BRUSSELS — Europe’s economy is still reeling and unemployment could remain high for years in spite of the progress made in solving the debt crisis, the European Union warned Wednesday as it downgraded its forecasts for the 27-country bloc.
The European Commission, the executive arm of the EU, on Wednesday revised its forecast for the economy of the entire region, saying that it now expected the region’s gross domestic product to contract by 0.3 percent on an annual basis this year, rather than remaining flat as it predicted in the spring. It also said that the 17 countries that use the euro will contract, with GDP falling 0.4 percent, against a previous expectation of a 0.3 percent fall.
But the most significant downgrade is for next year’s forecast. The commission had expected the eurozone to find its footing in 2013, with 1 percent growth. Now it predicts only a 0.1 percent uptick. For all 27 countries in the EU, it forecasts 0.4 percent growth, compared with 1.3 percent last spring.
The report also suggests that unemployment won’t start falling until 2014 — and then only slightly.
“The ongoing post-financial crisis correction continues to weigh heavily on economic activity and employment in the EU,” the report said. “Yet, compared to the situation before the summer, over the last few months financial tensions have somewhat abated.”
Official third-quarter GDP figures for the EU and the eurozone, which will show whether the region has entered recession, are due to be released Nov. 15. A recession is defined as two quarters in a row with negative growth.
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