Low water on the lower Mississippi River has come at the worst time for farmers -- harvest season.
The river's level will affect Arkansas farmers' pocketbooks as shipping costs rise for crops. The price to ship fertilizer coming up river for fall planting is also rising.
The Mississippi is the largest U.S. export channel for corn and soybeans, accounting for more than half of U.S. export shipments, said Scott Stiles, agricultural economist for the University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture.
Arkansas farmers typically harvest corn, soybeans and rice in early fall and prepare crops for export.
National Weather Service Memphis hydrologist Katie Dedeaux said the Mississippi River was -8.01 feet near Memphis on Monday morning.
Every river has a different "normal" level based on where the gauge is set, and there are different "normal" levels for different times during the year, Dedeaux said.
"This is obviously well below normal," Dedeaux said. "We're getting close to record territory, we're within the top 10 lowest that it's been on record, and it's not just the last decade, this would be the whole period of record."
There is a loss in barge loading capacity when river levels are as low -- referred to as "draft restrictions" in the industry. It has created a backlog as the ability to move grain today is cut in half, Stiles said.
"Low water levels will push barge freight rates higher," said Andrew McKenzie, professor of agricultural economics and agribusiness for the University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture and the Dale Bumpers College of Agricultural, Food and Life Sciences.
"This means the cost of getting commodities down the Mississippi for export increases and grain firms will lower their cash prices to farmers because of this higher cost."
Stiles said there's not a lot the farmers can do about this problem other than to deliver their contracted bushels. Grain not under contract preferably should go into on-farm storage until the situation improves, he said.
The USDA's weekly Grain Transportation report last week noted barge freight rates have increased steadily since early August.
The St. Louis barge rate for export grain had reached $49.88 per ton as of last Tuesday; 95% higher than the five-year average and 58% higher than a year prior.
"Elevator managers tell me a normal [Mississippi River] barge tow is 35 barges at 70,000 bushels a barge, moving 2.45 million bushels at a time down the river. The current water level on the Mississippi has resulted in barge tows dropping to 25 barges able to ship about 45,000 bushels apiece, or 1.13 million bushels," Stiles said.
Shipping grain by barge is still the most cost-effective way to do it, as one barge can hold the same amount of grain as 16 rail cars or 70 semi-trucks, Stiles said, adding trucks aren't the best option to relive the pressure as they are in short supply.
Some elevators will temporarily stockpile grain, Stiles said. "We certainly have the weather to be able to do that for a little while," he said.
The logistical challenge created by low water on the Mississippi River couldn't have come at a worse time.
"River terminals are filling with soybeans and other grains, and some are being forced to close until they are able to move bushels onto barges," Stiles said.
Stiles said another issue for farmers is fertilizer, which moves up the Mississippi River from the Gulf of Mexico.
"There's a risk of that not being in place for fall application," Stiles said. "There's also the prospect of fertilizer prices increasing too as a result of higher barge freight."
Most of Arkansas is again experiencing moderate to severe drought, with a few pockets of abnormally dry conditions, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor, last updated Sept. 27.
A couple of southern counties remain unscathed by dry conditions, but Crawford and Sebastian counties in west Arkansas are in extreme drought.
Average rainfall in Jonesboro for the month of September is 3.30 inches, but only 0.35 inch of rain fell the entire month, and the last measurable rainfall in the Jonesboro area was Sept. 9, the National Weather Service's Dedeaux said.
"At least in the next 7 to 10 days, we're not expecting any rainfall and even beyond that, for the next month or so, maybe even two months," Dedeaux said of eastern Arkansas.
Harvest in Arkansas is moving at a rapid pace this fall with the dry weather, Stiles said.
Some farmers will conduct prescribed burns to remove the stubble left over after harvest, but dry conditions could make this practice more dangerous.
The entire state is under a high wildfire risk, according to the Arkansas Forestry Commission's website.
There are currently 46 countywide burn bans across the state, though agriculture prescribed burns are exempt from burn bans under state law, according to the Arkansas Department of Agriculture.