LITTLE ROCK — Sorry, Arkansas. There will be no Hayden Simpson in this year's NBA Draft. Nope, no under-the-radar wunderkind to rival the shock waves Simpson sent around the baseball world when the Southern Arkansas University pitcher was drafted by the Cubs with the 16th pick of early June's MLB Draft. Still, Arkansas has a native — James Anderson — who figures into the equation in the first round of Thursday's NBA Draft.
Playing for Oklahoma State, Anderson, the reigning Big 12 Player of the Year, didn't toil in Division II obscurity a la Simpson. Like Magnolia native Simpson, though, Anderson is from south Arkansas, an area that hasn't produced a first-round NBA draft pick since Scottie Pippen (Hamburg) in 1987.
Indeed, Anderson will likely be only the second Arkansas native since 2001 drafted in the first round. Meanwhile, the University of Arkansas produced Michael Washington and Courtney Fortson, who are projected as possible, though unlikely, late second-round picks.
Below is my breakdown on the top five projected picks, along with draft profiles on Anderson, Washington and Fortson. Enjoy.
1. Washington — John Wall, Kentucky, 6'4" 195 lbs. — One year after selecting a ho-hum Florida baller named Jermaine Taylor, the Wizards will undoubtedly take Wall, a quicksilver phenom who gives them a true puncher’s chance against nearly any opponent. This North Carolina native may prefer his hamburgers with nothing on them, according to ESPN The Magazine, but his game has the works: a blistering first step, supreme speed, outrageous body control, ambidexterity when finishing, and a quiet confidence so great it makes Russell Crowe look like he's channeling Steve Urkel.
2. Philadelphia — Evan Turner, Ohio State, 6'7", 205 lbs. — With Elton Brand still hanging around at power forward, the 76ers will forgo Derrick Favors in order to draft Turner, a hyper-versatile point forward who could become the East's version of Brandon Roy. Lots of offense? Check. Plenty of Wins? Not yet — his selection will likely mean Philadelphia leads the league in turnovers next year. Turner, who had a triple-double with turnovers last season, will join unsteady hands with Jrue Holiday (2.1 turnovers a game) and Andrew Iguodala (2.7 turnovers a game) in the 76er backcourt.
3. New Jersey — Derrick Favors, Georgia Tech, 6'10", 246 lbs. — This team was simply one of the worst in NBA history last season, as it went 12-70 and finished 30th in the league in offense (points per game.) The safest route back to respectability is to draft a big man to complement emerging star Brook Lopez, preferably one who will not bend way down to butt heads with incoming coach Avery Johnson. Or go all petulant in a locker room lacking the kind of savvy veterans who will set him right. That's why the Nets bypass DeMarcus Cousins despite his massive frame and enormous talent, and stick with Favors, who seems much more mentally mature.
4. Minnesota — Wesley Johnson, Syracuse, 6'7", 205 lbs. — The Timberwolves join the Nets as an organization that contended for titles in the early 2000s, but is now a conference doormat. Minnesota, which ranked 29th in offense and 28th in defense (points allowed per game) last season, could use help nearly everywhere. Most needed, though, is an athletic wing to complement point guard Jonny Flynn, as well as big men Al Jefferson and Kevin Love. That's why Minnesota will pick Johnson, who blew up last season as an Orangeman after transferring from Iowa State. The explosive small forward represents another small step in a franchise rebuilding project that began three summers ago when Kevin Garnett left for Boston.
5. Sacramento — DeMarcus Cousins, Kentucky, 6'11", 270 lbs. — Barring the unlikely revelation that he is actually a North Korean spy, Cousins is too beastly to drop below this pick. The SEC's most celebrated freshman center since Shaquille O’Neal, Cousins has a chance to blossom into a wrecking ball of a man capable of leaving wide swaths of destruction through any defense he swings. As mentioned above, the 19-year-old’s body language shows he is sometimes prone to disconcerting bouts of anger and whining, though to his credit he wasn't ejected or suspended from any of his college games.
Still, for the Kings, the potential payoff here outweighs the risk. Sacramento's last All-Star caliber center was Vlade Divac, who turned flopping into an art. It's a skill many of Cousins' opponents would do well to hone.
Arkansas
James Anderson, Oklahoma State, 6'6", 215 lbs. — Called a pure pathological scoring machine, Anderson last season averaged 22.3 points per game, while shooting 46 percent on field goals and 81 percent on free throws. His draft stock soared as his junior season finished. Since then, though, it has tumbled a bit, chiefly due to pre-draft workouts that highlighted Anderson's athletic limitations. Jonathan Givony, president of DraftExpress.com, wrote that when Anderson defends on the perimeter, he exhibits "an upright stance, below average lateral quickness, and doesn't extend his frame to challenge opponents' shots." In an interview with Givony, Anderson admitted: "It's something I definitely have to improve at — becoming a better one-on-one defender."
Anderson's lack of athletic prowess may prevent him from being a dunk-happy, soft drink-shilling superstar, but through good coaching he can overcome bad defensive habits and become a very valuable NBA player. A couple of good omens: he showed steady, consistent improvement each season in Stillwater, 2) he produced 1.07 points (his own or for others) per possession, one of the highest rates among draft entrants, according to DraftExpress.com. These show that Anderson is diligent, smart and efficient, which are better indicators of future success than lane agility times. I expect him to be taken with the No. 19 pick by Boston, which is looking for Ray Allen's heir apparent.
Michael Washington, 6'10", 224 lbs. — Washington returned for his senior year on the Hill, but his NBA prospects would have been better if he'd entered the draft after his junior year, when he led the SEC in rebounding and was viewed as a player on the rise. Constant injuries, and an inability to hone his game as a senior, have helped drop Washington from most mock draft boards. His next stop is likely the NBA Development League.
Courtney Fortson, 5'11", 175 lbs. — Aggravatingly for Hogs fans, Fortson also failed to polish his game from the 08-09 to 09-10 seasons. His field goal percent dropped from 42 percent to 36 percent, and his turnovers per game rose from 4.4 to 5.1, and led the nation both seasons. He's off most mock drafts. Expect Fortson to play next season in a far more structured system in Europe, and for his coach to scream out at least three pairs of lungs.