JERUSALEM -- Despite the tourism industry beginning to bounce back from the coronavirus pandemic, a full recovery could take as long as the catastrophe itself, according to projections and interviews by The Associated Press in 11 countries in June.
Some locales, such as the French Riviera and the American Midwest, are contributing to the climb in tourism more than others -- such as shuttered, "zero-covid" China, which before the pandemic was the world's leading source of tourists and their spending.
The human drive to bust out and explore is helping fuel the ascent, packing flights and museums despite rising coronavirus infections and inflation. But economic urgency is the real driver for an industry worth $3.5 trillion in 2019 that the United Nations estimates lost about that much during the pandemic. By some estimates, tourism provides work for one in 10 people on Earth.
Many places, particularly those that have loosened safety requirements, are seeing what passes for a go-go summer of sunny optimism and adventure.
"They are saying it's the summer of revenge travel," Pittsburgh resident Theresa Starta, 52, said as she gazed across one of Amsterdam's canals at crowds thronging to the Dutch capital. "Everything seems so bad all around the world, so it's nice to see some things coming back."
"The road to a full recovery is very long, but at least we are back on it," said Sanga Ruangwattanakul, president of the Khao San Road Business Association in Bangkok.
Despite the roaring return of travelers, challenges and uncertainty cast shadows over the post-pandemic landscape. Full recoveries are generally not expected until at least 2024. Concerns hovered around a long list of issues, including inflation, supply-chain problems, rising infection rates and labor shortages.
Before June was over, chaos had come to define travel in the summer of 2022. Airports and airlines that had cut back during the depths of the pandemic struggled to meet the demand, resulting in canceled flights, lost baggage and other, assorted difficulties. Spooked tourists booked trips on shorter notice, making it harder for hotels, tour operators and others to plan, industry insiders said.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine, too, added risk to the uneven recovery and contributed to inflation, a factor that could become a major obstacle even as other pandemic pain recedes.
"It's really the fall season that is of concern," said Sandra Carvao, chief of market intelligence and competitiveness at the U.N. World Tourism Organization. If inflation continues to rise, particularly interest rates, "families will have to rethink their spending."
For all of the lifted virus travel restrictions, safety is not likely to recede as a concern.
"The most important thing for people when they decide to go on vacation is health and safety. Always has been," said Simon Hudson, a professor of tourism at the University of South Carolina. "This is going to take awhile."
GOOD SIGNS
Starting with the bright spots, the U.N. reported that during the first quarter of 2022, international arrivals almost tripled over the same three months last year. March this year produced the healthiest results since the start of the pandemic, with arrivals climbing to nearly 50% of 2019 levels. That could rise to as much as 70% of 2019 arrivals by the end of this year, the U.N. World Tourism Organization said in projections it revised in May.
That's produced encouraging signs in certain places, from Israel to the United States, Italy, Mexico and France. Big plans for 2023 are in the offing in the United States, such as a cruise featuring some of Broadway's biggest stars.
Those projections are playing out on the ground, generally in places that had aggressive and agile restrictions early-on and adapted by lifting many protections as vaccinations rose and the omicron variant proved less lethal than other variants.
Foreign tourists are flocking to places such as the French Riviera, where supply-chain issues are making everything more expensive -- including champagne, one restaurateur said.
"It's been summer here since spring, every single night," said Elie Dagher, a manager of La Villa Massenet in Nice. Since April, he said, the bistro has been packed with visitors from Scandinavia and the Netherlands, but especially the United Kingdom and the United States.
In Branson, Mo., known for its country music shows and outdoor attractions, no rebound is necessary. It hosted a record 10 million visitors last year and appears to be on pace to top that, said Lynn Berry, spokeswoman for the Branson Convention and Visitors Bureau.
Jeff Johnson, co-owner of Shepherd of the Hills adventure park, attributes that to a short shutdown in 2020 and a loyal customer base drawn from nearby states and cities like St. Louis and Kansas City. "When we reopened," he said, "it never slowed down."
In Italy, tourists, especially from the United States, returned this year in droves. The run-up to Easter was especially notable in Rome, reflecting pent-up demand to visit perennial sites such as the Sistine Chapel and the Colosseum.
