Economic slump looms in state, survey suggests

OMAHA, Neb. — Another economic slump might be developing in the Midwest and Plains states, according to a survey released Thursday of business leaders in a region that includes Arkansas.

The Mid-America Business Conditions index is based on monthly surveys of business leaders and supply managers in nine states. It includes a collection of indexes ranging from zero to 100. Survey organizers say any score above 50 suggests growth, while a score below 50 suggests decline for that factor.

In Arkansas, the overall index plummeted to 42.3 in October from September’s 49.6.

Components of the index were: new orders at 34.3; production or sales at 37.3; delivery lead time at 50.1; inventories at 50.2; and employment at 39.5.

According to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, even though the state’s unemployment rate declined in September, Arkansas lost jobs on a seasonally adjusted basis, said Creighton University economist Ernie Goss, who oversees the survey.

Discouraged job-seekers left the work force in September as well. “Our results indicate that this trend continued in October and is likely to persist for the next three to six months,” he said.

Across the region, the overall index dropped to 46.5 last month from 50.4 in September, the report said. It was 57.2 in June but fell below 50 in the following months.

“Surveys over the past several months point to slightly negative growth for the next three to six months,” Goss said. “However, as in [the] past months, two states with significant dependence on energy, North Dakota and Oklahoma, will continue to expand at a positive pace while the rest of the region pulls back.”

In addition to Arkansas, the survey covers Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma and South Dakota.