Why Sarah Palin won’t run

LITTLE ROCK — Despite Sarah Palin’s quotes in a forthcoming New York Times Magazine profile and her remarks to Barbara Walters, I remain convinced that she won’t seek the White House in 2012.

First, the half-term governor is a whiner. Palin is still lashing out at aides to Senator John McCain for transgressions during their failed 2008 presidential campaign. She’s still complaining about the “lamestream media’s” unfairness, saying that journalists twist her record or focus obsessively on her personal life. She bemoans the “left that came out attacking me” and says “they showed me their hypocrisy.”

Republican strategist Mary Matalin is quoted in the Times saying she doesn’t know Palin well enough “to know if she’s developed the thick skin you need to be endlessly resilient, the way Reagan could take things for decades and let them roll off his back.” The answer is no, she hasn’t. Palin would have to quit whining and man up if she is to compete for the privilege of doing the toughest job on the planet.

Second, Palin’s behavior is no serious way to seek the nomination. In the Times profile, Robert Draper presents a potential candidate whose travel, writing and other pronouncements are seemingly done on the fly. She has aides with no set responsibilities. “There is no uber-strategy,” said Republican power broker Fred Malek. According to Draper, Malek gave Palin great advice last summer: Focus on amassing a good record as governor; seek a second term; develop some policy expertise; travel extensively overseas. Malek also suggested Palin generate goodwill by campaigning for fellow Republicans.

Palin resigned the governorship of Alaska the next month. Despite recent speeches on the economy and other issues, she hasn’t developed any policy expertise. Palin has yet to do any extensive overseas travel. And though she has generated goodwill by campaigning for fellow Republicans, even that hasn’t endeared her to the party faithful, especially the Tea Party base. Jon Ward wrote in the Daily Caller this week, “Perhaps the least known aspect about Sarah Palin’s relationship with the Tea Party is that though almost all in the movement love her and support her, many of them simultaneously have serious reservations about whether they want her to run for president.” The wider electorate’s disapproval of Palin remains very high.

The third, and most important, reason I think Palin won’t run for president is because she is spectacular at being a star. Look how the media hang on to her every tweet, Facebook musing or Fox appearance. She’s making money hand over fist, still has an outsize role in national politics-and none of the accountability that comes with an official declaration. Much of that would disappear if Palin jumped into the 2012 sweepstakes-a move that would prove she’s not nearly as savvy as I think she is.

Jonathan Capehart is a member of the Washington Post’s editorial page staff.