Snow is forecast for much of Arkansas today and Sunday, with accumulations of more than 5 inches possible in the higher elevations of the Ozark and Ouachita mountains, according to the National Weather Service in North Little Rock.
Rain was expected to begin today and turn to snow at different times during the day, depending on the location in Arkansas.
A cold front is moving across middle America, but with temperatures in the 50s across Arkansas on Friday afternoon, exactly when the cold air would move into the state was difficult to predict.
"That's one of the big question marks we're dealing with," said Willie Gilmore, a meteorologist with the weather service. "This is one of the more tricky scenarios for snow accumulation predictions. This storm system is basically strengthening as it moves over Arkansas. I just want people to realize this is going to be a highly variable situation. It may switch back and forth in some areas between rain and snow throughout the day."
It's a complex system, according to a Friday afternoon email from the weather service's Day Crew.
[ARKANSAS WEATHER: Hourly forecast + weather radar » arkansasonline.com/radar]
"A storm system will arrive from the north later tonight," according to the email. "From there, the system will turn to the east and intensify. The system will pull plenty of moisture into the eastern half of the state, with moisture more limited farther to the west. At the same time, cold air will arrive behind the system Saturday morning in the west, and will hold off farther east until the afternoon.
"The timing of the cold air and how much moisture is available will determine where the heaviest snow occurs during this event. Given a lot of moving parts, this forecast will likely be imperfect."
According to an afternoon briefing from the weather service, the greatest amounts of snow (from 3 to more than 5 inches) were expected from southwest of Harrison eastward to near Mountain View and Newport, as well as on a few high peaks in the Ouachita Mountains.
"One to two inch accumulations could occur in much of northern and central Arkansas, with generally less than an inch in southern sections," according to the briefing. "Gusty north/northwest winds Saturday afternoon/night could down tree limbs and power lines where snow is heavy."
"Temperatures will fall well below freezing (in the 20s) in the northern half of Arkansas by Sunday morning," according to the email. "This is where roads are most likely to become hazardous, especially bridges and overpasses."
Sunday morning travel could be "a big problem," said Gilmore. But temperatures will be above freezing that day, so there should be a considerable amount of melting.
Dave Parker, a spokesman for the Arkansas Department of Transportation, said some major highways in Northwest Arkansas were treated with brine on Friday, but that didn't make sense for central Arkansas because heavy rainfall would wash the brine off the roads before the cold weather sets in.
Parker said workers will wait until the rain begins to turn to snow today, then put brine down in Central Arkansas.
"Some of it will get washed off but a heavy percentage will stay and stick," he said. "It's kind of like Pam on a skillet. It prevents the snow from sticking quickly."
Based on the late Friday afternoon forecast, Harrison in north-central Arkansas could expect rain before 7 a.m. today, then rain and snow until 1 p.m., then snow afterward. The low temperature will bottom out at about 23 degrees later tonight. Total accumulation is projected to be between 1 and 2.5 inches of snow.
The forecast for Fayetteville called for rain before noon, then occasional snow afterwards, with an accumulation of 1 inch possible. The low temperature tonight is expected to be 21 degrees.
To the east in Jonesboro, showers are forecast, mainly after 10 a.m. today. Rain, possibly mixed with snow showers will begin before 1 a.m. Sunday, with possible accumulation of 1 to 3 inches. The low temperature is expected to be 26 degrees.
Farther south in Little Rock, the forecast calls for rain before 8 p.m. today, then rain and snow likely until 11 p.m, then snow likely after 11 p.m. The low is forecast to be around 29 degrees. Snow accumulation in the capital city is forecast to be less than 1 inch.
On Friday night, 21 counties in north central and northeast Arkansas were under a winter storm watch. Four counties in Northwest Arkansas and nine counties in the Ouachita Mountains were under a winter storm advisory.
High temperatures across Arkansas are expected to be in the 40s on Monday and the 50s on Tuesday.