Receivers, 3-4 switch unknowns
Ten frequently asked questions regarding the 2017 Arkansas Razorbacks:
1.Will the switch to a 3-4 front improve the Arkansas run defense?
It’s difficult to think of a scenario where the Razorbacks allow 39 rushing touchdowns — three per game!! — or 5.9 yards per carry ever again. So, the bad rush defense numbers should come down across the board in the first year for coordinator Paul Rhoads.
Maybe a more apropos question would be: Will the switch to the 3-4 pay big dividends? There are nuances to resolve that question. To answer it requires factoring in what observers say is an improved buy-in level after a trying year under coordinator Robb Smith, who could not recreate the defensive magic of 2014.
2.Will the inexperienced receiving corps deliver a solid season?
There is enough historical data regarding position coach Michael Smith’s background to say “yes,” and Smith assured the media he’s not worried about this group. A solid year begins with a healthy Jared Cornelius, whose issues with a tight back are a concern. La’Michael Pettway, a potential star, received an early camp message from Coach Bret Bielema and responded. Pettway, fellow sophomore Deon Stewart, transfer Jonathan Nance and freshman Jordan Jones emerged as go-to targets in camp, with Cornelius and top transfer Brandon Martin slowed. Koilan Jackson looks ready to be the earliest contributor from a standout rookie class.
3.What’s a reasonable count for sacks allowed after the Hogs gave up 35 in 2016?
Allowing less than 1.5 sacks per game translates to 18 or fewer in a 12-game regular season. Less than that and it should be a banner season for the Hogs’ passing game. Allow 20 or more, and they’ve permitted quarterback Austin Allen to take too many hits and crimped the effectiveness of the pass game. Over-under: 17.5.
4.Will Arkansas break its lengthy losing streaks against Alabama and Texas A&M?
No and yes.
The Crimson Tide is a recruiting machine and Nick Saban’s defensive schemes impressed upon a pack of four- and five-star athletes typically leads to sterling statistics. The Razorbacks came really close to snapping their streak against the Tide in 2010 and 2014, but those were at home. Beating Alabama on the road is another beast altogether.
Texas A&M is a different story. Arkansas has outplayed the Aggies for stretches in each of the past three games at AT&T Stadium, but has twice lost in overtime and struggled inside the 5 last year. Give this one to the hungry, hungry Hogs, with the Aggies projecting to be less dynamic at quarterback.
5.Can the Razorbacks average 200 rushing and passing yards per game?
Almost. Bret Bielema’s teams regularly averaged 200 rushing and 200 passing yards per game at Wisconsin, but he hasn’t been able to reach that milestone at Arkansas. The Razorbacks came close in 2015, when they averaged 268 passing yards and 197 rushing yards in their first season with coordinator Dan Enos.
6.Will the Razorbacks produce a 1,000-yard rusher for the fifth consecutive season?
Certainly. Devwah Whaley should get enough action to surpass the 1,000-yard plateau as a sophomore to give Arkansas six 1,000-yard rushers in the past five years. He could approach 1,200 yards if the Hogs kick their run game up a notch, and graduate transfer David Williams could hit the 600-yard mark as Whaley did last year if he can get 130 with a 4.7-yard average. It looks as if Chase Hayden, Maleek Williams and T.J. Hammonds will be the next three ball carriers.
7.Will the secondary be much improved?
The signs say yes. Far too often, when the Razorbacks’ defensive edge was breached last year, a defensive back was either blocked, screened, took a bad angle or whiffed. Solid tackling is expected to be a hallmark for coordinator Paul Rhoads. The group was a much better cover team in 2016 and should maintain that ability this fall, led by corners Ryan Pulley, Henre’ Toliver and Kevin Richardson. Improved tackling at safety, led by Santos Ramirez, De’Andre Coley and Josh Liddell is the key to a better year.
8.Is there enough depth at linebacker to be effective in the base 3-4?
This has always been the underlying concern with the scheme switch. The outside positions will lend themselves to “hybrid” types, both ends and safeties, enabling them to stack personnel, and the Razorbacks have adjusted their recruiting designs to fit the scheme. Keeping Dre Greenlaw and De’Jon Harris healthy in the middle is paramount to a big jump in performance. The big question is whether the depth will hold this fall.
9.Will Arkansas rank in the top 25 in total offense, defense or in the polls?
Tricky, tricky. It will be difficult for the last season’s No. 76 defense to move up 51 spots. The offense, No. 54 with 428.4 yards per game, will need pick up about 40 yards per game, probably on the ground, to reach the top 25. We’ll predict a No. 29 final slot here. If the Razorbacks beat well-regarded TCU on Sept. 9 and get over the Texas A&M hump two weeks later, they could start 5-0 and are definitely in the top 25 heading into Tuscaloosa, Ala. Beyond that, we’ll see.
10.Will Arkansas improve on its 7-6 record in 2016?
Yes.
The forecast is projecting an 8-4 regular season record for Arkansas. For record-picking purposes, we assigned two games — at Alabama and at LSU — as losses, five games as victories and these games as tossups: TCU, vs. Texas A&M, at South Carolina, Auburn and at Ole Miss.
We have guessed the Razorbacks will go 3-2 in those swing games. In this scenario, if Arkansas wins a third bowl game in four seasons under Bret Bielema, the Razorbacks would hit the nine-victory plateau for the first time under Bielema.