President Trump described a “bad and very complex hand” left to him by his predecessor. Actually, Barack Obama could have said the same. Such is Afghanistan. The Trump White House has been weighing how to move ahead in the frustrating, 16-year war, pushing back deadlines as the debate continued. On Monday evening, before a nationally televised audience, the president outlined his strategy.
That reference to “bad and very complex hand” was part political cover. Candidate Trump harshly criticized devoting substantial resources to Afghanistan (roughly $715 billion so far). What he called a “total disaster” didn’t seem to fit with his idea of America First.
Yet, as the president acknowledged in his speech, things look different from the Oval Office. In that way, news accounts of the White House decision-making process have provided a rare dose of reassurance, the deliberation a departure from the more prevalent by-the-gut or seat-of-the-tweet approach.
The president talked about a “clear definition” of victory, “attacking our enemies, obliterating ISIS, crushing al-Qaida, preventing the Taliban from taking over the country and stopping mass terror attacks against Americans before they emerge.” Obama held the same view, that the American presence was essentially about preventing another Sept. 11 attack.
Recall the Obama surge: American troop levels reaching 100,000. At the same time, Obama faced the war-weariness that Trump tapped in his campaign. Thus, Obama set the much criticized deadline for bringing troops home.
There are no good choices in Afghanistan. An American withdrawal would leave the field open to the Taliban, which currently controls 40 percent of the country, not to mention creating room for ISIS, al-Qaida and related terrorist organizations. There hardly is an appetite for increased troop levels to 50,000 or more, launching an effort that would result in higher numbers of casualties, the toll of American dead in the Afghan fight now nearly 2,400.
So the president landed in a place close to where Hillary Clinton likely would have stood. Reports point to a troop increase of 4,000 or so, taking the total to 12,500 American service members. The troops will focus on counter-terrorism and support for Afghan forces. They will aim at preventing further loss of ground to the Taliban and a narrowing of already limited options.
The president has made much about not setting a withdrawal deadline. If that is part of what he called “principled realism,” it reinforces a hard truth: There is no military victory in the foreseeable future. The president has outlined a holding action, and in highlighting the harmful role of Pakistan, which enables the Taliban insurgency, he alludes to the necessary endgame.