Arkansas covid cases increase by 954, largest jump in nearly 3 months

Jodie Sewell of Bentonville self-administers a nasal swab during a mass covid-19 screening at the Northwest Arkansas Community College in Bentonville in this June 26, 2020, file photo. The college provided the facility and volunteers. The University of Arkansas for Medical Sciences, or UAMS, also provided volunteers, as did Mercy Hospital. (NWA Democrat-Gazette/Charlie Kaijo)
Jodie Sewell of Bentonville self-administers a nasal swab during a mass covid-19 screening at the Northwest Arkansas Community College in Bentonville in this June 26, 2020, file photo. The college provided the facility and volunteers. The University of Arkansas for Medical Sciences, or UAMS, also provided volunteers, as did Mercy Hospital. (NWA Democrat-Gazette/Charlie Kaijo)

Arkansas' count of coronavirus cases rose Wednesday by 954 -- the largest one-day spike in almost three months -- as the number of people hospitalized with covid-19 in the state jumped to almost 200.

Already at its highest level since March 17, the number hospitalized grew by 13, to 199, the third daily increase in a row that was in the double digits.

The state's death toll from the virus, as tracked by the Department of Health, rose by one, to 11,528.

State Epidemiologist Mike Cima said the death reported Wednesday occurred in February.

The increase in cases was the largest in a single day since March 19 and the first since then that topped 900.

Most of the 1,131 cases added on March 19 were from a backlog of reports that had been faxed in by providers weeks earlier, during the state's first wave of infections from the omicron variant.

Before Wednesday, the biggest one-day rise since March had been the 887 cases that were added the previous Wednesday, on June 8.

Cima said the most recent increase was in line with what he expected, and he expects a similarly large increase today.

But he said the number hospitalized, while more than double what it was two weeks ago, has remained at "very manageable levels."

He said he's encouraged by a decline in new cases in northeastern states such as New York, New Jersey and Pennsylvania, which began experiencing upticks before Arkansas.

"I'm becoming increasingly hopeful that we're nearing a peak," Cima said.

"We're not there yet."

The outlook is complicated, however, by the fast-spreading omicron subvariants BA.4 and BA.5.

According to estimates updated Tuesday by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the two strains accounted for a combined 21.6% of the cases in the United States last week, up from 13.1% the previous week.

Among the U.S. Health and Services Department's 10 regions, the estimated percentage of cases caused by the two subvariants was highest in the one encompassing Arkansas, Louisiana, New Mexico, Oklahoma and Texas.

In that region, BA.4 and BA.5 were responsible for 30.4% of the cases last week, up from 19.8% the previous week.

"I don't necessarily think that it will dramatically impact our trajectory," Cima said of the subvariants' growing prevalence.

"I think we'll still follow generally the trend that has been observed elsewhere, but there is a degree of uncertainty there."

After dipping a day earlier, the average daily increase in the state's case count over a rolling seven-day period rose to 631, its highest level since the week ending March 1.

Already at its highest level since Feb. 24, the number of cases in the state that were considered active rose by 352, to 7,488, as new cases continued to outpace recoveries.

After rising the previous two days, the number of the state's virus patients who were on ventilators remained at eight.

The number who were in intensive care, which didn't change Tuesday, rose Wednesday by six, to 26.

At its hospitals in Little Rock and Springdale, Arkansas Children's Hospital had six covid-19 patients on Wednesday, up from five on Monday, spokeswoman Hilary DeMillo said.

STATES RANKED

In other news on the pandemic, a report set to be released today by The Commonwealth Fund ranks Arkansas 43rd out of the states and District of Columbia in its response to covid-19.

The report by the New York City-based foundation also ranked Arkansas 44th in the performance of its health care system overall, based on measures related to the pandemic as well as health care access, affordability and quality, health outcomes and other factors.

David Radley, a senior scientist at The Commonwealth Fund, said states that have historically scored higher in the foundation's annual rankings on health care system performance also performed better on the covid-19 measures that were added this year.

"Having a strong health care system is the best preparation for any public health crisis," David Blumenthal, the foundation's president, said during a video conference with reporters.

In the seven measures related to covid-19, Arkansas' worst rank was in the percentage of its adults who were fully vaccinated and had received a booster dose.

As of the end of March, 27% of Arkansas adults were fully vaccinated and boosted, the sixth-lowest rate in the country, according to the report.

According to CDC data, Arkansas' rate had risen to 28% as of Wednesday, which remained the sixth-lowest rate in the country.

North Carolina had the lowest rate, 20.8%, as of Wednesday. Alabama, Mississippi, Georgia and Louisiana also had lower rates than Arkansas.

In another measure related to vaccination rates, Arkansas was one of 21 states where the percentage of residents age 12 and older who had been fully vaccinated, regardless of whether they had received booster shots, hadn't reached 70% as of March 31.

According to CDC data, Arkansas' percentage on that date was 61.9%.

By Wednesday, it had risen only slightly, to 62.9% -- still short of the 70% benchmark used in the report.

Arkansas also ranked poorly in its number of covid-19 hospital admissions and its "excess deaths," defined as the difference between the actual number of deaths from all causes and the number that would have been expected based on historical trends.

From Feb. 1, 2020 to April 23 of this year, Arkansas' excess deaths translated to a rate of 453 per 100,000 residents, the eighth-highest rate in the country.

The state's covid-19 hospital admissions from August 2020 through this March translated to a rate of 1,889 per 100,000 residents, the country's seventh-highest rate.

Arkansas compared somewhat more favorably on three other measures, related to hospital capacity and deaths of nursing home residents from covid-19.

The state's nursing home deaths from May 2020 to March 27 of this year amounted to a rate of 97 per 1,000 nursing home beds, the country's 20th highest rate.

In a measure of the strain on hospitals, Arkansas had 144 days from August 2020 through March of this year when at least 80% of its hospital ICU beds were occupied, which was fewer days of "high ICU stress" than what 18 other states experienced during that period.

Similarly, Arkansas had 148 days during the same time frame when at least 25% of the state's hospitals reported a "critical staffing shortage," which was fewer days than what 16 other states experienced.

Overall, Hawaii had the best score for its pandemic response, followed by Maine, Vermont and Washington state.

Ranking below Arkansas were Texas, West Virginia, South Carolina, Georgia, Mississippi, Kentucky, Oklahoma and Alabama, which ranked last.

CASES BY COUNTY

Within Arkansas, Pulaski County had the most new cases, 194, on Wednesday, followed by Washington County with 69 and Benton County with 66.

The state's cumulative count of cases since March 2020 rose to 852,229.

The Health Department's tally of vaccine doses that had been administered rose by 1,855, which was up by 78 from the daily increase a week earlier.

Just over half of the most recent increase was from people receiving booster shots for the first time.

The count of people starting the vaccination process rose by 477, which was up by 190 from the daily increase a week earlier.

The average number of total doses administered each day over a rolling seven-day period rose to 1,248, which was still down from an average of almost 1,500 a day the previous week.

The average for first doses rose to 244.

According to the CDC, 67.3% of Arkansans of all ages had received at least one dose as of Wednesday, and 54.9% had been fully vaccinated.

Of those who were fully vaccinated, 40.5% had received a booster dose.

Among the states and the District of Columbia, Arkansas ranked 37th in the percentage of its residents who had received at least one dose.

In the percentage who were fully vaccinated, it was roughly tied with Tennessee for 46th, ahead of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Wyoming.

Nationally, 78.1% of people had received at least one dose, and 66.8% were fully vaccinated.

Of the fully vaccinated population nationally, 47.2% had received a booster dose.


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