WASHINGTON -- President Joe Biden is considering deploying several thousand U.S. troops, as well as warships and aircraft, to NATO allies in the Baltics and Eastern Europe, an expansion of American military involvement amid mounting fears of a Russian incursion into Ukraine, according to administration officials.
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The move would signal a major pivot for the Biden administration, which until recently was taking a restrained stance on Ukraine, out of fear of provoking Russia into invading. But as Russian President Vladimir Putin has ramped up his threatening actions toward Ukraine, and talks between American and Russian officials have failed to discourage him, the administration is now moving away from its do-not-provoke strategy.
The State Department on Sunday ordered the families of all American personnel at the U.S. Embassy in Ukraine to leave the country amid heightened fears of a Russian invasion.
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The department told the dependents of staffers at the U.S. Embassy in Kyiv that they must leave the country. It also said nonessential embassy staffers could leave Ukraine at government expense.
The U.S. is tracking the security situation in Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital, and a U.K. warning that Russia is plotting to install a pro-Kremlin government in Ukraine is part of the Kremlin's playbook for encroaching on its neighbor, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in a round of interviews on U.S. Sunday news shows.
In a meeting Saturday at Camp David, the presidential retreat in Maryland, senior Pentagon officials presented Biden with several options that would shift American military assets much closer to Putin's doorstep, the administration officials said. The options include sending 1,000 to 5,000 troops to Eastern European countries, with the potential to increase that number tenfold if things deteriorate.
The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to talk publicly about internal deliberations.
Biden is expected to make a decision as early as this week, they said. He is weighing the buildup as Russia has escalated its menacing posture against Ukraine, including massing more than 100,000 troops and weaponry on the border, and stationing Russian forces in Belarus. On Saturday, Britain accused Moscow of developing plans to install a pro-Russian leader in Ukraine.
"Even as we're engaged in diplomacy, we are very much focused on building up defense, building up deterrence," Blinken said in an interview that aired Sunday on CBS's "Face the Nation." "NATO itself will continue to be reinforced in a significant way if Russia commits renewed acts of aggression. All of that is on the table."
TIPTOEING ENDS
So far, none of the military options being considered include deploying additional American troops to Ukraine itself, and Biden has made clear that he is loath to enter another conflict after America's painful exit from Afghanistan last summer after 20 years.
But after years of tiptoeing around the question of how much military support to provide to Ukraine, for fear of provoking Russia, Biden officials have recently warned that the United States could throw its weight behind a Ukrainian insurgency should Putin invade Ukraine.
And the deployment of thousands of additional American troops to NATO's eastern flank, which includes Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, Biden administration officials said, is exactly the scenario that Putin has wanted to avoid, as he has seen the western military alliance creep closer and closer to Russia's border.
In his news conference last week, Biden said he had cautioned Putin that a Russian invasion of Ukraine would prompt Washington to send more troops to the region.
"We're going to actually increase troop presence in Poland, in Romania, etc., if in fact he moves," Biden said. "They are part of NATO."
During a phone call this month, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin warned his Russian counterpart, Sergei Shoigu, that a Russian incursion into Ukraine would most likely result in the exact troop buildup that Biden is now considering.
At the time of the phone call -- Jan. 6 -- the Biden administration was still being more restrained in its stance on Ukraine. But after unsuccessful talks Friday between Blinken and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, the administration is looking at a more muscular posture, including not only diplomatic options such as sanctions, but military options such as increasing military support to Ukrainian forces and deploying American troops to the region.
"This is clearly in response to the sudden stationing of Russian forces in Belarus, on the border, essentially, with NATO," said Evelyn Farkas, the top Pentagon official for Russia and Ukraine during the Obama administration. "There is no way that NATO could not reply to such a sudden military move in this political context. The Kremlin needs to understand that they are only escalating the situation with all of these deployments and increasing the danger to all parties, including themselves."
Another former top Pentagon official for Russia policy, Jim Townsend, said the administration's proposal did not go far enough.
"It's too little too late to deter Putin," Townsend said in an email. "If the Russians do invade Ukraine in a few weeks, those 5,000 should be just a down payment for a much larger U.S. and allied force presence. Western Europe should once again be an armed camp."
During the meeting at Camp David, Austin and Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, appeared by video from the Pentagon and from Milley's quarters, where he has been quarantining since he tested positive for the coronavirus.
Officials said if Biden approved the deployment, some of the troops would come from the United States, while others would move from other parts of Europe to the more vulnerable countries on NATO's eastern flank.
American officials did not describe in detail the ground troop reinforcements under review, but current and former commanders said they should include more air defense, engineering, logistics and artillery forces.
Rep. Michael McCaul, R-Texas, the top GOP member on the Foreign Affairs Committee, said Sunday that the United States also needed to conduct more training in those NATO nations.
