RIO DE JANEIRO -- Brazil's top two presidential candidates will face each other in a runoff vote after neither got enough support to win outright Sunday in an election to decide if the country returns a leftist to the helm of the world's fourth-largest democracy or keeps the far-right incumbent in office.
With 99.6% of the votes tallied, former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva had 48.3% support and President Jair Bolsonaro had 43.3%. Nine other candidates were also competing, but their support pales to that for Bolsonaro and da Silva, who is commonly known as Lula.
The tightness of the result came as a surprise, since preelection polls had given da Silva a commanding lead. The last Datafolha survey published Saturday had found a 50% to 36% advantage for da Silva. It interviewed 12,800 people, with a margin of error of 2 percentage points.
"This tight difference between Lula and Bolsonaro wasn't predicted," said Nara Pavao, who teaches political science at the Federal University of Pernambuco.
Speaking at a post-vote news conference, da Silva referred to the scheduled Oct. 30 runoff vote against Bolsonaro as "extra time" in a soccer game.
"I want to win every election in the first round. But it isn't always possible," he said.
Bolsonaro outperformed expectations in Brazil's southeast region, which includes populous Sao Paulo, Rio de Janeiro and Minas Gerais states, according to Rafael Cortez, who oversees political risk at consultancy Tendencias Consultoria.
"The polls didn't capture that growth," Cortez said.
Carlos Melo, a political science professor at Insper University in Sao Paulo, said: "It is too soon to go too deep, but this election shows Bolsonaro's victory in 2018 was not a hiccup."
Bolsonaro's administration has been marked by incendiary speech, his testing of democratic institutions, his widely criticized handling of the covid-19 pandemic and the worst deforestation in the Amazon rainforest in 15 years.
But he has built a devoted base by defending conservative values, rebuffing political correctness and presenting himself as protecting the nation from leftist policies that he says infringe on personal liberties and produce economic turmoil.
While voting earlier Sunday, Marley Melo, a 53-year-old trader in the capital, Brasilia, sported the yellow of the Brazilian flag, which Bolsonaro and his supporters have co-opted for demonstrations. Melo said he is once again voting for Bolsonaro, who met his expectations, and he doesn't believe the surveys that show him trailing.
"Polls can be manipulated. They all belong to companies with interests," he said.
A slow economic recovery has yet to reach the poor, with 33 million Brazilians going hungry despite higher welfare payments. Like several of its Latin American neighbors coping with high inflation and a vast number of people excluded from formal employment, Brazil is considering a shift to the political left.
Bolsonaro has repeatedly questioned the reliability not just of opinion polls, but also of Brazil's electronic voting machines. Analysts fear he has laid the groundwork to reject the results.
At one point, Bolsonaro claimed to possess evidence of fraud, but never presented any, even after the electoral authority set a deadline to do so. He said as recently as Sept. 18 that if he doesn't win in the first round, something must be "abnormal."
Information for this article was contributed by Daniel Politi and Carla Bridi of The Associated Press.
Former Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who is running for president again, right, and his wife Rosangela Silva celebrate after general election polls closed in in Sao Paulo, Brazil, Sunday, Oct. 2, 2022. (AP Photo/Marcelo Chello)
Former Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who is running for president again, speaks to supporters after general election polls closed in in Sao Paulo, Brazil, Sunday, Oct. 2, 2022. (AP Photo/Andre Penner)
Former Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who is running for president again, speaks to supporters after general election polls closed in Sao Paulo, Brazil, Sunday, Oct. 2, 2022.(AP Photo/Marcelo Chello)
Followers of former Brazilian President Luiz Inacio "Lula" da Silva, who is running for president again, react as they listen to the partial results after general election polls closed in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, Sunday, Oct. 2, 2022. (AP Photo/Silvia Izquierdo)
A follower of former Brazilian President Luiz Inacio "Lula" da Silva, who is running for president again, listens to the partial results after general election polls closed in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, Sunday, Oct. 2, 2022. (AP Photo/Matias Delacroix)
Followers of former Brazilian President Luiz Inacio "Lula" da Silva, who is running for president again, react as they listen to the partial results after general election polls closed in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, Sunday, Oct. 2, 2022. (AP Photo/Silvia Izquierdo)
Followers of former Brazilian President Luiz Inacio "Lula" da Silva, who is running for president again, listen to the partial results after general election polls closed in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, Sunday, Oct. 2, 2022. (AP Photo/Silvia Izquierdo)
Supporter of Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, who is running for another term, ride a motorcycle after the general election polls closed in Brasilia, Brazil, Sunday, Oct. 2, 2022. (AP Photo/Ton Molina)
Followers of former Brazilian President Luiz Inacio "Lula" da Silva, who is running for president again, celebrate partial results after general election polls closed in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, Sunday, Oct. 2, 2022. (AP Photo/Silvia Izquierdo)