Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon is keeping up pressure on the U.K. government for another independence referendum, yet she also faces the task of keeping her party patiently united behind her approach.
As the Scottish National Party holds its annual conference this weekend, the 50-year-old leader's position could hardly look stronger: There's now clear majority support for breaking away from the rest of the U.K. and the party has a seemingly unassailable lead in the polls before the Scottish parliamentary election in May. Her handling of the coronavirus pandemic compared with U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson, meanwhile, boosted her popularity.
The dilemma for Sturgeon is that, under the current constitutional arrangements, it's London rather than her administration in Edinburgh that has the power to call an independence vote, and Johnson has refused. Some in the National Party have said Scotland doesn't need approval for a legal vote and are pressuring Sturgeon to push ahead regardless.
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Sturgeon said in interviews this week she wants a second referendum "in the earlier part of the next parliament," but declined to give a specific date. Some in her party are pushing for an earlier vote, including Ian Blackford, the party's leader in the U.K. Parliament who said Scotland should hold one next year.
"Let us demonstrate -- with cool heads and with patient persuasion -- that Scotland is ready to take its place in the global family of independent nations," Sturgeon will say in opening remarks to the conference, according to advance excerpts of her speech.
While British politics has been dominated by Brexit, covid-19 and an economic meltdown, how to deal with the question of Scotland's future is growing increasingly urgent. Officials in Johnson's Conservative Party are war gaming how to counter the National Party's demands, and his government has been trying to play up financial and political commitments to Scotland.
A key theme of the Scottish National Party conference, which Sturgeon is scheduled to address again Monday, is how to keep momentum behind their cause at such a critical time for the U.K. The problem for Johnson is that he has helped strengthen the National Party's hand, said John Curtice, the U.K.'s most prominent election analyst.
Scotland voted against leaving the European Union, and protracted talks on a post-Brexit trade deal have fueled support for the nation of 5.5 million to call time on the three-centuries-old union with England and Wales. Leaked comments from Johnson this month calling the transfer of power to Scotland "a disaster" only helped the nationalist narrative. Under that devolution process, Scotland has power over transportation, education, health and some finance.
"Johnson has played an absolutely essential role in stimulating support for independence in Scotland," said Curtice, professor of politics at the University of Strathclyde in Glasgow.