"We need joint exercises in Poland, the Baltic States, Romania, Bulgaria, to show Putin that we're serious," McCaul said on "Face the Nation." "Right now, he doesn't see we're serious."
According to Poland's defense ministry, there are currently about 4,000 U.S. troops and 1,000 other NATO troops stationed in Poland. There are also about 4,000 NATO troops in the Baltic States.
The United States has been regularly flying Air Force RC-135 Rivet Joint electronic-eavesdropping planes over Ukraine since late December. The planes allow American intelligence operatives to listen to Russian ground commanders' communications. The Air Force is also flying E-8 JSTARS ground-surveillance planes to track the Russian troop buildup and the movements of the forces.
The Biden administration is especially interested in any indication that Russia may deploy tactical nuclear weapons to the border, a move that Russian officials have suggested could be an option.
More than 150 U.S. military advisers are in Ukraine, trainers who have for years worked out of the training ground near Lviv, in the country's west, far from the front lines. The current group includes Special Operations forces, mostly Army Green Berets, as well as National Guard trainers from Florida's 53rd Infantry Brigade Combat Team.
Military advisers from about a dozen allied countries are also in Ukraine, U.S. officials said. Several NATO countries, including Britain, Canada, Lithuania and Poland, have regularly sent training forces to the country.
IN CASE OF INVASION
In the event of a full-scale Russian invasion, the United States intends to move its military trainers out of the country quickly. But it is possible that some Americans could stay to advise Ukrainian officials in Kyiv, the capital, or provide front-line support, a U.S. official said.
State Department officials stressed that the Kyiv embassy will remain open and that the announcement does not constitute an evacuation. The move had been under consideration for some time and does not reflect an easing of U.S. support for Ukraine, the officials said.
In a statement, the State Department noted recent reports that Russia was planning significant military action against Ukraine. However, the Russian Foreign Ministry has accused NATO countries of escalating tensions around Ukraine with disinformation.
The State Department added: "The security conditions, particularly along Ukraine's borders, in Russia-occupied Crimea, and in Russia-controlled eastern Ukraine, are unpredictable and can deteriorate with little notice. Demonstrations, which have turned violent at times, regularly occur throughout Ukraine, including in Kyiv."
The department's travel advisory, which had warned against traveling to Ukraine because of covid-19 as well as the tensions over Russia, was changed Sunday to carry a stronger warning.
"Do not travel to Ukraine due to the increased threats of Russian military action and covid-19. Exercise increased caution in Ukraine due to crime and civil unrest. Some areas have increased risk," the department advised.
The travel advisory for Russia was also changed: "Do not travel to Russia due to ongoing tension along the border with Ukraine, the potential for harassment against U.S. citizens, the embassy's limited ability to assist U.S. citizens in Russia, covid-19 and related entry restrictions, terrorism, harassment by Russian government security officials, and the arbitrary enforcement of local law."
The State Department would not say how many Americans it believes are currently in Ukraine. U.S. citizens are not required to register with embassies when they arrive or plan to stay abroad for extended periods.
INCONCLUSIVE TALKS
Blinken andLavrov held inconclusive talks in Geneva last week that failed to resolve the standoff over Ukraine. Blinken earlier visited his Ukrainian counterpart in Kyiv and held talks in Berlin with United Kingdom, German and French allies.
The U.S. this week plans to present written responses to Russia addressing its concerns.
"The purpose of those sanctions is to deter Russian aggression and so if they're triggered now, you lose the deterrent effect," he said on CNN's "State of the Union."
As part of deterrence, the Biden administration has provided more defensive military aid to Ukraine last year than in any previous year, Blinken said. Almost 200,000 pounds of aid, including "ammunition for the front line defenders of Ukraine," arrived Friday, according to the U.S. Embassy in Kyiv.
The Foreign Ministry in Moscow on Sunday dismissed the U.K.'s allegation of a Russian plan to install a friendly regime in Ukraine as "nonsense."
"We have rallied allies and partners around the world," Blinken said on NBC. "We are preparing massive consequences for Russia if it invades Ukraine again."
Some U.S. lawmakers joined Ukraine in calling for a sharper response now.
Sen. Chris Coons, D-Del., argued for a bipartisan bill that would "apply some sanctions now."
"But the very strongest sanctions, the sorts of sanctions that we used to bring Iran to the table, is something that we should hold out as a deterrent to prevent Putin from taking the last step of invading Ukraine," Coons said on "This Week."
Sen. Joni Ernst, R-Iowa, said Biden's administration has pursued "a doctrine of appeasement" against Russia.
"So let's make sure that we are pushing back right now, with stiff sanctions, making sure that we are showing Putin we do mean business," she said.
Information for this article was contributed by Helene Cooper and Eric Schmitt of The New York Times; by Matthew Lee of The Associated Press; and by Tony Czuczka of Bloomberg News (TNS).