WASHINGTON -- Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee has hurdles to overcome if he doesn't want his 2016 presidential bid to look like his 2008 race, two political scientists said Tuesday.
Signs Huckabee is trying to make this campaign different were evident in the former pastor's fiery announcement speech in Hope on Tuesday, which made a play for the social conservatives that made up his base in 2008, but also touched on foreign policy and economic populism, with calls for higher wages and protecting Social Security.
Huckabee won eight state nominating contests, including the Iowa caucus, in 2008, but was hobbled by weak fundraising and an inability to expand his base beyond evangelical voters.
Huckabee, now a Florida resident, is the sixth Republican to enter the race, and several more people have said they are considering a run.
Huckabee will have to work harder to differentiate himself from the other social conservatives, said Geoffrey Skelley, associate editor of "Sabato's Crystal Ball," the University of Virginia Center for Politics' nonpartisan newsletter on American campaigns and elections.
"He may have a couple of candidates who are really fighting with him for similar voters," Skelley said. "His base of support this time around may be even more divided."
He said other candidates like U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas and retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson or potential candidates like former U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania are also angling for the vote of social conservatives.
Skelley said Cruz has stronger financial support, is well-known among Republicans and is Huckabee's biggest threat.
"Huckabee has been out of politics directly for a bit now, whereas Cruz has definitely been in the action," Skelley said.
The center refers to Huckabee on its website as an "evangelical favorite" along with Carson and Santorum. It says Huckabee has the benefit of already being vetted in 2008 and being well-known from his Fox News program.
It also says Huckabee will have to contend with a small fundraising base, party leaders who don't see him as electable and the economic conservative wing of the party, which thinks he's too much of a populist.
The Huckabee campaign disputes the idea that only evangelicals like the former Baptist preacher. Late last month, supporter and pollster Bob Wickers released a memo stressing several polls showing voters favor Huckabee more than former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida and other candidates.
"Gov. Huckabee enjoys broad-based popularity and support among all Republicans, including Evangelicals, low to middle income voters, and seniors -- making him extremely well-positioned to launch a winning campaign for the Republican nomination for President," it states.
Whether people liking Huckabee will be enough to make them vote for him, or support him financially, isn't clear.
Gary Wekkin, a political science professor at the University of Central Arkansas, said people who met Huckabee in the 2008 race liked him. "He was not well enough known, however, to raise money," Wekkin said. "People would vote for him, but donors wouldn't give."
Huckabee has had years of exposure through his Fox News show and radio programs to appeal to new voters, Wekkin said.
"Probably he has increased his name recognition, but has that translated into increasing his base of support? I don't know," Wekkin said.
The most recent poll on the 2016 race, released Monday by NBC News and the Wall Street Journal, found 52 percent of respondents who were registered voters planning to vote in a Republican primary could see themselves voting for Huckabee, but only 5 percent would pick him as their first choice. Bush, who hasn't entered the race, was the first choice of 23 percent of respondents; Rubio was the choice of 18 percent. The poll of 1,000 adults was conducted by phone April 26-April 30 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percent.
In 10 polls released over the past two months by a variety of outlets, including CNN, FOX and ABC, Huckabee hasn't polled above 10 percent.
Dozens of polls conducted over the same time period by multiple media outlets in the 2008 race showed Huckabee with less than 4 percent, according to data collected by Real Clear Politics. Polls began showing Huckabee with support above 10 percent in December 2007, peaking at about 29 percent in February 2008.
In 2008, Huckabee won primaries in Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Tennessee and Louisiana, as well as the Kansas and Iowa caucuses and the West Virginia nominating convention.
Huckabee has said he probably needs to win Iowa again and make a strong showing in New Hampshire before several Southern states plan to hold the so-called SEC primary March 1.
Wekkin said Huckabee could have luck again in the retail politics of Iowa and several Southern states, but "he's got a tough road ahead of him" in the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic and Great Lakes regions. Huckabee has a better chance in the mountain West, Southwest and Plains states regions, he said.
Huckabee was plagued with low fundraising numbers throughout the 2008 race, with his $16 million being dwarfed by McCain's $368 million and Romney's $107 million, according to reports filed with the Federal Election Commission.
New this time is a 2010 Supreme Court decision allowing outside groups to raise and spend unlimited amounts of money on campaigns through "super" political action committees. Huckabee's supporters created such a group, called Pursuing America's Greatness, in March.
"The last time Huckabee ran, they didn't exist; that wasn't the system people were operating under," Skelley said. "You really just need one very rich person in your corner, and you can hang around."
But, Wekkin said, many big donors may coalesce around Bush, and many viable candidates may find themselves without funding.
"Jeb Bush is going to make it very difficult for all of the Republican wannabes ... to raise money," he said.
Like in 2008, Huckabee will have to contend with the fiscally conservative wing of the Republican Party.
Before Huckabee made his bid official, anti-tax group Club For Growth announced a $100,000 ad buy in Greenville, S.C., and Sioux City, Iowa, starting today. The ad says that both state spending and the individual tax burden for Arkansans increased in the years Huckabee was governor.
Huckabee's staff has disputed the club's points, saying his record also shows cuts, such as doubling the child-care tax credit and eliminating capital-gains taxes on home sales, both in 1997.
Metro on 05/06/2015