The winner's mile-and-sixteenth time broke no stop watches, but the moral of the 66th Rebel Stakes on Saturday amounts to a subjective analysis.
Timberlake is back and Elliott Walden is going back to the Kentucky Derby.
Trainer of 1998 Arkansas Derby and Belmont Stakes winner Victory Gallop, the Kentuckian returned to Arkansas as CEO and racing manager for Kenny Troutt's WinStar Farm. A two-length win in the Rebel at Oaklawn Racing Casino Resort sent him home happy with the Into Mischief colt punctual late for the bulk of the $1.25 million purse.
The richest February race ever in Arkansas, the Grade 2 $1.25 million Rebel went off in chamber-of-commerce weather with a fast track and temperature in the 60s. Brad Cox sent out the winner, co-owned by Siena Farm, after taking the $300,000 Smarty Jones Jan. 1 with Catching Freedom for Albaugh Family Stables.
Cox seeks to become the first trainer with a natural hat trick in the Arkansas Derby on March 30, winning the Grade 1 $1.5 million race with Cyberknife in 2022 and Albaugh-owned Angel of Empire last year. Third in the 2023 Kentucky Derby with the Smarty Jones runner-up, Cox has options for Derby 150 on May 4 at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Ky., the 43-year-old trainer's hometown.
Timberlake, the field's only Grade 1 winner, kept his Champagne Stakes-winning form of last fall in his first start since fourth to juvenile champion Fierceness in the Breeders' Cup in November. He ran ninth in the Grade 1 Hopeful at Saratoga after a tardy beginning, seen as the colt's only apparent flaw.
The 1:44 final time may not turn heads, but Walden knows that winning Derby preps here requires more than tossing one's hat in the ring. This one went off with 12 horses after Time the Truth's race-day scratch by owner Ron Moquett.
Cox's belief that he conditions a "big-time horse" was justified when Timberlake came off the final turn after the type of winning move from outside that often decides the race. Unlike the last two Rebel winners, huge longshots, Timberlake rewarded chalk players with returns of $3.60, $3 and $2.40.
"He did a lot of things right," Christina Blacker said upstairs on the FanDuel TV feed from Oaklawn, where an estimated 46,000 watched. Winning around two turns for the first time, Caleb Keller echoed: "This horse is not going to tire going long."
"We're super excited," said Walden with a smile en route to the winner's circle. The superfecta was a relatively light $255.13 considering the next three horses went off at odds of 27-1, 15-1 and 44-1.
Ken McPeek took the second and third spots with Common Defense and Northern Flame. Grade 3 Southwest winner Mystik Dan is his ace in the hole for the Arkansas Derby and Kentucky Derby, neither of which the Fort Chaffee-born trainer has won.
Woodcourt, close early under Emmanuel Esquivel, placed fourth for Cippy Contreras. Fifth-place runner Dimatic, one of Steve Asmussen's three Rebel starters, earned Derby qualifying points. The Arkansas Derby, at nine furlongs, is worth 100 to the winner.
Carbone, surprising Southwest favorite, tired after leading in 1:37.91 for three quarters and ran sixth under Isaac Castillo (Tyler Gaffalione rode Dimatic, a fourth last-out meet winner in the race, while Keith Asmussen, the trainer's son, finished ninth on Lyganos for his father.)
Just Steel, second in two Oaklawn stakes, ran seventh on an otherwise sun-kissed day for trainer Wayne Lukas, who won the Grade 3 Honeybee (maiden filly Lemon Muffin) and one other on the 12-race card of hundred-grand events.