They say this is a fight between gangsters. But on an international strategic level. The best advice in these matters: Don't get between them.
This past weekend shows what happens when professionals attempt a coup. This was no amateurish freak show featuring old men with their feet propped up on desks, and younger men wearing Viking horns. The men in last weekend's coup attempt wear drab green uniforms and, by all accounts, were/are much better trained than the draftees standing between them and Moscow.
The Wagner Group, headed by this Yevgeny Prigozhin character, is said to be battle-hardened, experienced, and well-equipped. The regular Russian troops are said to be sent into combat with little training. On one side, you have conscripts with two weeks of boot camp, and on the other, Cossacks.
The big surprise is that the Cossacks stopped before they got to Moscow.
President Vladimir Putin, by all press reports, was said to have been "visibly angry" in his national address early on Saturday. He threatened Comrade Prigozhin with dire consequences. And the next thing the world hears, Prigozhin has disappeared, reportedly to Belarus. Which seems even more bizarre. Belarus is in Vladimir Vladimirovich's camp. We heard somebody in the papers say Mr. Prigozhin had better stay away from windows and hotel rooms above the third floor.
As of this writing, the Wagner chief hasn't been heard of since he got into a car in Russia to go to "safety" in Belarus. He was being cheered on the streets at the time. Not so much in the Kremlin. A military march on Moscow has not been seen in 80 years. Wethinks Vlad won't have a sense of humor about this sort of thing.
Now word comes that the Russian foreign minister is investigating whether the West had anything to do with this coup attempt. That would be a neat trick. And something close to casus belli. Who wants to risk that with a nuclear state? Answer: Few in the Western governments.
But don't put anything past the old KGB station chief in charge of Russia today. He launched Putin's War to rid Ukraine of "Nazis." He can make up anything. And does.
Not that the West ignored the events of this weekend. The NATO secretary general said developments show the weakness and fragility of the Russian regime. Which can happen when hired mercenaries turn on you.
So what happens now?
What happened to all those soldiers in the Wagner Group? They seem to have evaporated. Are they going to Belarus, too? If they follow their general, he would seem to have a standing army in a foreign country, one on the flank of the country they used to fight in. Why would the host country allow it?
Speaking of the Wagner general, why did he suddenly stop the march on Moscow? Because he was offered exile? With all charges dropped? Does he think his former boss at the Kremlin will just forgive and forget? A former U.S. general of some note, David Petraeus, who is also a former CIA director, told CNN he thinks the old Wagner Group general lost his nerve.
After weeks of social media videos of him accusing the Russian military brass of treachery and murder, he lost his nerve at the last minute? Really?
And how weak has this made Vladimir Putin? He has a reputation of being a ruthless leader, willing to punish anybody who stands in his way. This deal says otherwise. People in Russia, and not just in Russia, will notice. Is he in trouble? And if he somehow leaves the stage, does anything better come next? Some western analysts say no.
This is surreal. And none of it is lost on Kyiv.
Some of the best fighting troops of Russia have now been removed from the battlefield. And the lightning march on Moscow hasn't put the Red Army in the best light. Somebody said the Wagner Group did more damage to the Russian air forces this past weekend than the Ukrainian army has done in a month.
What does Ukraine do now? Besides remembering the old saw: When the enemy is destroying himself, don't interfere.
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(DROP CAP) In the director's cut of "The Godfather"--in a part left out from the version usually seen on TV--young Michael and his father are talking in Vito Corleone's compound, after Michael has come home from Sicily. What about Sonny? the son asks. What about the bombing in Sicily? If you've forgone vengeance for all that, Pop ... .
Vito: "I swore that I would never break the peace."
Michael: "But won't they take that as a sign of weakness?"
Vito: "It is a sign of weakness."
Michael: "Well, you gave your word that you wouldn't break the peace. I didn't give mine. You don't have to have any part. I take all responsibility."
Vito, smiling: "Well, we have a lot of time to talk about it now."
The gangsters in Russia are trying to figure out where the weaknesses are now. You can bet that more bloodshed will follow.