote.
In recent weeks, Sen. Mitt Romney, R-Utah, has tried to see whether he could broker a bipartisan agreement over the child tax credit with Manchin, two people familiar with the matter said. Romney has offered a GOP alternative to Biden's expanded child tax credit, but the measure is opposed by the vast majority of Republicans.
It is unclear how far the discussions between Romney and Manchin have progressed. Manchin has been adamant that the child benefit include a work requirement for parents, whereas Romney's plan does not.
With the president's economic agenda in limbo, some liberal groups say they plan to continue to pressure Manchin into approving the legislation.
"The policies we're fighting for -- like letting Medicare negotiate prices -- are incredibly popular in West Virginia, and Manchin is clearly not listening to people in his state," said Alex Lawson, executive director of Social Security Works, a left-leaning group. "Biden has to bring the full weight of the presidency to bear on Joe Manchin to get his vote to get Build Back Better across the finish line."
Others say it is important to engage with Manchin and ensure that Democrats do not blow an opportunity to enact significant legislation.
"Many progressives stand ready to compromise to get something done," said Rep. Ro Khanna, D-Calif., a member of the Congressional Progressive Caucus. "We understand that we have to earn Sen. Manchin's vote, and I look forward to working with him and the White House to see where we can find common ground and what we can deliver."