Theres a full betting and odds breakdown for this primetime matchup, so for the purposes of this article well focus on Player Props. While the Saints and Panthers dont scream offensive superstars, theres still some really juicy options to focus on for our prop bets.
The oddsmakers at SI Sportsbook list the Panthers as 2.5 point home underdogs and the Over/Under is set at 39.5 which is tied for the second lowest total in Week 2. Considering the Saints are road favorites, bettors should assume a game-script that reflects New Orleans leading most of the game by at least a field goal but more likely six points (if this was a Saints home game they would be favored by 5.5). With that in mind and factoring in the very low point total, we expect a slow pace and a lot of rushing attempts for Saints running backs, which will help us narrow down our player props.
Lets get into it.
Saints and Panthers Anytime Touchdown Best Bets:
Anytime Touchdown: Jamaal Williams +100
Anytime touchdown props give bettors an opportunity to get a plus-money wager with a very straight forward bet: Does Player A score a touchdown-Yes or No? The favorite to find the endzone in this contest is Saints running back Jamaal Williams at +100. With Alvin Kamara suspended for two more games, Williams should get the bulk of the workload in Week 2. He had a tough matchup against one of the best run defenses (Titans) in Week 1 but the Panthers run defense is much more vulnerable. In Week 1, Saints quarterback Derek Carr had seven passing attempts inside the 20 yard-line but completed just one for a touchdown. Expect the Saints to pound the rock with the NFLs 2022 touchdown leader.
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Saints and Panthers Receiving Prop Best Bets
Adam Thielen UNDER 32.5
Rashid Shaheed: Over 2.5 catches
Rashid Shaheed: Over 37.5 yards
In Bryce Youngs first professional start he targeted six different pass catchers but only one had more than three catches. Tight End Hayden Hurst led the team with five catches for 41 yards (and was the only Panthers pass catcher to reach the end-zone). Young completed just 52.6% of his passes for a measly 146 yards and now faces a very stout Saints secondary. Panthers dont have a true No. 1 receiving option but veteran Adam Thielen has the highest yardage total among all Panthers receivers. His number sits at 32.5 and after getting two targets for 12 yards with an Average Depth of Target of four yards, Im hammering this under at -110.
On the other side of the ball the Saints have a trio of pass catchers that all played well in Week 1. Chris Olave and Michael Thomas both had more targets than Rashid Shaheed but Shaheed was much more efficient with his catches thanks to 14.8 yards per catch and an eye popping 16.2 aDOT. Shaheeds receiving total is 37.5 on SI Sportsbook which is essentially 2.5 catches for him which as the oddsmakers would have it is also his reception total. Im going for a double-pop on Shaheed with the over on both his catches and yards.
Saints vs. Panthers Lotto Ticket Player Prop
Hayden Hurst Anytime TD +400
Last week my lotto ticket prop was Aaron Rodgers anytime touchdown at +700. That hope and dream lasted all of four plays. Heres to hoping Rodgers has a speedy recovery. But the rest of us have to move on. Remember, lotto ticket bets have an implied probability of 20% or lower (+400 odds or greater). I wager much less on these bets as they are much riskier by nature.
The only Panthers player to get a target inside the red-zone in Week 1 was tight end Hayden Hurst. In fact, Hurst caught both of his targets inside the 20-yard line for 18 yards and a score. Its common knowledge that rookie quarterbacks tend to pepper their tight ends with targets and I expect Young to do the same for the second week in a row.
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