Thanks again for seeing us on such short notice, doc. Things are getting curiouser and curiouser, and no telling how curiouser-er they'll get tonight. Should we watch the debate? Or should we avoid it like any other Reality show? Something tells us the whole thing is going to be a hoot. Which is why so many Americans will tune in. But should a presidential debate be a hoot? We get the feeling that tonight's show might be more along the lines of that Honey Boo Boo thing than Lincoln-Douglas.
You see, that's just it, doc. This thing long ago became a farce. A Reality TV star is leading in the polls, at least on the Republican side. Can you really make fun of a prisoner of war--an American hero by all accounts--and still be considered a presidential contender? Can you make fun of opponents, call them losers, use the words "I" and "me" in dang near every sentence, call black folks The Blacks, and even hint that you might run as a third-party candidate and stay in the lead? Apparently you can.
Still, there will be only one candidate in the Republican debate(s) tonight who has no chance to become president. Bobby Jindal? Call his chances iffy. Chris Christie? Let's be kind and say remote. Rand Paul? The Magic 8-Ball says "Very doubtful." But all three have a chance. Unlike the man who'll be at center stage.
Speaking of Rand Paul, he was supposed to be the goofy candidate who gave the establishment fits, who was supposed to be there for entertainment purposes only. It was supposed to be Rand Paul who was the angry outsider, the candidate with poll numbers that nobody could explain. He was supposed to be The Message voters would send to Republican Party elders, letting the brass know how angry the electorate really was. Rand Paul was supposed to be this year's Pat Buchanan, who would make a lot of noise, get a speaking gig at the convention, but never get close to the nomination.
But next to one candidate, a Rand Paul nomination looks positively sane.
The Donald is definitely the joker in this stacked deck tonight, but his very presence may be enough to make the dull and respectable look good, and let a normal candidate shine--like a solid rock among rhinestones. And let a Jeb Bush, Scott Walker, or even workaday John Kasich emerge from this flashy crowd. Hey, it's America; anything is possible.
Among the no-shows for tonight's performance may be simple republican dignity, but, who knows, it might walk in late--right out of the (red, white and) blue. But by now who would recognize it if it did?
Doc, what can Republican voters be thinking when they talk to pollsters? Are they so eager to stick a thumb in the eye of the establishment--and the media and the government--that they'll tell pollsters they support an angry, egotistical Reality TV celebrity? Even knowing he has no shot in the general election?
The Donald is enjoying his poll numbers--which have hovered around 20 percent in recent days. He mentions them at every stop. But here's another poll: A Quinnipiac University poll released last week shows that Bernie Sanders--the socialist from Vermont--would beat that television celebrity in the general election, 44 to 39 percent.
Bernie Sanders! Can you imagine what Hillary Clinton would do to the man? If the Republicans nominate The Donald, Democrats would win 40 states in a walk. And no telling what voter turnout would do to the House and Senate.
Doc, what's going on?
Why, yes, now that you mention it, math is on the side of sanity. In a field of a dozen-and-a-half candidates, 19 or 20 percent would be enough for a significant lead in the polls at this early point. But once the 1 percenters drop out after Iowa and New Hampshire (or even before), then the majority of Republicans--those who know a never-never presidency when they see it--will get behind one or two or three other candidates who actually have a chance. That makes sense.
And, yes, it is true that The Donald might say something any minute now that will disqualify his candidacy. That's thinking the good thought, doc.
Yes! Thanks for reminding us. Tonight, one of the other candidates is likely to bring up the fact that the man at center stage hasn't been a Republican long, and has had some mighty un-Republican things to say about health care, the Clintons, guns and abortion. Who knows, maybe the more The Donald talks and the more his political opinions come to light, the more Republicans would decide they'll want a Republican on the Republican ticket.
Doc, it's always helpful talking things through with you. Somehow time on this couch always make us feel better.
You know what? We will watch the debates tonight. Both of them. Even the undercard. Call it a civic duty.
And this weekend, who knows, maybe the next round of polls will make us feel even better.
Improbable as it seemed at the time, there have actually been moments of eloquence in presidential debates when they were still debates, not just free-for-alls. The memorable ones usually involved good humor, a quality all too scarce in today's politics. For example, there was Ronald Reagan's unforgettable rejoinder to criticism that, at 73, he was too old to be president--"I am not going to exploit, for political purposes, my opponent's youth and inexperience." Even his opponent, 56-year-old Walter Mondale, had to laugh.
And remember how big Al Gore (after some Alpha Male training) walked across the stage to stare down George W. Bush--and how Governor Bush just looked at him with a shrug and went right on? As if to say, "Oh, don't mind him. That's just Al trying to be tough." But words were unnecessary. Mr. Bush's texican glance said it all.
On the other hand, there was Barack Obama's graceless mix of condescension and contempt when he dismissed his opponent, Hillary Clinton, with an offhand snub--"You're likable enough, Hillary."
Here's hoping for some good humor tonight, not just the usual collection of one-liners and appeals to the lowest common denominator of an electorate whose standards need to be raised, not lowered even further.
Editorial on 08/06/2015