In this episode of The Recruiting Guy, Richard Davenport weighs the pros and cons of high school basketball players signing with pro league Overtime Elite. He also gives his expectations for the Arkansas-Rice game and reviews the latest ESPN prospect rankings.
Welcome to The Recruiting Guy podcast, this is Richard Davenport of the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette, wholehogsports.com. This week's edition is going to be a probably a shorter version than what we've had the last couple of times, but it just goes over some of the, I guess, top stories this week in recruiting and just also kind of preview a little bit of the Arkansas-Rice game. And then, I do have somebody lined up for the next podcast I think that a lot of people are gonna really enjoy. He's a well-known person, but I think the subject is going to be pretty interesting, so.
But anyway, probably the biggest news this week was former Little Rock Central guard Bryson Warren deciding to turn pro and sign with Overtime Elite professional league. It's a new league that will start I guess in the fall. I'm still learning about the league myself and I think a lot of people are being educated about it because of what happened yesterday when it was announced that Bryson signed with Overtime Elite. So, he would have been going into his junior year at Link Prep Academy in Branson he played last year at Little Rock Central.
But you know, we'll kind of do the pros and cons of this decision. We're obviously going, we're seeing new territory, new things in sports, especially amateur sports, right now. And, I think, for some people it's very uncomfortable and for some it's a welcome addition. And with you know, with Bryson being, like I said, would have been going into his junior year, going pro he's gonna be obviously going to be able to make some money. The league minimum is $100,000 which is, you know, obviously quite a bit of money for a 16- 17- 18-year-old young man. Evidently he's the 20th kid that they've signed for the new league. They plan to sign 24 and have three different teams. They'll compete against some prep schools, some academies and some international teams. The backing I, another thing that you realize when you do a little bit of background on Overtime Elite, the backing financial backing is very impressive. Some well-known NBA players and businesspeople have invested. Obviously, they're gonna want to return in time. How they get that return, I guess we'll see how the business model works in the future.
But let's talk about the pros for Bryson and number one let's also hit on this: A lot of people think, “OK, he's bypassing high school,” as far as, you know, traditional high school, to play basketball. “He's bypassing college,” because once he signs the contract he's ineligible to go to college in the future. But, Overtime Elite, will give the players — and there's several players in his class that have signed with Overtime Elite — will offer online classes and tutoring for the players to graduate from high school and also include life skills, which includes financial, financial advice, social media, media training, mental health and wellness and several other things. So a lot of people think he's automatically, he's just skipping high school and not getting an education. No, he's going to get an education. Not the traditional education of going to a school and interacting with kids his age. He'll obviously interact with guys his age, but it won't be in a school setting. So that's obviously a little different.
The pros, he's going to be making $100,000 minimum and plus they're going to be able to make money off their name, image and likeness as far as jerseys and other ways of making money. So how much money will he make? We don't know. We don't know. I mean, from what I understand, at least, it was reported that Kel'el Ware from North Little Rock was offered a two year contract worth $900,000 by Overtime. So you know, a minimum 100,000, so, we'll find out. The numbers may leak out in the future.
But the other pros. I mean, he's going to be exposed to evidently some very knowledgeable basketball mentors, coaches. So it's not gonna be like he's not gonna have any quality coaching. The financial backing is so impressive that, what they have to offer, talking about Overtime, that they're gonna they're gonna do this right. And I'm sure there's a lot of things that we don't know that is part of the process that was sold to Bryson and his parents. And everybody, I promise you Bryson's family was very educated about this before making the decision. Some parents would disagree with this. Some parents agree with this. I have had somebody tweet to me yesterday, "will this be a trend?" I tend to think so, but at the same time, he — Bryson and other guys that are going to be part of the league this year — all eyes are going to be on how they develop and how they progress. Do they make it to the next level? What's their income? Things of that nature. There's going to be some winners and losers out of this. There's going to be some guys that sign and don't make it to the NBA. Obviously, that's the end game for all these guys. They want to get to the NBA. But there's going to be some successes, too. So I think a lot of parents going forward, some future parents thinking about this — and kids — they're going to have to look at the, you know, the track record of Overtime Elite and see how these guys are successful, and how they're not successful. And time will tell, there.
One of the things that I think that's a plus for Bryson: The competition is going to be on a different level. Obviously, he was going to a well-known prep school, but the competition that he's going to be facing in this league is going to be elite. I mean, big time elite. You're talking about some of the top prospects in the nation, the '23 class and some international players, some of the world's best international players. So the competition is going to be great. The coaching is going to be very good. It seems like if you look at the Overtime Elite website, they've got everything covered. So I don't think there's really anything that looks like a red flag that is just an obvious issue for kids and parents thinking about this option.
But what are the cons? And you saw some of the cons on Twitter. Some saying "he's gonna miss two of the best years of his life" as far as going to high school, interacting with some of his classmates, his teammates. Now he's going straight into a professional type setting. And if you don't produce, obviously it's gonna be a rude awakening. But at the same time, it's good training for him, because he's gonna be advanced because he's going to be in a professional setting. He's going to know how professional basketball is ran and what's expected. And those expectations, you have to meet them on the next level or you're not going to be on a team, you're not going to make the cut, you're not going to have a long career. You have to be professional in every way. Off the court. On the court. Your play is going to have to be top notch. But again, some of the cons of some of the people that are anti this would say he's going to miss two of the best years of his life. Some would say that's too much pressure for a young man at his age. I will say Bryson is a very mature young man. How he handles this, only time will tell. I tend to think that he'll do well. I think he's had good training at home, and I think he's so focused on what he wants to do, you know, basketball-wise. And ultimately, the end game, the goal is the NBA, and there's no doubt that he will be focused on that. I think. I mean only time to tell. But that's just a few thoughts on Bryson and going pro. And I think, again, you're going to have a lot of people look at what he and the other guys that have signed, how they progress over the next few years. And that will determine, you know, how other parents and prospects coming up will, you know, look at the league and the option of maybe going pro early. But it's obviously a different world.
