Forecasters are predicting rain and a chance for storms across western portions of Arkansas on Monday, the National Weather Service said.
“The rainfall will be most significant in Northwest Arkansas,” said Dan Koch, a meteorologist with the weather service in North Little Rock.
There is a slight risk of storms in southwest Arkansas, mostly near Texas, Koch said.
Much of the remaining state is at a marginal risk for storms for Monday afternoon and late into the evening, the meteorologist said.
“We are looking mostly at damaging winds from the storms,” Koch said. “In southwest parts of the state there is a chance for larger hail.”
He added that the risk of any tornadoes on Monday or Tuesday was very low.
Northwest parts of the state could see over 3 inches of rain on Monday, the weather service said on Twitter, while Central Arkansas near Little Rock will likely see just under an inch.
“Most folks will welcome the rain,” Koch said. “It’s been really dry and I think we all want to catch up to the rainfall.”
Based on a 30-year average, the rainfall for cities like Little Rock, Harrison and Pine Bluff are around 4 inches under what is expected for the last two months, Koch said.
“We take this data, knowing that sometimes in October it is a little skewed due to hurricane weather that comes up, and know that these are some of our wetter months. We are in around or over a four inch deficit of rainfall in several cities,” Koch said. “I expect folks will be happy to start making that up.”
Due to the dryness most of the state is experiencing, there is a risk of flooding with excessive rainfall, the weather service said.
“Some of the vegetation is dying this time of year and the plants aren’t as active,” Koch said. “And the ground is so dry and hard that it can act like pavement, where rain just runs off it.”
The dryness in the state does not only increase the risk of flooding but it makes the risk of wildfire increase, according to a map from the Arkansas Department of Agriculture.
The southern portion of the state is labeled as at an extreme risk of wildfire, while the rest of Arkansas is just below it, at a high risk, on the map.
Another map from the department shows that only eight counties were not under a burn ban Monday morning.
More rain is forecast for the state starting Thursday and staying until Friday night, Koch said.
“Good news, it seems we’ve gotten out of the cycle for now where we have some rain and then it is completely dry for a period, there is a chance of more rain later this week,” the meteorologist said.