Red Wolves struggle to keep up with AAC

TULSA -- When Texas and Oklahoma formally announced their move to the SEC nearly two months ago, everyone understood that was just the first of the dominoes to fall in this latest round of realignment.

With said movement comes the requisite chest-beating.

When the Big 12 Conference added Brigham Young along with current American Athletic Conference members Houston, Central Florida and Cincinnati, Commissioner Bob Bowlsby said his league's additions "ensures the continued success of the Big 12 at the highest levels of intercollegiate athletics competition."

AAC Commissioner Mike Aresco then touted those schools' departure as a confirmation of the AAC's status as a power conference, adding, "Our conference was targeted for exceeding expectations in a system that wasn't designed to accommodate our success."

And less than a week ago, Mountain West Commissioner Craig Thompson told the San Diego Union-Tribune, "I keep saying it like a broken record: If the 12 Mountain West institutions stay together, we're the sixth-best conference."

At this point, every league outside of the SEC remains a threat to the others -- the Sun Belt Conference included.

The Sun Belt isn't shying away from public statements of its own. Commissioner Keith Gill called his league the best non-autonomy FBS conference in a statement earlier this month, noting that the league is open to adding new members.

But Gill doesn't plan to expand simply for the sake of it.

"I don't think we should add people just to add people," Gill told the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette. "Ten is not a bad number of football-playing schools, particularly when we have the mix that we have. ... That being said, if there are institutions that we think can add value, it would make a lot of sense to evaluate those institutions and see if there's a good fit in the Sun Belt."

By no means is today's game between Arkansas State and Tulsa, a member of the AAC, a referendum on the two leagues. But a Red Wolves' win would put the Sun Belt in position to come away from the 2021 season with a winning record against their Group of 5 foes for the first time since the AAC's founding in 2013.

It's been utter domination by the AAC these past nine years -- the league has come away with victories against Sun Belt sides in 19 of 24 games, highlighted by a perfect 8-0 mark from Memphis. ASU is the only Sun Belt member with multiple wins against the American, beating UCF in the 2016 Cure Bowl and the Golden Hurricane in 2018.

Even if you remove the three AAC sides headed to the Big 12, the remaining eight members would still hold a 17-4 record.

Gill said football in the Sun Belt has never been better, and it would be difficult to argue against him. The Sun Belt had two teams in the preseason Associated Press Top 25 in Coastal Carolina and Louisiana-Lafayette. The AAC had only Cincinnati, which remains a top-10 team, while the Ragin' Cajuns have since dropped out and the Chanticleers sit at No. 17.

Although Gill would prefer not to compare his league to others, one can't help but see how they stack up.

"You're aware of your colleagues and know that they're certainly doing a great job," Gill said when asked about the American. "But we feel like if we're doing things to our expectations, then we will be in a good spot when it's all said and done."

Both leagues are trying to court new members. The Athletic reported earlier this week that the AAC is targeting Boise State, San Diego State, Colorado State and Air Force as well as Alabama-Birmingham.

Multiple outlets have noted that the University of Arkansas-Little Rock and Texas-Arlington could soon leave the Sun Belt -- Gill wouldn't address the reports when asked by a Democrat-Gazette reporter, saying that both schools are "proud members of the Sun Belt ... and I look forward to working with them in the future."

If those departures happened, the Sun Belt would likely look to add, perhaps poaching from Conference USA -- strong football programs in UNC-Charlotte and Southern Mississippi plus former Sun Belt members like North Texas and Florida Atlantic.

One season, let alone one game, isn't going to shift the balance of power among the Group of 5. The American's past performance enabled the league to ink a 12-year television contract with ESPN in 2019, providing the AAC with just more than $83 million per year -- about $7 million per school.

Comparatively, the Sun Belt had a deal that gave each member institution $500,000 annually, although it extended and expanded its deal with ESPN in July, likely increasing that number.

ASU Coach Butch Jones has said he wants the Red Wolves to compete on a national stage.

But being the best among the Group of 5 would be a good start. If ASU wants to accomplish that, it'd do itself a lot of good by showing that it can handle one of the better teams outside the Power 5.