MANAMA, Bahrain -- The deployment of 14,000 additional U.S. troops to the Persian Gulf region since the spring has probably not dissuaded Iran from planning a major attack on the scale of the recent missile and drone assault on Saudi Arabia's oil fields, the commander of U.S. forces in the Middle East said.
U.S. Marine Gen. Kenneth McKenzie, the head of the U.S. military's Central Command, said the additional troops, fighter jets and air defenses that the Pentagon has dispatched might have deterred Iran from attacking American targets -- like Iran's downing of an unmanned surveillance drone in June. But he said strikes against Persian Gulf nations were another matter.
"My judgment is that it is very possible they will attack again," McKenzie said in an interview last week ahead of an international security conference on Saturday.
"It's the trajectory and the direction that they're on," he added in a second interview later in the week. "The attack on the oil fields in Saudi was stunning in the depth of its audaciousness," he said of an assault in September that the United States and its European allies blame Iran for. "I wouldn't rule that out going forward."
McKenzie did not offer evidence that Iran was plotting an imminent attack against targets like oil facilities or desalinization plants -- citing only the ability of American military and spy agencies to detect patterns of worrisome but unspecified Iranian activities.
"Iran is under extreme pressure," McKenzie said, referring to the maximum-pressure campaign of economic sanctions that the Trump administration is employing against the country. He added that Iran was trying to "crack the campaign" with attacks to provoke a U.S. military response.
Speaking on Saturday at the regional security conference in Manama, Bahrain, the home of the Navy's Fifth Fleet, McKenzie pledged a continued American security commitment to the Persian Gulf.
He also urged regional partners like Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq and Oman to work with Washington in confronting any Iranian aggression.
Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates have joined the United States, Britain, Australia and Albania to form a maritime coalition to ensure safe passage through Middle Eastern waterways after a series of attacks on oil tankers in the Persian Gulf this past spring.
"Unfortunately, sometimes the Iranian regime has proved itself to be the bully in the neighborhood," McKenzie said in his remarks. "And the only way to stand up to a bully is to do it together."
Also addressing the security conference, John Rood, an undersecretary of defense, said that "Iran has made clear its intent to pursue a pattern of aggressive behavior that is destabilizing."
The Pentagon officials' comments came as regional allies have tried to de-escalate tensions in the Persian Gulf region. The Emirates, in particular, has broken ranks with President Donald Trump's hard-line approach to Iran, sending a coast guard delegation to Tehran in July to discuss maritime security issues.
American diplomats have sought to play down any fissures with the Emirates or other Persian Gulf partners, divisions that have raised questions about how reliable those nations would be in the event of a war between the United States and Iran.
"We're working very closely with the UAE to try to convince Iran that the only solution is a political solution," John Rakolta, a business executive from Detroit who is the new U.S. ambassador to the United Arab Emirates, told The Associated Press this month.
Some critics of the administration say that allowing the attacks on the Saudi oil facilities and the oil tankers to go unchallenged by the U.S. military and its allies will embolden strikes by Iran.
Administration officials point to the recent protests in Iran over gasoline price increases as evidence that the economic pressure is working and that Washington's restraint in response to the attacks is justified.
McKenzie said that the reinforcements sent to the Persian Gulf region -- including more than 3,000 troops to Saudi Arabia -- were intended to send a strong deterrent signal to Iran but not to provoke Iranian military action.
In the latest projection of force, the aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln passed through the Strait of Hormuz last week, the first time a Navy carrier had traversed the Persian Gulf since April. Navy officials have noted that the Lincoln has been at sea for months in the Gulf of Oman without regular port calls for the crew, a potential morale issue that is due to be remedied soon.
"There wasn't any particular strategic necessity on the timing," McKenzie said. "It is important to demonstrate that we can do it when we want to."
A Section on 11/24/2019