A few mildly savvy persons had the idea that the best of bad Democratic bets against U.S. Rep. French Hill would be to challenge him with a well-known, widely liked candidate without strong political definition.
There was a person generally fitting that description who was interested in running for a time. The theory was that such a candidate would cop by default all the Democratic base in Little Rock but maybe not bleed as profusely as Democrats normally have hemorrhaged in Saline, White and Faulkner Counties.
But state Sen. Joyce Elliott filed instead, which means something entirely different. It is that the Democrats will rely on what's called a base election.
That means one in which the Democratic voters would be uncommonly fired up. And no one fires up the Little Rock-centered Democratic base like Elliott, the liberal lioness of Arkansas.
Once Elliott decided to run, there was no chance for anyone else in a primary, even if someone else might run better against Hill in the general election--or better than when Elliott ran against Tim Griffin in 2010, when she carried Pulaski County but came in at 38 percent district-wide.
It's rough for a Democrat crossing the Pulaski County line. The truth is that it starts to get rough right after you cross Little Rock city limits.
In 2018, Democrats took what they thought was their best shot with the bright young center-leftist lawyer Clarke Tucker of Little Rock. He racked up in Little Rock, led solidly in Pulaski County, and got wiped out 80-20 in White County and something approximating that in Saline County.
The Democratic Congressional Committee sustained some criticism for pre-anointing the white male Tucker in that race. This time, national party figures inquired of Tucker's interest in a rematch--he chose otherwise--and ended up encouraging Elliott to turn out the base in what will be an election of a different tenor with the presidential race at the top of the ballot.
Elliott most recently has been highly visible advocating for the Little Rock public schools and its teachers against the charter-school champions in and around the Republican governor's office.
It's not clear how much Democratic turnout Elliott could generate in a presidential year that didn't turn out for Tucker. The fact is that Tucker was buoyed by Frank Scott's mayoral race, which heavily turned out black voters.
Through it all, there remains the observation of Robert Coon, managing partner of the Impact Management Group in Little Rock and a political consultant of a relatively moderate Republicanism.
He wrote an op-ed piece a few years ago saying that, for Democrats, the Second District was like the former girlfriend you couldn't get over, and whom you kept thinking you could win back, when in fact she'd become happily married and pined for you approximately never.
Tucker's 45 percent might be about the best Democrats can do. But then they see Vic Snyder walking around town and remember that he, a liberal iconoclast, was the Democratic congressman inside a decade ago.
But nine years is a long time to carry a torch for an old flame. She dumped you. For some strange reason, she loves French and adores his crazy uncle, Donald Trump.
So, then, why not run Elliott with an unabashed liberal message? Why not tap the public-school passion? Why not play to your strength and wait to see how much damage Uncle Trump may sustain by impeachment?
If you're likely to lose, then lose with fire.
Here's one thing I'm pretty sure of, other than the outcome of the race, which I'm also pretty sure of: The one formal Second District debate--and I'm thinking Hill will agree only to one, and that it will be the widely unseen one on public television--will be dominated by Elliott.
She waxed Griffin in a debate in 2010, not that it mattered. The more relevant factor is that she went on a driving tour of the suburban and rural counties of the district accompanied by David Pryor and the late Dale Bumpers. Even Arkansas Political Mount Rushmore couldn't help her. And that was 2010, when some people still remembered Pryor and Bumpers.
There is no indication that those outlying counties are any different today except that they are more Republicanized than ever.
So, Democrats are giving the hungry base a candidate. Sometimes tactics and principle need not mutually exclude.
It'll probably be 60-40 for Hill, but there'll be no Democratic regrets.
I would point out that Tucker lost by 55-45 but was closer than that in polls until the Brett Kavanaugh debacle riled the Republican base. One thing that might help Elliott would be for the Democratic presidential nominee not to amount to a debacle.
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John Brummett, whose column appears regularly in the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette, is a member of the Arkansas Writers' Hall of Fame. Email him at jbrummett@arkansasonline.com. Read his @johnbrummett Twitter feed.
Editorial on 11/14/2019