If the Army shuttered its Pine Bluff Arsenal tomorrow, nearly 1,000 people would be out of relatively high-paying jobs, government spending would dry up and the annual economic loss to the vicinity would be about $158 million.
That's according to Matthew Schwalb, managing partner and senior analyst for ABLE Operations LLC, who addressed a meeting last month at the Arsenal's Compatible Economic Development Assessment Report Update.
The question was posed by local government officials.
The answer wasn't pretty, and closure isn't out of the question as the military installation's civilian employee numbers dwindle. Prior to 12 years ago, about 2,000 people worked there. Today, it's about 600. That's a drop by almost three-quarters, and now, only one active military personnel member remains.
It would be like "a bomb going off," according to the Arsenal's new commander, U.S. Army Col. Tod Marchand, when hearing the numbers.
FROM WEAPONS STORAGE TO PRODUCTION
In the days following the August meeting, Cheryl Avery, Pine Bluff Arsenal spokesperson, researched past employment numbers.
Prior to 2010, she said, "Approximately 2000-plus personnel worked at Pine Bluff Arsenal. This included civilians, military and contractor personnel."
Its mission changed since the last of the World-War-II-era chemical weapons stored there were destroyed. It became a military manufacturing site.
Five years later, there were approximately 800-plus civilian and military personnel working there. She added that today, that number has dropped another 200 and only one military personnel member remains, the commander, Marchand.
LONGER UNEMPLOYMENT LINES
More accurately, there are an estimated 951 direct, indirect and induced jobs created by the industries at the Arsenal. Induced jobs are created when direct and indirect employees go out and spend their increased incomes on consumer goods and services.
"The economic impact is eye-opening, to see those numbers and realize the fallout if the Arsenal closed," White Hall Mayor Noel Foster said.
Schwalb said, in a larger city like Tampa, Fla., closure of the Arsenal wouldn't have the same impact.
"The unemployed could more easily be absorbed into the existing workforce, but that's not the case here. It would be a hard pill to swallow," Schwalb said.
Despite the downward trend, the Arsenal remains one of Jefferson County's top employers.
David Beck is co-chair of the Military Affairs Advisory Committee.
"It would create a huge economic hole in Jefferson County, not easily filled," he said.
Beck has been a White Hall City Council member since 2001 and a member of the city's Chamber of Commerce.
About 62% of the employees who work at or benefit from the Arsenal live in Jefferson County. That includes towns like White Hall, Redfield and Pine Bluff, to name a few, with the remaining employees living in counties such as Saline, Pulaski and White, Schwalb said.
A single dollar is estimated to change hands at least twice before leaving the Jefferson County area.
"Closure would cause a ripple down effect, impacting restaurants, gas stations, grocery stores," Beck said.
ECONOMIC IMPACT
The Arsenal generates an annual payroll of about $62 million and spends about $96 million locally and around the state. About 60% of the Arsenal's supplies and products are purchased in-state.
The average annual compensation, inclusive of benefits, for all jobs, direct, indirect and induced, is approximately $90,000, which is nearly 80% higher than the regional average of $50,000.
Also, Schwalb said, most of these positions don't require a college degree and yet, most pay higher wages than most jobs in the country.
Schwalb said, if the installation closed, "those 951 people would probably find it difficult to find another job."
"The region has lost both jobs and industrial production for the last several decades, so it's imperative the Arsenal remains open and supported by local and state communities so it continues to provide above average wage paying jobs to the Pine Bluff region," he said.
"Given the economic struggles facing Jefferson County and the broader region, if the Arsenal were to shut down, the likelihood of those 951 jobs that are currently supported by the Arsenal's operations being replaced by local industry is low," Schwalb said.
There's more to consider beyond the income, sales and property taxes that are needed to support the county's municipal governments and school districts, according to the mayor.
"This is a legacy workforce and if the Arsenal went away, White Hall would lose its best recruiting tool," Foster said.
INCREASING THE ARSENAL'S WORKLOAD
Most of these civilian jobs at the Arsenal are manufacturing-type jobs, similar to those in the private sector. However, the Arsenal products are produced exclusively for the U.S. Army, said Larry Wright, president of LE Wright & Associates PLLC. He also serves as White Hall's consulting engineer and as the grant project manager on the Hoadley Road upgrade project.
Avery said production at the Arsenal includes America's Joint Warfighter with specialized ammunition such as smoke and chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear (CBRN) defense. This also includes the logistics and storage of these products.
About two years ago, the manufacture of military protective clothing was added to the Arsenal's manufacturing line up.
Sen. John Boozman's office said he has "secured millions of dollars for munitions manufacturing at the Pine Bluff Arsenal and advocated for funding to manufacture chemical-biological personnel protective equipment at the Arsenal making it a top source for the protective gear."
A MISSION CRITICAL
Foster was behind a Jefferson County committee that had its start about six years ago, and includes 26 members comprised of local economic groups and White Hall, Pine Bluff and Jefferson County officials.
It's designed to support the mission of the Arsenal, and Wright is spearheading the effort.
So far, their work includes finding funding for a study and the engineering design of rehab of a two-mile stretch of Arkansas Highway 256, running from Interstate 530 to the Arsenal's Plainview Gate. This includes a cost estimate, about $9.8 million, for resurfacing the entire stretch, shoulder-widening the highway from Dollarway Road to the Arsenal's Plainview Gate, and installing a bridge to replace one built about 80 years ago.
"We are more focused and committed to sustaining the Arsenal's mission and keeping it in Jefferson County," Foster said.
But repaving a road isn't enough and there are other avenues to pursue, Wright said.
Schwalb noted that about 40% of their purchases are with out-of-state companies, including some in Georgia, Pennsylvania, South Carolina and Louisiana.
"Some of this work could possibly be done by Arkansas companies," and by adding jobs to its bottom line, Schwalb said.
These include research and development in the physical, engineering, and life sciences; and manufacturing of products such as carbon and graphite, plastic bottle, adhesives, fabricated metal, polystyrene, urethane and other foams and paperboard mills, and other measuring and controlling device manufacturing.
"The Arsenal offers many economic development opportunities for the surrounding region," Schwalb said.
Both he and Wright said they feel that it's often difficult for small, inexperienced companies to maneuver through government websites to find contract work, not to mention wading through the paperwork needed to complete a bid application.
"We're talking with the Arsenal about creating a centralized website so that it's easier for local businesses to find economic opportunities. For many, it's too hard so they don't try or give up," Foster said.
IT TAKES A PLATOON
Like others on the committee, they are recruiting supporters like Boozman, who is a frequent visitor to the Jefferson County military installation, according to Arsenal staff. He met with Marchand on Aug. 11.
"I understand how important the Pine Bluff Arsenal is to the community and the region," Boozman said, adding that the facility is "a cost effective location with an exceptional workforce."
He has supported the Arsenal in the past, saying he has worked to secure funding, and in effect prioritized, protected and advanced its mission.
Moreover, Boozman, who is a member of the U.S. Senate Appropriations Committee, stresses the importance of maintaining a future role for this installation.
The Arsenal commander is also on board.
"We will continue to build on our ammunition and chemical defense expertise by controlling our cost, developing the expertise of our workforce and cultivating future workload," Marchand said. "We will work hard to form more public-private partnerships that will complement our current missions as well as future missions."
About two years ago, ReadyOne Industries started manufacturing chemical and biological protective clothing at the Pine Bluff Arsenal. (Special to The Commercial)
A file photo shows a staffer making face coverings. The Pine Bluff Arsenal's mission has changed to manufacturing military products such as smoke and protective clothing. (Special to The Commercial)