On paper, the Kentucky Derby hints at American Pharoah and Dortmund, the one-two favorites in the morning line, as being the horses to beat.
Like the 140 Derbies before this one, this one will be run on dirt with a 20-horse field, so anything can happen.
American Pharoah is coming off an incredibly impressive victory in the Arkansas Derby, where he posted a speed figure of 105, but that would have been higher if jockey Victor Espinoza hadn't let up a few jumps before the finish.
American Pharoah's stablemate, Dortmund, is coming off an easy victory in the Santa Anita Derby. He is undefeated in six starts, and there are a couple of things that indicate maybe he should be the favorite. In November, trainer Bob Baffert flew Dortmund to Churchill Downs to run in an optional claiming race with a price tag of $75,000.
Dortmund won by almost eight lengths and was no longer an option. He couldn't be claimed.
American Pharoah also drew the No. 18 post, which means he will have extra ground to make up in this 1 1/4-mile race. Both horses like to run on the lead, and there is a ton of speed in this race with five others having shown a preference to be in front.
Another undefeated horse with a great bloodline -- one that also will offer a better price for bettors -- is Materiality, who won the Florida Derby and has the fastest speed figure (110) of any hopeful in the race.
Like the favorites, he prefers to run on the front. One note of caution: Jockey John Velazquez had his choice of mounts as the top rider for trainer Todd Pletcher, and he chose Carpe Diem, winner of the Blue Grass Stakes and Tampa Bay Derby.
Another horse who might have gotten some play is Upstart, the beaten favorite in the Florida Derby, but he drew the No. 19 post.
Frosted also was singed by the post draw by getting No. 15, but the winner of the Wood Memorial appears to be a horse who is improving rapidly. He's also the only horse in the race who has won coming from off the pace and setting the pace, so obviously he's talented.
The best price in the field might be International Star, who comes from off the pace. He has won all three of his races this year, including the Louisiana Derby. He also raced at Churchill in November, but in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, finishing fourth behind winner El Kabeir.
El Kabeir has won four of nine starts and has placed and showed twice. If the rail opens up down the stretch, he might make a move since he is ridden by Calvin Borel, the king of the rail riders.
While American Pharoah will be the sentimental favorite -- any horse that wins the Rebel Stakes and the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park practically becomes an Arkie bred -- Far Right owner Harry Rosenblum and trainer Ron Moquett aren't running because of Derby Fever.
Far Right is a closer, and he will be near the back of the pack coming down the backstretch and will look to finish with a kick. Expect him to hit the board.
In summary, it is really hard to pick a winner of the Kentucky Derby any time there are 20 horses, some of whom look more like Rodney Parham road blockers without the cellphones.
American Pharoah looks like the real deal. He's regally bred, has trained well and blew away the clockers last Sunday when he worked five furlongs in 58.2 seconds and made it look easy.
One way to make a little money might be by betting an Oaklawn Special, taking Include Betty, winner of the Fantasy Stakes, and Oceanwave, who finished second, in today's Kentucky Oaks, then combine them with American Pharoah in the Oaks-Derby double.
Sports on 05/01/2015