One last thing, this name, image and likeness for college athletes could not have come at a better time because of the professional league. A lot of these guys, some of these guys might have been able to go to college and make as much or more off their name, image and likeness. Because we've seen a couple of guys — the Ohio State freshman quarterback supposedly pulling in about a million dollars or at least endorsements worth about a million dollars. And then, the Alabama freshman quarterback supposedly going to be pulling in about a million dollars, you know, in endorsements. So some people were thinking this is, you know, this is the end for top prospects — top 10, top 15, top 20 guys — maybe going to college. I'm not so sure about that, because I think the name, image and likeness kind of evens things out for the college basketball programs.
Let's also kind of hit on the ESPN rankings which were updated earlier this week. Nick Smith was elevated from the No. 35 prospect in the nation to No. 6. He was a four-star. Now he's a five-star No. 6 overall in the nation. That was a huge jump. And you expected to jump but not so sure I was expecting that big of a jump. According to ESPN, if you look at his ranking, he's the highest ranked in-state prospect that Arkansas has ever produced. According to ESPN rankings, the next, previous highest, was Bobby Portis in 2013 at No. 16. Nick came out earlier this week and said that he would not be going pro so he will go the college route. He's going to be making an official visit to Kentucky this weekend and Arkansas the following weekend for the Texas football weekend. So, you know that was huge news and you got to be happy for Nick. You get in the top 10 of the rankings, that is truly, truly elite. I mean, he was pretty elite even at 35. But you get in the top 10, that's a different level.
Razorback target and ESPN five-star Jordan Walsh from Southern California Academy. He played at Oak Cliff Faith Family Academy as a junior, but he's attending Southern California Academy his senior year. He officially visited Arkansas, TCU and Oklahoma in June. He'll be visiting Arizona, Texas and Kansas this month. But he jumped from No. 10 to No. 7. So, good news for Jordan. He made a huge jump in the previous updated rankings and went from a four-star to a five-star. The three Arkansas basketball commitments are top 100 prospects according to Paul Biancardi and ESPN. Derrian Ford comes in at No. 69, he was at No. 58 in the previous rankings. Small forward Barry Dunning for Mobile, Alabama was No. 70, he's No. 77. Morrilton guard Joseph Pinion wasn't ranked in the top 100, now he's No. 95. So that's impressive. Good news, and congratulations to Joseph Pinion.
Let's go over tomorrow's game with Arkansas and Rice expectations. I think if you're a fan, what do you want to see? I think for the most part you want to see a team that, you know, dominates fairly well against Rice, even though Rice is a pretty decent squad. But still if you're an SEC team, you should be able to handle Rice by two, three touchdowns at least, you would think. You want to see a much-improved defense. That is a must for Arkansas to be able to keep climbing the ladder in the SEC. Everything I've heard from fall camp, this defensive line from people that I respect, say this defensive line is much, much improved. Could it be a middle, middle tier type defensive line? Based on some of the conversations I've had with people, I say yes. But we'll find out. We'll find out over the next few weeks. In order for you to have that type of feeling after the Rice game, you'd like to see them dominate the line of scrimmage, limit them in the rushing game, get some pressure on the quarterback, get a few sacks. Because obviously going into the SEC and even next week against Texas, the competition is going to be elevated. So you want to be able to see some promise if you're an Arkansas Razorback fan about the defense being able to hold their own and dominate a team that they should, in a normal year, dominate and be able to, to kind of set the tone and give the offense opportunities.
Offensively, you want to see at least 30 points. I've said I think Arkansas can win six, seven games and that's only, only if they get a good quarterback play. KJ Jefferson has to complete 60% of his passes or more. He has to elevate his completion rate for Arkansas to be able to have a pretty good season and go to a bowl game. I think they're capable of that because I think the offensive line is going to be obviously improved because you're returning so many guys in a year of maturity there. I think Ricky Stromberg is set up to have a great season at center. Running backs, you got Trelon Smith, who was obviously SEC quality last year, you want to see that. But what do you have behind him? Rocket Sanders is the number two running back for Arkansas. Let's see what he does. Does he give you somewhat of a home run threat that maybe Trelon — Trelon's obviously, very, very productive, but not so sure he's a guy that's going to go 80 yards for you on a, I'm not going to say regular basis, but I'm not so sure you can go 80 yards very often. And if you're Arkansas, you need a running back or you need a receiver that's capable of giving you some big plays.
I call them cheap touchdowns because if you go 70, 80, 60 yards, what have you, and score in one or two plays in a series, that just makes things so much easier for the offense. You don't have to have so many sustained drives, especially against the stiffer competition that you're going to have in the SEC. I think a minimum of 30 points, like I said earlier, is what Arkansas fans will want to see. If you get up around 40 I think that gives them a lot of confidence. But the key is, it's all on KJ Jefferson's shoulders. If he completes 50% or less of his passes it could be, you know, a long season. I would say five wins or less if that happens. But if he completes 60% and protects the ball, doesn't turn the ball over very often, they can win six or seven. Seven at the max.
But anyway, that's today's podcast, The Recruiting Guy podcast. Like I said earlier, the next podcast we're going to have a pretty well-known Arkansan. And we're going to hit on a subject that, like I said earlier, that I've been thinking about that I think you'll find interesting. Thanks so much for listening. We'll catch you next time.