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Rick Lee’s Kentucky Derby analysis

by Rick Lee | May 6, 2023 at 1:59 a.m.

Rick Lee's Kentucky Derby analysis


17 Derma SotogakeLemaireOtonashi10-1

COMMENT Showed good speed before powering away easily winning the UAE Derby, and the lack of opposing speed make him the one to beat.

3 Two Phil'sLoveberryRivelli12-1

COMMENT Is a rapidly improving colt who earned the fastest Beyer figure winning a Grade 3 at Turfway, and he certainly trains well on dirt.

14 Angel of EmpirePratCox8-1

COMMENT Finished powerfully drawing off to a convincing Arkansas Derby victory, and he is peaking at the right time and may love the added ground.

15 ForteI. OrtizPletcher3-1

COMMENT Is the reigning champion in this division and he won the Florida Derby in determined style, but the verdict is out if he is any better at three than two.

6 KingsbarnsJ. OrtizPletcher12-1

COMMENT Set a moderate pace before kicking clear in a comfortable Louisiana Derby win, and the unbeaten colt has steadily ascending Beyer figures.

22 Mandarin HeroKimuraFujita20-1

COMMENT Was beaten a nose in a three-horse photo finish in the Santa Anita Derby, and he gives Japanese bred horses a solid chance win.

5 Tapit TriceSaezPletcher5-1

COMMENT Rraced wide in a deceptively good Blue Grass victory at Keeneland, and the winner of four straight figures to appreciate ten-furlongs.

2 VerifyingGaffalioneCox15-1

COMMENT Was caught inside the final yards by Tapit Trice in the Blue Grass, but he did have the easier trip.

8 MageCastellanoDelgado15-1

COMMENT Broke a touch slow and may have moved too early when beaten only one-length by Forte in the Florida Derby.

1 Hit ShowFrancoCox30-1

COMMENT Had a two-race winning streak snapped when beaten a diminishing nose in the Wood Memoral at Aqueduct.

4 Confidence GameGrahamDesormeaux20-1

COMMENT Splashed his way to an upset victory in the Grade II Rebel at Oaklawn , and he figures on or near the early lead.

21 Cyclone MischiefRosarioRomans30-1

COMMENT Crossed the wire third best in the Florida Derby, and he switches to world class rider Joel Rosario.

11 DisarmRosarioAsmussen30-1

COMMENT Had some traffic trouble when finishing second behind Kingsbarns in the Louisiana Derby, and his recent works at Churchill have been sharp.

18 Rocket CanAlvaradoMott30-1

COMMENT Was one-paced as a beaten post-time favorite in the Arkansas Derby, but he is adding blinkers and may rebound.

23 King RussellBejaranoMoquett50-1

COMMENT Finished with energy when finishing a non-threatening second in the Arkansas Derby.

13 Sun ThunderHernandezMcPeek50-1

COMMENT Finished a dull fourth in the Blue Grass, and connections are hoping for more with an addition of blinkers.

7 ReincarnateVelazquezYakteen50-1

COMMENT Was forwardly placed before tiring a bit when third in the Arkansas Derby.

16 Raise CainCorralesColebrook50-1

COMMENT Passed tired horses to garner fifth-place money in the Blue Grass, and races poorly as a juvenile at Churchill.

12 Jace's RoadGerouxCox50-1

COMMENT Recorded a minor stake win earlier in the season when able to control the pace, which is unlikely in this race.

SCRATCHED HORSES No. 9 Skinner, No. 10 Practical Move, No. 19 Lord Miles, No. 20 Continuar.

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