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Knicks vs. Heat, Warriors vs. Lakers Picks, Best Bets and Odds for Game 6

by Kyle Wood/ May 12, 2023 at 9:34 a.m.

The Knicks and Warriors both staved off elimination at home Wednesday night and now they must try to do so again, this time on the road. The Heat and Lakers both hold 3–2 series leads in their respective second-round series with one win standing between them and a trip to the conference finals.

Los Angeles is a narrow favorite at home against Golden State and Miami is also favored on its home floor against New York.

Below are a handful of betting trends, picks and a question for Fridays playoff doubleheader. Knicks-Heat gets underway at 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN and Warriors-Lakers begins at 10.

New York Knicks vs. Miami Heat Game 6 Predictions

Heat Stay Perfect at Home: Bet Miami -6
The Heat have been a bad team to bet against in the playoffs. Theyre 8–2 against the spread even though theyve been installed as a favorite just twice during this run. Friday nights Game 6 against the Knicks will be the third time, as Miami is a 6-point favorite. As the No. 8 seed, the Heat have played just four games at home compared with six on the road, but they are undefeated in front of their fans and perfect against the spread so far. New York was one of the few teams that finished with a better record on the road (24–17) than at home (23–18) in the regular season. However, it has lost its last three in South Florida dating back to March and the Heat covered each game.

Jimmy Butler Returns to Form: Bet Butler Over 28.5 Points
Butlers 19 points in a Game 5 loss was by far his lowest output in the postseason. After averaging a hair under 38 points per game in Round 1 against the Bucks, his scoring average in the second round has dipped to 24.8, which is still a few points north of his regular-season mark. Butlers over/under for points is set at 28.5, the highest of any player in the game. He went over that figure four times in the Bucks series but has yet to do so against the Knicks. Butlers recent record in closeout games is worth mentioning: He went for 42 to send Milwaukee home, 35 in a Game 7 loss to Boston last year and 32 to send the 76ers packing in the round prior.

Gary A. Vasquez/USA TODAY Sports

Golden State Warriors vs. Los Angeles Lakers Game 6 Predictions

LeBron James Goes Off in Closeout Game: Bet James Over 26.5 Points
James has had some good games against his four-time Finals foe so far in this series, but hes yet to have a signature performance. He could be due for one in Game 6 with the opportunity to eliminate the Warriors before a potential winner-take-all Game 7 in San Francisco this weekend. James averages 28.3 points per game in 53 career closeout games. That includes the 25 he scored in Game 5, which L.A. lost by 15. Anthony Davis is expected to be available, but he left the previous game early, so James could have more on his plate from a scoring perspective. Hes shot the three ball better as of late and gotten to the free throw line more often, both good signs for him to hit the over on his 26.5-point total.

Will there be a Game 6 Klay Thompson Appearance?
Thompsons Game 6 shooting has become a thing of legend. Though his last two outings in that setting have been underwhelming (22 points on 8-20 shooting in the Kings series and 12 in the Finals against the Celtics last season), hes turned it up in the past for some big performances. The most notable is his 41-point showing against the Thunder in 2016 and hes lit up plenty of other opponents in Game 6s over the years. Thompson has combined for just 19 points on 6-23 shooting in the last two games, but his point total is set at 21.5 and his over/under on three-pointers is 4.5 for Fridays game.

NBA Playoffs Betting Record: 15–15

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