Democrats are hoping to regain control of the state House of Representatives from Republicans in Tuesday’s election, two years after the GOP stripped control of the House and Senate from the Democrats for the first time since Reconstruction.
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The House has 51 Republicans, 48 Democrats and a Green Party member.
Thirty-five Republicans and 27 Democrats are unopposed for House seats in Tuesday’s election. Three Republicans have only third-party challengers for House seats, and one Democrat has only a third-party challenger.
There are 34 House races that pit Democratic and Republican candidates, and some of them have third-party candidates as well.
House Democratic leader Eddie Armstrong of North Little Rock said Thursday that it’s premature to predict that Democrats will win control of the House on Tuesday.
“It’s too close to call,” he said. “Northeast Arkansas is a particular battleground for us.”
Armstrong said it’s possible that Democrats could gain one or two House seats in Northwest Arkansas and one seat in Arkadelphia.
In Northwest Arkansas, Fayetteville Democrat Candy Clark is challenging Rep. Charlie Collins, R-Fayetteville, while Bentonville Democrat Leah Williams is taking on Rep. Jim Dotson, R-Bentonville. Another Democrat, Grimsley Graham of Rogers, is vying with Rogers Republican Rebecca Petty for the seat of term-limited Rep. Debra Hobbs, R-Rogers.
In southwest Arkansas, Amity Democrat Damon Daniels is trying to oust Rep. Richard Womack, R-Arkadelphia.
“It’s all about [voter] turnout and getting out your base,” Armstrong said.
House Republican leader Ken Bragg of Sheridan said Thursday that he’s confident that Republicans will retain control of the House.
“If I had to make a prediction, I would think we would pick up several seats,” he said.
Potentially, Republicans could gain three or four seats, he said, conceivably, they could lose one or two.
“Everything seems close this year,” he said. “If turnout is large, you won’t know until you see the results whether it [favors] Republicans or Democrats.”
Bragg said there’s a good chance that Jonesboro Republican Dan Sullivan will oust state Rep. Homer Lenderman, D-Brookland, adding that three other House races in Craighead County are close.
Those races pit Jonesboro Republican Dwight Tosh against Jonesboro Democrat Radius Baker for the seat held by Rep. John Hutchison, R-Harrisburg; Jonesboro Republican Brandt Smith against Rep. Harold Copenhaver, D-Jonesboro; and Jonesboro Republican Jack Ladyman against Jonesboro Democrat Ron Carroll for the seat held by term-limited Rep. Butch Wilkins, D-Bono.
Bragg said Little Rock Republican Stacy Hurst’s bid to win the seat held by term-limited Rep. John Edwards, D-Little Rock, is a close one, too. Clarke Tucker of Little Rock is trying to hold onto the seat for the Democrats.
“It is going to be an interesting night,” Bragg said. “We’ll probably see surprises on both sides.”
State Republican Party Chairman Doyle Webb of Benton predicted that Republicans will retain all of the House seats now held by Republicans, and “we will win two to three other seats at a minimum from the Democrats, and those could be anywhere in central Arkansas to northeast Arkansas.”
Webb said several candidates have a good shot at taking seats from Democrats. Among them are: Sherwood Republican Karilyn Brown who faces Sherwood Democrat Danny Knight for the seat held by term-limited Rep. Jim Nickels, D-Sherwood; Sherwood Republican Donnie Copeland who faces Rep. Patti Julian, D-North Little Rock; and Leachville Republican Dave Wallace who is trying to unseat Rep. Wes Wagner, D-Manila.
Webb added that the GOP’s best shots at picking up seats also include the races between: Smith and Copenhaver; Ladyman and Carroll; Batesville Republican James Sturch and Batesville Democrat Lackey Moody for the seat held by Rep. James McLean, D-Batesville; and Hot Springs Republican Laurie Rushing and Rep. David Kizzia, D-Malvern.
Hurst’s bid for the state House “may be one of our closest victories, but she has truly been a great campaigner in that area,” said Webb. “She has been an outstanding advocate for redevelopment of parts of Little Rock and parts of that district.”
But state Democratic Party Chairman Vince Insalaco of North Little Rock said Tucker will win the House seat because, “Stacy has fumbled the ball in the race from the beginning, and she is running as a Democrat.”
Insalaco said his goal is to flip the House “and flipping the House in my book is 50 seats.”
He said he hopes to win 51 seats “and I can see it going a few seats higher than that.”
Insalaco said his party’s best shots at picking up seats include the races between Little Rock Democrat John Adams and Little Rock Republican Jim Sorvillo for a seat held by Rep. Alan Kerr, R-Little Rock; and between Conway Democrat Frank Shaw and Rep. David Meeks, R-Conway.
Mountain Home Democrat Willa Mae Tilley could also beat Mountain Home Republican Nelda Speaks for the seat of term-limited Rep. Karen Hopper, R-Mountain Home, he said. Insalaco said he also likes Baker’s chances against Tosh.
The Democrats’ best shots at gaining seats also include Daniels’ challenge of Womack, Williams’ challenge of Dotson and Clark’s challenge of Collins, as well as Graham in his race against Petty, Insalaco said.
The Senate has 21 Republicans, 13 Democrats, and a vacant seat as a result of Mountain Home Republican Johnny Key’s Aug. 1 resignation to work for the University of Arkansas System.
Seventeen of the Senate’s 35 seats won’t be on the ballot until 2016.
Of the 18 Senate seats up for grabs on the ballot, nine Republicans and five Democrats are unopposed in Tuesday’s election.
Three Senate races are between Democrats and Republicans.
Democrats and Republicans said the most competitive race is the one that pits state Rep. James McLean, D-Batesville, and former Rep. Linda Collins-Smith, R-Pocahontas, for the seat held by Batesville Democrat David Wyatt, who defeated Collins-Smith in 2012.
The other two races are the rematch between state Sen. Robert Thompson, D-Paragould, and Corning Republican Blake Johnson, who lost to Thompson in 2012; and Conway Democrat Tyler Pearson’s challenge of state Sen. Jason Rapert, R-Bigelow. In addition, Sen. Bill Sample, R-Hot Springs, faces a third-party challenge from independent George Prichett.
Senate Republican leader Eddie Joe Williams of Cabot said Wyatt’s and Thompson’s Senate seats “are both winnable” for his party.
Collins-Smith has “a very good chance” of defeating McLean, Williams said, adding that Johnson’s challenge of Thompson is “a tossup.”
Webb expects Collins-Smith to defeat McLean partly because Collins-Smith “is opposed to the Obama agenda, which resonates with the people of that district.”
Collins-Smith opposes the private option that uses federal Medicaid dollars to buy private health insurance for low-income Arkansans, while McLean supports the program.
But Insalaco said “one of these days these people are going to wake up and realize the private option is not Obamacare and that Arkansas has been a predominant beneficiary of the private option,” adding that he hopes McLean defeats Collins-Smith.
Senate Democratic leader Keith Ingram of West Memphis said Thompson, McLean and Pearson have “done everything they can to get elected.”
Ingram said it appears that Republicans have shifted resources from trying to oust Thompson to trying to defeat McLean, and the race between McLean and Collins-Smith “will be extremely close. But he’ll win in the end.”