Once upon a time, the mere suggestion that northwest Arkansas would outgrow the central beating heart of the state seemed outlandish. But diving into some of the state's 2020 census numbers reminded us of a National Geographic population projection from the late 1970s:
The northwest Arkansas of the day wasn't yet the burgeoning metro we know today. But National Geographic saw potential when projecting future U.S. population growth. And the magazine broke out the crystal ball:
By 2050, the model predicted, the northwest quadrant of Arkansas, beginning at the River Valley--basically Russellville to Fort Smith to Fayetteville to Harrison--would surpass central Arkansas in population. By a lot.
At the rate we're going, Benton and Washington counties alone may be on track to challenge that 2050 projection.
The 2020 U.S. Census laid it out plainly: explosive growth for NWA; growth, much slower but growth nonetheless, in Pulaski County; and a continued evaporation of people from rural Arkansas. The Census numbers, now a couple of years old, are striking and worth another look:
• From 2010-2020, Benton County grew by 28.5 percent to 284,333 residents. Washington County wasn't far behind with 21.1 percent growth. Its 2020 population count came in at 245,871.
• Fayetteville is now the state's second-largest city with a population of 93,949, up 27.7 percent from 73,580 in 2010.
• Bentonville saw an eye-opening 53 percent growth from 2010 to 2020, growing from 35,301 people to 54,164. Even more remarkable: the city's census-estimated 2022 count topped 66,000. The Bentonville Chamber told this newspaper last year that more than 60 percent of Bentonville residents aren't native to Arkansas. (As long as they don't start calling it soda . . . .)
• The NWA metro, meanwhile, had an estimated '21 population of 560,709. And the fast-growing University of Arkansas in Fayetteville has topped 30,000 students and continues to struggle to accommodate all the incoming freshmen. Some problems are better than others.
• Meanwhile, there's steady growth still for central Arkansas: Little Rock proper topped 200,000 at 202,591, up 4.7 percent from 2010. Pulaski County as a whole saw 4.3 percent growth, from 382,748 to 399,125. The Little Rock metro overall grew 6.9 percent, up to 748,031. As of 2020, the Little Rock TV market ranks 59th nationally (and the NWA-Fort Smith market 95th), according to MediaTracks.
• Saline County led the way in central Arkansas with 15.2 percent growth over the past decade.
• Meanwhile, rural Arkansas continued to lose people, mirroring a national trend. Fifty-three of the state's 75 counties experienced population declines, and parts of the Delta took the biggest hits. Pine Bluff's population dipped 16 percent, and Helena-West Helena's population fell 22.5 percent.
In 1980, Arkansas had just four cities with populations of more than 50,000: Little Rock, Fort Smith, North Little Rock and Pine Bluff. According to the 2020 census, the state's 10 largest cities now include nine that exceed 50K.
Counting Fort Smith, five of the state's 10 largest cities are located north by northwest. And don't sleep on Bella Vista, that little "retirement community" on a finally completed leg of I-49, now boasting a population of more than 30,000.
The state's beating heart continues to do so in central Arkansas. As Rex Nelson has pointed out on this page, Little Rock remains the political, banking, cultural and health-care center of the state, and it's important for the state that it maintain that status.
But northwest Arkansas continues to grow, and grow some more . . . . Little brother wants to arm-wrestle again, and in a few years, he may start winning.