O say can you see: From Ottumwa to Oskaloosa, Osceola to Osage, Ossian to Odebolt, the Iowans have spoken. The rocket's red glare of this bombastic Republican campaign instantly illuminates New Hampshire (Feb. 9 primary), South Carolina (Feb. 20 primary) and Nevada (Feb. 23 caucuses).
And just like that, the race changes. Donald Trump led the national polls, he dominated the national conversation. But after Iowa Republicans got a crack at him, he didn't look so invincible. America awoke Tuesday to some wry questions: Was Trump ever as "yuge" as he claimed? How will he wear the loser label he has imposed on so many others? And as the 2016 GOP campaign exits Iowa, will he now be recast from king to court jester?
Iowa's job was to winnow the candidates, to begin downsizing a field that has kept the vast center of the U.S. Republican population's bell curve from gravitating toward one potentially electable nominee.
But winnowing works only when the chaff realizes it isn't the wheat. Given the large number of candidates and this year's relatively compressed calendar, the mainstream candidates who have no realistic prospect of being that nominee should swiftly accept that fate.
We aren't calling out anyone in particular but, well, you know who you are. Especially after Iowa Republicans, who've respectfully heard you out, rendered their verdict on you.
The risk is that if every candidate who appeals to mainstream Republicans stays in the race, then no one who appeals to mainstream Republicans will have the throw weight to counter Ted Cruz and Trump.
Republican voters throughout the country deserve a race more focused than these earliest contests. Asking them, too, to keep sorting through this bevy of candidates intensifies that risk.
Look at it this way, GOP candidates:
In 2012, the general election outcome was decided by 5 percentage points or less in only four states. Every other state went comfortably for Barack Obama or Mitt Romney. Now Google the phrase "swing states 2016." You'll find a Politico map that identifies, in corn-stubble yellow, this year's seven swingiest swing states. Three of the seven are Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada, states where Republicans make their choices this month.
So, candidates, if you can't come close to winning these three states when only your fellow Republicans are voting, what are the odds you'll win them in November when Democrats, independents and other voters will choose their man or woman for president?
We've seen the courage it takes to run hard, to open oneself to scrutiny, to survive slings and arrows from hecklers and opponents. What we can't imagine is the courage it takes to stop.
Editorial on 02/04/2016