Based on the waterfowl survey that the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service released last week, we can expect another liberal duck season this year.
Luke Naylor, the Arkansas Game and Fish Commission's waterfowl biologist, will present season dates and frameworks to the commission July 16. The commission will vote on the late waterfowl hunting season dates in August. Predicting the season framework a month ahead can be risky, but duck numbers remain high compared to last year, and compared to 50-year averages.
The bad news is that dry conditions in the Canadian prairies contributed to a significantly smaller number of breeding ponds in May. Researchers counted about 6.31 million ponds in Canada and in the prairie pothole region of the United States. Last year there were about 7.19 million ponds. This year's number is a 12 percent reduction, but it is still 21 percent above the long-term average.
Naylor said waterfowl numbers fluctuate with precipitation levels. Duck hunters need not be concerned about short-term fluctuations, he said, but extended drought combined with diminished habitat could be problematic.
"We were talking about [the] same thing a few years ago when we had slight habitat drop for a couple of years," Naylor said, "but we haven't had a decline in pond numbers for three years in a row."
Those were surplus years for mallards. We'll see the crest of that wave this year, but we might see a slight drop next year if habitat conditions continue to deteriorate.
The waterfowl survey is part of a Trends in Duck Breeding Population report. The USFWS, the Canadian Wildlife Service and state wildlife management agency biologist conduct the surveys in May and early June.
Overall duck numbers in the survey area are statistically similar to last year. The total number of breeding ducks in the survey area were estimated to be 49.5 million, according to the report's preamble. This estimate represents an 1 percent increase from last year's estimate of 49.2 million birds, and is 43 percent higher than the 1955-2014 long-term average.
The number of mallards is estimated at 11.643 million, a 7 percent increase from 10.9 million in 2014. That is 51 percent above their long-term average from 1955-2014.
Gadwalls are up 1 percent, from 3.811 million in 2014 to 3.834 million this year. They are 100 percent above their long-term average. They are fun to hunt and delicious to eat.
Green-winged teal were estimated to be 4.081 million strong, a 19 percent increase from 3.44 million in 2014. They are 98 percent above their long-term average.
Canvasbacks are estimated to be about three-quarters of a million strong. That's an 11 percent boost from 685,000 in 2014, and they are 30 percent above their long-term average.
Numbers are not strong across the board, however. Northern shoveler numbers are down 17 percent, from about 5.28 million in 2014 to about 4.39 million this year. They are still 75 percent above their long-term average.
Redheads are down 6 percent, from about 1.28 million in 2014 to about 1.2 million this year, but they are still 71 percent above their long-term average.
Northern pintails continue to struggle. They are estimated to be 3.043 million strong, down from 3.22 million last year. That's a 24 percent change below the long-term average.
American wigeon numbers are estimated at 3.037 million, down 3 percent from 3.117 million in 2014. They are still 17 percent above their long-term average.
Blue-winged teal, whose numbers have surged in recent years, held about even, with a statistically insignificant increase of about 5,000 birds. They are still 73 percent higher than their long-term average.
Based on the pond count and the waterfowl survey, the USFWS will likely recommend a liberal 60-day season for 2015-16. The daily limit will probably remain four ducks, with a daily limit of four mallards.
Since teal numbers have been so high, the early teal season in September has become a major event across the state.
You mostly see blue-wings in September. They are still in their eclipse plumage so they aren't as pretty as they are later in the season. By then, though, they are in Louisiana where they sustain the bulk of their hunting pressure.
Still, some of us look as much forward to the early teal season as we do dove season.
Sports on 07/09/2015