"There's a huge craving to travel, just like popping a [cork] from a bottle," said Bernabo Bocca, president of the national hotel association Federalberghi. The moment Italy loosened safety measures in April, "a tsunami of bookings arrived from the United States at a speed never seen before."
Hopes are high for Thailand, too, in the wake of its announcement last month that the country was dropping virtually all requirements other than proof of vaccination, or in its absence, a negative coronavirus test.
Already the return of tourists has breathed new life into local tourism. Bangkok's famous backpacker street, Khao San Road, almost deserted last year, is getting up to 5,000 visitors a day -- promising numbers but a far cry from the 30,000 daily visitors before the pandemic, according to Ruangwattanakul, the business association president.
By 2019, Chinese tourists accounted for a quarter of foreign arrivals in Thailand, but there are no signs that they will return in such numbers.
The fitful nature of the post-pandemic climb could be seen from Israel to India.
"I think we are moving in the right direction," said restaurant owner Vaibhav Khulbe in Dharmsala, India, where 4 million visitors are expected in country this year, compared with 11 million in 2019.
As elsewhere in the world, Israel is struggling to match its record-setting tourism of 2019, when 4.5 million people visited. Despite lifting all restrictions, Israel expects less than half that -- about 2 million visitors -- this year, Tourism Ministry officials say.
Information for this article was contributed by Barbara Surk in Nice, France; Joey Capelletti, Sopheng Cheang, Mike Corder, Fanuel Morelli, Ciaran Giles, Ashwini Bhatia, Jim Salter, Mark Stevenson, Maria Verza and Tassanee Vejpongsa of The Associated Press.
Tourists take pictures in front of the Pyramide in the Louvre Museum courtyard, in Paris, France, Monday, June 20, 2022. Tourism is on the rebound around the world this summer after two years of pandemic restrictions, with museums and flights packed – but the global recovery is hampered by inflation and rising virus infection rates in many regions. (AP Photo/Francois Mori)
A barge tours along the Riverwalk, Friday, June 17, 2022, in San Antonio. The summer of 2022 can feel as if the coronavirus pandemic is really over. Mask rules and testing requirements are lifting in many countries, including the United States. (AP Photo/Eric Gay)
A tourist pauses in front of a mural depicting Palestinian activist Ahed Tamimi on Israel's controversial separation barrier in the West Bank city of Bethlehem, Sunday, June 19, 2022. The summer of 2022 can feel as if the coronavirus pandemic is really over — mask rules and testing requirements are lifting in many countries, including the United States. Full recoveries are generally not expected until at least 2024. (AP Photo/Maya Alleruzzo)
Tourists visit the Old City of Jerusalem, Wednesday, June 15, 2022. The summer of 2022 can feel as if the coronavirus pandemic is really over — mask rules and testing requirements are lifting in many countries, including the United States. Full recoveries are generally not expected until at least 2024. (AP Photo/Maya Alleruzzo)
People roller skate at Rockefeller Center Tuesday, June 21, 2022, in New York. The summer of 2022 can feel as if the coronavirus pandemic is really over. Mask rules and testing requirements are lifting in many countries, including the United States. (AP Photo/Frank Franklin II)
Tubers float the Coral River, Tuesday, June 14, 2022, in New Braunfels, Texas. The summer of 2022 can feel as if the coronavirus pandemic is really over. Mask rules and testing requirements are lifting in many countries, including the United States. (AP Photo/Eric Gay)
Tourists queue to visit Rome's Pantheon Friday, June 17, 2022. Summer travel is underway across the globe, but a full recovery from two years of coronavirus could last as long as the pandemic itself. In Italy, tourists — especially from the U.S. — returned this year in droves. (AP Photo/Alessandra Tarantino)
Tourists sit on public benches in Dharmsala, India, Friday, June 17, 2022. Summer travel is underway across the globe, but a full recovery from two years of coronavirus could last as long as the pandemic itself. (AP Photo/Ashwini Bhatia)
A child tries on a mask at a street vendor in Dharmsala, India, Saturday, June 18, 2022. Summer travel is underway across the globe, but a full recovery from two years of coronavirus could last as long as the pandemic itself. (AP Photo/Ashwini Bhatia)