10 Super Bowl LVIII Player Props to Target

Super Bowl LVIII is just a few short days away! Looking to get in on the action?

Here are my 10 favorite player props for Sunday's big game between the Kansas City Chiefs and the San Francisco 49ers.

Related: 10 Novelty Props for Super Bowl LVIII

1. Brock Purdy under 1.5 passing touchdowns (+110)

Purdy had 31 passing touchdowns during the regular season, which ranked third behind only Dak Prescott and Jordan Love. Purdy has one passing touchdown in each postseason game this year.

The Chiefs have allowed an average of only one passing TD per game in the postseason, and they allowed only 19 passing touchdowns across 17 regular-season games. With Christian McCaffrey -- and even Deebo Sameul -- to share scores with, Purdy should go under this mark. If you can still find plus money, jump on it.

2. Brock Purdy over 3.5 rushing attempts (+135)

The Chiefs allowed the third-most rushing attempts to quarterbacks during the regular season and they have allowed the most rushing attempts in the postseason -- for an average of 7.5 per game. Eleven regular season QBs exceeded this mark vs. the Chiefs, and both Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen easily exceeded it in the postseason, with Tua Tagovailoa getting close with three. Purdy has exceeded this mark in both postseason games, with six attempts vs. the Packers and five vs. the Lions. This plus money payout is very appealing.

Mark J. Rebilas/USA Today sports

3. Brock Purdy under 21.5 pass completions (-120)

The Chiefs have allowed an average of just 20.25 passing completions per game this season, and Purdy has completed 22 or more passes only four times this year, including postseason.

4. Patrick Mahomes under 26.5 rushing yards (-115)

Yes, Mahomes had career highs in rushing yards and rushing attempts this year for an average of more than 24 yards per game, but the Niners have allowed fewer than 18 rushing yards per game to quarterbacks, including postseason. In two postseason games, San Francisco has allowed only three rushing yards on five attempts to opposing passers. Mahomes has averaged 25 yards per game in the postseason, going under this mark twice.

5. Patrick Mahomes under 0.5 INT (+100)

Yes, Mahomes had a career-high 14 interceptions this season and yes, San Francisco's 22 regular-season interceptions tied with Chicago for the most in the league; but, the last time Mahomes threw a postseason interception was in the AFC championship game vs. the Cincinnati Bengals in 2022. Plus, the even-money payout is attractive.

6. George Kittle over 20.5 longest reception (-115)

Kittle has exceeded this prop 12 times this year, including in both postseason games vs. the Lions and the Packers. Including postseason, the Chiefs have allowed only three tight ends to exceed this prop but they have allowed 30 receivers to exceed it (wideouts plus tight ends). Kittle's 483 regular-season yards after the catch ranked third among tight ends and 13th among all NFL receivers.

7. Isiah Pacheco over 64.5 rushing yards (-115)

This is higher than Pacheco's per-game average during the regular season, but he exceeded it in two of three postseason contests, only missing by a half a yard vs. the Ravens when the prop was 68.5 and he tallied 68 yards. Pacheco is averaging 4.02 yards per carry in the postseason and 84.3 yards per game. He has rushed an average of 21 times per game in the postseason -- the most of all playoff running backs. He also has three rushing touchdowns in those three contests.

In the postseason, the 49ers have allowed the most yards per game to opposing runners (131). In the NFC title game, the Niners allowed 100 total yards to David Montgomery and Jahmyr GIbbs, and in the previous round, Aaron Jones burned them for 108 on his own.

(AP Photo/Matt Ludtke)

8. Isiah Pacheco over 15.5 longest rush (-115)

Pacheco exceeded this prop in seven of 14 regular-season games, and in two of three games in the postseason. The Niners have allowed 13 different running backs to exceed this mark, including Aaron Jones and David Montgomery in the postseason. Jahmyr Gibbs's longest gain was just under this mark at 15.

9. Travis Kelce receiving yards over 70.5 (-115)

The Niners have only allowed more than 70.5 yards to a tight end three times this season (including postseason). However, they have not faced many elite tight ends this year. Sam LaPorta, T.J. Hockenson and Trey McBride were the three that exceeded this mark. Kelce had more than 70.5 receiving yards eight times this season -- three of those times being in the playoffs.

10. Travis Kelce longest reception over 20.5 (-113)

Kelce has gone over this mark 10 times this year, including all three playoff games.

The Niners have allowed NINE tight ends to exceed this mark -- including lesser-known players such as Geoff Swaim, Colby Parkinson and Will Dissly. They have allowed 35 receivers (tight ends plus wideouts) to exceed this mark across 19 games played. 

Related: Stats and Trends for Super Bowl LVIII Player Props: Quarterbacks


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