Bolstered by a conservative voting record and strong financial support, U.S. Rep. French Hill will be the favorite in a Republican primary rematch with challenger Conrad Reynolds over Arkansas' 2nd Congressional District, political observers say.
Absent from Hill's reelection campaign so far is an endorsement from former President Donald Trump, who handily won Arkansas in the 2020 presidential election. State political observers say Hill could face a more contentious primary season if the former president comes out with an endorsement for Reynolds. There are signs that Reynolds is aiming to tap into the Trump political brand as well.
Reynolds lost to Hill back in 2014 when they faced off in the Republican primary for the Central Arkansas seat. Hill routed Reynolds by more than 30% in a three-way primary.
Hill, who won by more than 10 percentage points in the 2020 general election, is a four-term incumbent with a seven-figure campaign war chest.
If Trump jumps in with an endorsement for Reynolds, it could pull Hill farther to the right and split the Republican Party in the state's 2nd Congressional District, said Heather Yates, an associate professor of political science at the University of Central Arkansas.
"We will see the fissures that have been playing out in federal politics in Washington, D.C.," she said. "I think we will see those cracks in the foundation in the 2nd Congressional District."
In his campaign rollout, Reynolds criticized Hill and aimed to tie his opponent to Republicans who have been vocal Trump critics, such as U.S. Rep. Liz Cheney of Wyoming and U.S. Sen. Mitt Romney of Utah.
But Yates pointed to Hill's voting record in Congress and said the incumbent is not the anti-Trump Republican that Reynolds is trying to paint him as.
A Trump endorsement would likely give Reynolds a few points and a publicity bounce, said Janine Parry, a professor of political science at University of Arkansas, Fayetteville and director of the Arkansas Poll. But she raised doubts that it would be enough to help the challenger defeat Hill in a Republican primary.
"I don't think Hill's especially vulnerable," she said.
Hill's voting record is something that Trump Republicans and non-Trump Republicans would be comfortable with, she said. Plus, Hill is a well-funded incumbent and has a strong advantage in the district, she said.
"It's not like it was close the last time he ran," she said of Reynolds.
The latest federal campaign filings show Hill's campaign with about $1.28 million in cash on hand.
Hal Bass, professor emeritus of political science at Ouachita Baptist University, said a Trump endorsement would give the Reynolds campaign a boost, but it's not likely to put him in a commanding position in the primary.
Hill is a Trump supporter, he said, and has name recognition.
Reynolds appears to be aligning himself with Trump rhetoric and has said he would not have voted to certify the election of President Joe Biden, even though claims of widespread voter fraud have been roundly debunked.
Hill is one of 35 House Republicans who voted to support the establishment of a commission on the deadly Jan. 6 insurrection at the U.S. Capitol. In an anti-democratic act, rioters supporting Trump fought their way into the U.S. Capitol in an attempt to overturn the count that formalized Biden's win.
That commission legislation ultimately did not pass in the Senate because of Republican opposition, according to The Associated Press.
Earlier this year, Trump issued a statement criticizing the House Republicans who backed the measure, saying "35 wayward Republicans -- they just can't help themselves."
"Sometimes there are consequences to being ineffective and weak. The voters understand!" he said in the statement.
Hill says he would accept an endorsement from Trump but has not approached the former president about it because he's wrapping up this year in Congress.
In an interview Friday, Hill highlighted his collaboration with Trump and said he worked with the former president on religious freedom issues and tax reform.
Hill said he worked intimately with Trump and then-Vice President Mike Pence on trying to reach an agreement on how to repeal and replace The Affordable Care Act, which included meetings in the Oval Office.
"I voted for President Trump twice against the failed political hack jobs by [Rep. Adam] Schiff and the Democrats to try to impeach the president inappropriately and ineffectively," Hill said, calling them "fake impeachments." Schiff, a Democrat from California, was the lead impeachment manager in 2020.
"I think the economy, our foreign policy and a lot of major aspects of our nation we're better with his leadership," Hill said of Trump.
As for Reynolds, Hill said he's waiting to see if the challenger even goes forward and files to run.
"I don't even know if Conrad Reynolds is going to pay the filing fee and be a candidate," he said.
Will Huff, Reynolds' campaign manager, said Hill's comments are an attempt to minimize their campaign. Huff said the campaign has "far exceeded" their fundraising goals in their first days of raising money, but he declined to provide any specific figures.