Wheat and soybeans traded at their highest in more than a week on added signs of the disruption looming for Ukraine crop supplies.
The country may only plant about half a normal sunflower crop and a third less corn than last year, according to estimates from analyst UkrAgroConsult. For winter crops like wheat that are already sown, some fields could be damaged from the war or see yields suffer from a lack of inputs.
At the same time, crop conditions are in focus across other major shippers as wheat emerges from dormancy. The U.S. Plains will see some beneficial rains, while crop ratings are still low after a lengthy dry spell, according to a note from the forecaster Maxar. Parts of the European Union are also turning dry, although yields so far are seen about steady with last year.
"The longer the conflict in Ukraine goes on, the less likely that harvest will progress or any sort of degree of normality can be resumed," Peter Collier, an analyst at U.K.-based CRM AgriCommodities, said by phone.
Wheat futures in Chicago rose as much as 4.5% to $11.6925 a bushel, the highest for most-active futures in over a week. Soybeans traded at their highest since March 9.
Ukraine is a major exporter of wheat, corn and sunflower oil. It is still shipping some crops by rail, but the tonnage is well below normal. And once the war ends, it will take time to remove mines from fields and restore infrastructure, UkrAgroConsult said.
Some of the world's biggest wheat importers are eyeing supplies from alternative shippers given the disruptions in the Black Sea region. India is in final talks to begin wheat shipments to Egypt, the biggest buyer, and is also in negotiations with China and Turkey.
The war has also tightened the global availability of crop nutrients, raising concerns over spring sowings of Northern Hemisphere crops such as corn. A work stoppage at one of Canada's largest railways is snarling shipments, spurring fears of a broader economic impact if it's not resolved quickly.