LITTLE ROCK — A poll released Tuesday shows that U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton enjoys the strongest support among Arkansans of any of the presidential candidates, dwarfing even a native son vying for the Republican nomination.
Asked whom they'd vote for in the presidential race, 35 percent of respondents to the Arkansas Poll chose Clinton, a Democrat from New York and Arkansas' former first lady. Mike Huckabee,who ended more than a decade as Arkansas governor this year, got 8 percent, tied for second place with fellow Republican Rudy Giuliani of New York.
The responses came from this question: "If the 2008 presidential election were heldtoday, who would you vote for for president? Just tell me the name."
Twenty-eight percent said they didn't know or else they refused to answer.
The results don't necessarily mean Clinton could trounce any opponent in Arkansas or that Huckabee has little support here, said Jay Barth, a Hendrix College political scientist who studied the poll results. They do reflect the widely held perception that Clinton will win the Democratic nomination and that the Republican race is still very much open, he said.
"That indicates to me that there's a real sense that Mike Huckabee isn't going to be around to vote for," Barth said. "If by some chance Gov. Huckabee is the nominee, that would be a very different number."
The annual poll, conducted by the University of Arkansas, surveys residents on their political preferences and on issues fromgay rights to immigration.
Janine Parry, the UA political science professor who directs the poll, agreed that the results don't translate to a Clinton win in Arkansas next year.
"But you can't deny that it's promising for her, for her campaign and her supporters, to have that distance between her and the second and third choices of Arkansans, just asked in a straightout kind of way," Parry said.
Hal Bass, political science professor at Ouachita Baptist University, said it must be disappointing for Huckabee not to make double digits in a state he governed more than 10 years. It could point to a "hardheaded" notion that the former governor won't be elected, he said.
"It may well be because we're closer to Huckabee right now," said Bass, a Democrat. "We see him through a more critical lens than others might."
Huckabee, campaigning in Washington, said he was "in the same position at home as Bill Clinton was in in the fall of 1991, where people say, 'Who does he think he's kidding?' Nobody believed Bill Clinton was a serious candidate, and everybody thought, 'Oh my gosh, it is going to be embarrassing. He's going to go out there and get humiliated and make the state look bad.'"
Robert McLarty, a consultant for Hillary Clinton's Arkansas campaign, said it's nice to hear the poll results, which he said reflect a strong base of support in Arkansas. The campaign is focusing on Clinton's ties to the state and the fact that she knows so many people here personally.
"That's something we're going to continue to remind people of," he said.
Clinton has been campaigning in Arkansas, raising money and winning endorsements from most of the state's elected Democrats. She's raised more money here than any other presidential candidate. Arkansas donors have contributed $744,775 to her campaign. Huckabee has raised $665,505 in his home state.
Asked whether they'd vote in 2008 for a Republican candidate or a Democratic candidate, 49 percent picked the Democrat and 31 percent the Republican. Political scientists said that reflects the Democratic Party's strength in Arkansas going into 2008, in part based of dissatisfaction with the administration of President Bush.
Bush has a 30 percent approval rating in Arkansas, according to the poll, the lowest of his presidency and down from 36 percent in 2006.
Barth, who has played an active role in the Democratic Party, said Republican Party candidates are going to have to distance themselves from Bush in 2008.
"He's going to be, if all things stay the same, a real albatross for the Republican Party," Barthsaid.
Gov. Mike Beebe, a Democrat who is Huckabee's successor, enjoyed a 70 percent approval rating among those polled.
Parry said that even more impressive than the high favorable ratings are his low negatives: Only 9 percent of poll respondents disapproved of the job Beebe is doing.
"That really stuck out for me," Parry said. "You really don't get a stronger start than that in American politics."
Beebe took office in January with a budget surplus left over from the Huckabee administration. Beebe pushed for tax cuts, including a popular reduction of the state sales tax on groceries.
Matt DeCample, spokesman for Beebe, said the governor was humbled and excited by the poll results. It seems to show that Beebe's priorities of education and economic development are shared by Arkansans, he said.
"Of course, you can't rest on your laurels or take this for granted," DeCample said.
Bill Gwatney, chairman of the Democratic Party of Arkansas, said Beebe is seen as following through on what he said he'd do.
"If Arkansas is blue in 2008," Gwatney said, referring to voters here choosing the Democratic nominee, "whoever wins this state is going to owe Mike Beebe a lot."
Karen Ray, executive director of the Republican Party of Arkansas, said Beebe won't be on the ballot next year, and neither will Bush.
"People in this state have known Hillary Clinton for a long time, and I don't see Mike Beebe's poll numbers having any impact on how they feel about her," Ray said.
As far as the result on the presidential race, Ray said, it shows that Republicans in Arkansas are taking their time to make a decision. She said many of the 28 percent who are undecided reflect Republicans who haven't picked a favorite yet.
"I see that as a good thing," Ray said.
Of those people who responded to the poll, 65 percent said they were very closely or fairly closely following the news about presidential candidates. Sixtyone percent said they've given the 2008 election quite a lot of thought or some thought.
The percentage of people who identified themselves as Democrats rose slightly in this year's poll: 39 percent compared with 36 percent last year. Twenty-four percent identified themselves as Republicans, compared with 23 percent last year. Independents made up 30 percent of those polled, compared with 33 percent last year.
Those who identify themselves as conservative, 39 percent, outnumbered those who consider themselves to be moderate, 37 percent, or liberal, 16 percent.
Ratings for the state's two Democratic U.S. senators remained steady. Blanche Lincoln's job approval is 50 percent, up from 49 percent in 2006. Approval for Mark Pryor, who faces a re-election race next year, is 53 percent, up from 50 percent last year.
In the survey, UA's Survey Research Center polled 754 randomly selected adult Arkansans by telephone Oct. 7-18. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
Information for this article was contributed by Alex Daniels of the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette and by The Associated Press.
Front Section, Pages 1, 7 on 10/31/2007