The elements are fluid for officials trying to predict possible flooding of the Red River in the next week.
Saturated ground, the amount of water flowing into the area lakes, streams and creeks, and the prediction of more heavy rains along the Red River starting in West Texas near Wichita Falls, extending to Southwest Arkansas, Northeast Texas and Northeast Louisiana, are all factors.
In Lafayette County, state and federal officials held a conference call Thursday to discuss the rising Red River, which flows on the western border of the county. Discussion focused on the potential for flooding in Little River, Miller and Lafayette counties in Arkansas and Bowie County, Texas.
"The National Weather Service has predicted that Lafayette County will experience a degree of flooding equal to or worse than what we experienced in 1990," County Judge Mike Rowe said.
"We're issuing these statements as a precautionary word. The prediction for the river -- and we're going to take them at their word -- will be at flood stage. We're not trying to alarm people, but we want to make sure there is as much information available and pass it along to the land and property owners," said Danny Ormand, emergency management coordinator and former sheriff of Lafayette County.
"The information is pretty solid coming from the Vicksburg, [Miss.,] and Little Rock U.S. Army Corps of Engineers offices," said Larry Pritchett, Miller County emergency services coordinator.
He said Miller County has obtained about 28,000 sand bags, and 3,000 were filled Friday by Arkansas Department of Correction prisoners.
The conference call included Corps of Engineers and National Weather Service representatives, staff members for U.S. Rep. Bruce Westerman and Lafayette County elected officials.
Don Hale Jr., Little River County Office of Emergency Management coordinator, said the county has alerted volunteers already, since the 1990 flooding had the two bridges closed connecting Arkansas with Texas. The Arkansas 41 bridge was extensively damaged and had to be rebuilt.
"We're trying to be proactive and get ahead of Mother Nature. It's difficult dealing with Mother Nature. Sometimes you have to stand back and clean up the mess instead," Pritchett said.
Rowe issued an advisory for Lafayette County property owners inside the Red River levee recommending that livestock and equipment be moved to higher ground and away from the levee, and that residents living inside the levee area be ready to evacuate if the river rises as predicted by National Weather Service.
Rowe also advised those who rent or lease property inside the levee to contact the owners of that property and let them know about possible flooding.
The weather service flood warning continues for the Red River at Pecan Point near DeKalb, Texas, until further notice.
The weather service statement confirms minor flooding at Pecan Point and predicts major flooding by today and into the week.
The river's level Friday afternoon was already a foot abovethe flood stage of 24 feet. By today, that section is likely to hit 30.3 feet, at which point 3,000 acres of farmland and pasture will flood. Levels are forecast to fall after that.
"Our emergency management team will coordinate communications to those who have the potential to be affected by a possible flood. The team will continue to monitor the evolving situation and communicate any additional advisories or warning necessary to ensure the safety of the residents of Lafayette County," Rowe said.
According to the weather service statement, much of the floodplain at Pecan Point is inundated, and additional heavy rainfall is possible over the next week for the entire Upper Red River basin.
Six inches or more of rain are possible through the week across the Red River and its tributaries in southern Oklahoma and northern Texas, and the ground in much of that area is already saturated. Nearly all of the Red River tributaries remain above flood stage.
The weather service also advises area farmers, ranchers and residents on the Red River to closely monitor the weather and Red River stages through the first week of June.
A major flood event could develop this week, according to meteorologists.
On the Texas side, Bowie County's county judge, James Carlow, said crews have been checking the levees and making repairs.
"We're doing everything as a precaution. Everything depends on how much rain we get in the next few days," he said.
The Corps of Engineers is trying to control the Millwood Lake level and return it to normal as quickly as possible, said Steve Spicer, operations manager for the Millwood Lake Project Office.
"We don't need any more rain," Spicer said.
The normal pool elevation level for Millwood is 259.2 feet. The current level is 267.75 feet, nearly 8 feet above normal. The corps is releasing 45,000 cubic feet per second into the Little River, which flows into the Red River.
The record for Millwood Lake was 282 feet, about 5 feet below the maximum. That occurred in 1968, about two years after the lake was completed.
"It's hard to predict right now. The weather service was predicting 3 inches of rain Sunday and 3.5 inches of rain [today]," Spicer said.
The river levels will depend on the rain as far west as Wichita Falls, Texas, where the weather service had predicted about 7 inches of rain during the weekend.
Some of the runoff will flow into the Red River at Wichita Falls and then continue east to Lake Texoma. If the rain causes the spillway to overflow at Texoma, the excess will be difficult to control, said Paul Balkenbush, Corps of Engineers assistant project manager at Lake Texoma.
"We're predicting it will be 1 foot below flood level, but it depends on the rain," he said.
"We're waiting and watching the dynamics. It's changing every day," Balkenbush said. The elevation of Lake Texoma Friday afternoon was 637.56 feet and rising. The elevation is forecast to rise to flood stage, which is 640 feet, by today.
"The hydrologists are working 24/7 to determine the level of the water and the speed it's moving and doing the math to determine how much water is coming down the river," he said.
Water is being released into the river through both hydropower generators at full capacity of 9,000 cubic feet per second. The three flood conduits there release 26,140 cubic feet per second into the river, for a total of 35,140 cubic feet per second.
"The schedule for all releases is subject to downstream river stage conditions and the condition of other reservoirs in the lower Red River basin," according to the corps report.
State Desk on 05/25/2015