Consumer confidence up again

Steady job market helps raise September index to 103

A cashier helps a shopper swipe a credit card at a grocery store in Miami’s Little Havana neighborhood in June. A business research group said Tuesday that its consumer confidence index rose in September after surging in August.
A cashier helps a shopper swipe a credit card at a grocery store in Miami’s Little Havana neighborhood in June. A business research group said Tuesday that its consumer confidence index rose in September after surging in August.

WASHINGTON -- U.S. consumers were feeling more confident again this month, adding good news for the economy.

The Conference Board, a business research group, said Tuesday that its consumer confidence index rose again to 103 in September after surging in August to 101.3. The September reading was the highest since January. Economists had expected the index to fall this month.

"Gasoline prices are down and unemployment rates are down," said Stan Shipley, an economist at Evercore ISI in New York. "That's a good combination for consumer confidence."

Consumers' assessment of present economic conditions hit the highest level in eight years. More than 25 percent of Americans said jobs were plentiful, the highest share since September 2007.

Expectations for the future fell slightly. Compared with August, however, a bigger share of Americans said they were planning to buy cars and homes over the next six months.

The Conference Board's data also showed Americans' assessments of future labor-market conditions were little changed. The proportion of consumers expecting more jobs to become available in the next six months rose to 15 percent in September from 14.9 percent.

Steady job gains should help underpin sentiment. Payrolls have climbed by an average 212,000 a month this year, while the unemployment rate lingers at a more than seven-year low of 5.1 percent, Labor Department data show. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey before the agency's September employment report on Friday calls for an increase of about 200,000 jobs.

A firming labor market may help ease concern stemming from stock-market volatility. Through Monday, the S&P 500 was down 8.8 percent in the third quarter and almost 12 percent below its all-time high set in May.

The U.S. economy is looking healthy. Economic growth came in at a 3.9 percent annual rate from April through June, and unemployment has dropped to a seven-year low, 5.1 percent.

But worries about an economic slowdown in China and other emerging markets have rattled financial markets.

"The surprising improvement in confidence suggests that the recent international turbulence has had little impact on consumers' domestic confidence," economist Bricklin Dwyer of BNP Paribas wrote in a research note. "We expect consumption to continue to expand at a solid pace throughout the end of 2015."

Consumer spending accounts for about 70 percent of U.S. economic activity.

Still, another gauge of consumers' spirits -- the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index -- fell this month to the lowest level in almost a year. Richard Curtin, chief economist for the Michigan survey, blamed the drop on worries that troubles overseas will hurt hiring and wages in the United States.

Information for this article was contributed by Paul Wiseman of The Associated Press and Ali Donaldson and Jordan Yadoo of Bloomberg News.

Business on 09/30/2015

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