BEIJING -- China's imports of soybeans surged in November after the announcement of an interim trade deal with the United States.
Imports rose 53.7% over a year earlier to 5.4 million tons, according to customs data.
Imports of U.S. soybeans more than doubled from the previous month to 2.6 million tons, according to AWeb.com, a news website that serves the Chinese farming industry.
President Donald Trump likes to joke that America's farmers have a nice problem on their hands: They're going to need bigger tractors to keep up with surging Chinese demand for their soybeans and other agricultural goods under a preliminary deal between the world's two largest economies.
But from Beijing to America's farm belt, skeptics are questioning just how much China has actually committed to buy -- and whether U.S. farmers would be able anytime soon to export goods there in the outsize quantity that Trump has promised.
China cut off purchases of American soybeans, the country's biggest import from the United States, after Trump raised import duties on Chinese goods in a dispute over Beijing's technology ambitions and trade surplus.
The two governments announced an interim "Phase 1" agreement in October but have yet to release details. U.S. officials say it might be signed as early as January.
U.S. officials said as part of that deal, Beijing will buy more American farm exports. Chinese officials have yet to confirm the possible scale of purchases.
It amounts to $40 billion a year, according to Trump's trade representative, Robert Lighthizer. Trump says the total is actually "much more than" $50 billion. To put that in perspective, U.S. farm exports to China have never topped $26 billion in any one year.
"History has never been even close to that level," said Chad Hart, an agricultural economist at Iowa State University. "There's no clear path to get us there in one year."
Chinese government representatives said in September that importers were placing orders for American soybeans, but no details of purchases have been announced.
In addition, China's demand for imported pork has intensified because its own pig herds have been decimated by an outbreak of African swine fever. Yet that same outbreak could reduce China's need for American soybeans: Fewer hogs could mean less demand for soybeans and other sources of feed.
What's more, since Trump's trade war with Beijing broke out last year, China has increased its farm purchases from Brazil, Argentina and other countries. As a result, Beijing may now be locked into contracts it couldn't break even if it intended to quickly increase its purchases of American agricultural goods to something approximating $40 billion.
"The figure of $40 billion," added Cui Fan, a trade specialist at the University of International Business and Economics in Beijing, "is larger than I expected, and I wonder whether the United States can ensure the full supply of the products."
America's farmers would surely like to. The farm belt has endured much of the impact from Beijing's retaliatory tariffs since July 2018, when the Trump administration imposed taxes on $360 billion in Chinese imports. Beijing struck back by taxing $120 billion in U.S. exports, including soybeans and other farm goods that are vital to many of Trump's supporters in rural America.
The impact from China's retaliatory tariffs was substantial: U.S. farm exports to China, which hit a record $25.9 billion in 2012, plummeted last year to $9.1 billion. Soybean exports to China fell even more -- to a 12-year low of $3.1 billion, according to the Department of Agriculture. Farm exports to China have rebounded somewhat this year but remain well below pre-trade-war levels.
The so-called Phase 1 deal that the two sides announced Dec. 13 did manage to deescalate the standoff and offer at least a respite to American farmers. Yet the truce put off for future negotiations the toughest and most complex issue at the heart of the trade war: the Trump administration's assertion that Beijing cheats in its drive to achieve global supremacy in such advanced technologies as driver-less cars and artificial intelligence.
The administration alleges -- and independent analysts generally agree -- that China steals technology, forces foreign companies to hand over trade secrets, unfairly subsidizes its own firms and throws up bureaucratic hurdles for foreign rivals. Beijing has rejected the accusations and contended that the administration is instead trying to suppress a rising competitor in international trade.
Under the preliminary U.S.-China deal, Trump suspended his plan to impose new tariffs and reduced some existing taxes on Chinese imports. In return, Lighthizer said, China agreed to buy more U.S. farm products over two years, among other things.
Many farmers say they're hopeful but restrained in their expectations.
"At this point, we have to wait to see more details," said Jeff Jorgensen, who farms about 3,000 acres in southwest Iowa.
Yet the Trump administration has released no text of the agreement. And a fact sheet that Lighthizer's office issued didn't specify the target for increased Chinese farm purchases. What's more, Beijing has so far declined to confirm the $40 billion figure.
"After the agreement is officially signed, the contents of the agreement will be announced to the public," said Gao Feng, a spokesman for the Commerce Ministry.
Still, China's surge of U.S. soybean imports in November is a sign that reduced tensions might have begun to ease the strain on American farmers.
Beijing insists, though, that its farm purchases will be based on consumer demand and market prices, pointedly implying that it won't buy more than it needs just to satisfy the Trump administration's promises.
"The purchases should be based on market principles," said Tu Xinquan, director of the China Institute for World Trade Organization Studies in Beijing. "The United States should compete with other countries through price and quality."
U.S. farmers sound wary. Some worry that the prolonged trade war will brand the United States an unreliable trade partner in China and jeopardize access to a vast Chinese market that had increased its purchases of U.S. farm products from less than $1 billion a year in the early 1990s to nearly $26 billion by 2012. U.S. farm exports to China then fluctuated between about $20 billion to $25 billion a year before Trump's trade war broke out in earnest last year.
Farmers have watched with frustration as breakthroughs in the trade war appeared several times to have been achieved only to collapse soon thereafter.
"I think it's a lot of false promises again," said Bob Kuylen, who grows wheat and sunflowers and raises cattle near South Heart, N.D. "I'd love to see $50 billion, but I don't think it will ever happen ... It's just almost an impossible thing, so why even say it?"
Information for this article was contributed by staff members of The Associated Press.
A Section on 12/27/2019