My Hall of Fame ballot is ready to send off, after what has become the usual two weeks of anguish and pre-emptive second-guessing. A pair of seminal ex-Seattle Mariners are checked off.
Spoiler alert: Randy Johnson is going to be elected, and Edgar Martinez isn't.
That's not a boastful prediction. It doesn't take a genius to see which way this is going -- and how unstable and maddening the Hall of Fame voting environment has become.
Johnson, at least, is above it all, in that rarefied territory reserved for the slam-dunk, no-questions-asked, first-ballot selections. Along with Pedro Martinez, also on the ballot for the first time, Johnson is of the stature where the burning question is how anyone could possibly justify NOT voting for him.
That doesn't mean they'll be unanimous, because no one is, no matter how deserving. But I'm reminded of the story of Walter Payton's nomination for Hall of Fame consideration by the Pro Football Writers. Whereas the customary NFL process is for a local scribe to present the case for a particular nominee, Cooper Rollow of the Chicago Tribune, according to legend, got up and said to the committee, "Gentlemen, Walter Payton" and sat down.
Nothing more needed to be said, just as it's barely necessary to lobby for Johnson and Pedro. Their spectacular, historic body of work speaks for itself.
Ah, but after that, it gets really dicey. Edgar is highly unlikely to come close to election because of the logjam of candidates that are stacking up "like jets on the runway."
That apt phrase comes from ESPN's Buster Olney, who announced last week that for the first time since he became eligible, he won't be voting this year. Olney is a conscientious objector to the rule that limits voters to 10 names on their ballot, which is forcing many people -- myself included -- to leave off players they feel are Hall worthy.
No mystery why this is happening. More and more players are appearing on the ballot with glittering stats and perceived steroids connections. Those players are splitting the electorate to the point that a preponderance of worthy candidates remain on the ballot year after year, unable to get the 75 percent necessary for election. And they're joined by the annual inclusion of newly eligible players, further cluttering the ballot.
I fear that Edgar is getting caught up in this dynamic. Check that -- I'm sure of it. This will be his sixth year on the ballot. He peaked with 36.5 percent in 2012, but plummeted to 25.2 percent last year.
That's an ominous trend, and it's not likely to get easier for him this year. Not only Johnson and Martinez, but also John Smoltz and Gary Sheffield are joining the ballot for the first time.
Let's be real: Martinez is always going to be a tougher sell, because of the DH factor, and the late start to his major-league career that kept down career totals in counting stats like home runs and RBI.
I happen to feel, strongly, that Martinez's hitting brilliance screams out Cooperstown. I've always been swayed by his .312/.418/.515 line for batting average, on-base-percentage and slugging percentage, making him just one of 21 players in history to go .300/.400/.500.
I could also point out that he ranks 32nd all-time with an OPS (on-base plus slugging) of .933, or that he's one of only 24 players in MLB history with eight seasons of an OPS-plus (adjusted for ballpark factors) of at least 150, or that's he's one of only 10 players in the .300 average, .400 OBP, 300-plus homer, 500-plus doubles and 1,000-plus walk club.
But I count 21 guys on the ballot I'd give strong consideration -- and five that I've voted for in the past but had to drop over the years because of the new names. This year, for instance, I gave votes to Johnson, Pedro Martinez and Smoltz, immediately replacing last year's electees, Tom Glavine, Greg Maddux and Frank Thomas.
I wanted to vote for Sheffield, but there's no room if I stuck with my holdovers from last year, which I did: Jeff Bagwell, Craig Biggio, Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Mike Piazza and Tim Raines, in addition to Martinez.
For Edgar Martinez, a Hall of Famer in waiting, it might take a vote by the Expansion-Era Committee as his ticket to Cooperstown.
Sports on 12/15/2014