DHAHRAN, Saudi Arabia -- Saudi Arabia has formally begun an initial public offering of a sliver of the oil giant Saudi Aramco after years of delay.
An approval Sunday by Saudi Arabia's Capital Market Authority served as the starting point for an IPO promised by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman since 2016. But unlike in traditional IPOs, Saudi Aramco offered no hoped-for price range for its shares nor any idea of how much of the firm would be offered to investors on Riyadh's Tadawul stock exchange.
Analysts say the kingdom likely hopes that local investors will push the share price toward a desired $2 trillion valuation ahead of any possible further listing abroad. Saudi Aramco made a point in its filings to highlight its profitability and low costs through newly released data once held as a state secret by the Al Saud royal family, referred to by the company as its "current shareholder."
However, economic worries, the trade war between China and the U.S., and increased crude oil production by the U.S. have depressed energy prices. A Sept. 14 attack on Saudi Aramco facilities already spooked some investors, with one ratings company already downgrading the oil giant.
"We want to share the Aramco shares with the citizens of Saudi Arabia," said Yasir al-Rumayyan, the governor of Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund. "We want to get financial investors from all over the world."
The oil firm, known formally as the Saudi Arabian Oil Co., produces more than 10 million barrels of crude oil a day, some 10% of global demand. The firm's net income in 2018 was $111.1 billion, far beyond the combined net income of oil giants BP PLC, Chevron Corp., Exxon Mobil Corp., Royal Dutch Shell PLC and Total SA.
Saudi Arabia's oil sits close to the surface in large pools, making it far cheaper to extract. Saudi Aramco has proven liquid reserves of 226.8 billion barrels, the largest of any company in the world and "approximately five times larger" than those held by the five oil giants, according to the firm's IPO documents.
Investors have clamored for Saudi Aramco stock since Crown Prince Mohammed announced plans in 2016 for a two-phase IPO of 5% of the firm in the kingdom and abroad. The crown prince hopes to raise some $100 billion from investors, which would be funneled into the kingdom's sovereign wealth fund for efforts to boost employment and for major development projects.
"I believe it is in the interest of the Saudi market, and it is in the interest of Aramco," Crown Prince Mohammed told Economist magazine in 2016 in announcing his plans.
But the planned IPO faced years of delays over concerns about valuation and where to list it abroad. Oil prices, once over $100 a barrel, crashed in 2014 to under $30 a barrel. Benchmark Brent crude now trades around $60 a barrel, pushed up by a production cut by OPEC countries like Saudi Arabia and those outside the cartel, including Russia. Those cuts have limited Saudi production, in turn raising its estimated government budget deficit for next year to nearly $50 billion.
The announcement by the Capital Market Authority offered no timeline, share price or percentage of the company to be offered in the IPO, nor did officials or the documents that were later released by Saudi Aramco.
Both al-Rumayyan and Amin H. Nasser, Saudi Aramco's chief executive officer and president, also declined to say whether an international listing would still happen. The two were addressing journalists in Dhahran in eastern Saudi Arabia, the city that hosts Saudi Aramco's headquarters.
"Usually when you go for an IPO, you have a target price," said Ranjith Raja, an oil analyst at data firm Refinitiv. "There's still no clarity in what they're trying to look at."
Based on that, Saudi Arabia may choose to rely on local investors to push up the price of the stock, Raja said.
The Saudi-owned satellite channel Al-Arabiya reported last week, citing anonymous sources, that pricing for the stock will begin Nov. 17. A final price for the stock will be set Dec. 4, with shares then beginning to be traded on the Tadawul on Dec. 11, the channel reported. The channel is believed to have close links to the kingdom's royal family and correctly identified Sunday as the IPO's launch date.
Analysts say a $2 trillion valuation -- Apple and Microsoft, for instance, are each at $1 trillion -- may be a stretch. By announcing the start of the IPO on Sunday, Crown Prince Mohammed may have been convinced to take a lower valuation in order to get the IPO moving.
Saudi Aramco has sought to assure investors, given the questions over its valuation and the potential hazards of future attacks or geopolitical risk. A presentation posted to the firm's website last month announced the intent to offer a $75 billion dividend for investors in 2020. That's the payment per share that a corporation distributes to its stockholders as their return on the money they have invested.
It also pledged that from 2020 through 2024, any year with a dividend under $75 billion would see "non-government shareholders" prioritized to get paid.
But beyond the stocks, worries persist that Saudi Arabia could be hit by another attack like the one Sept. 14, which temporarily halved its production. The U.S. blames the attack on Iran, though the Iranian government denies it launched the cruise missiles and drones used in the assault. Yemen's Houthi rebels claimed responsibility, but analysts say the weapons used in the attack wouldn't have the range to reach their targets from Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen.
Responding to a journalist's question about the safety of a Saudi Aramco investment, al-Rumayyan spoke about how quickly the company restored production after the attack.
"The oil traders, they saw this as a nonevent, and that means it is really safe," he said. "That's what the money is saying."
Business on 11/05/2019
Print Headline: Saudis announce oil firm's IPO